论世界能源体系的双重变革与中国的能源转型
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摘要
21世纪以来,世界能源体系发生了双重变革。其中,以页岩油气开发为代表的非常规油气革命缓解了能源市场紧张的供求关系,并使得油气资源的供应日益多元化;在政策引导与技术进步的影响下,可再生能源产业也得到了稳步的发展,已经开始了对传统化石能源的替代进程。从能源替代的角度看,这双重变革间存在着竞争性与矛盾性,但若考虑到更多的现实性因素,并从能源政治经济学等更广的角度看,两者则具有互补性与统一性。国际能源体系的双重变革对各国能源战略产生了深刻影响。其中,美国决定恢复对传统能源产业的扶持,而德国则仍坚持促进可再生能源产业的发展。在高碳能源结构仍将持续、能源峰值尚未到来的情况下,中国应采取以保障能源安全为核心,兼顾环保的能源转型思路。在具体的实施层面,中国应注重能源转型战略设计的整体性、前瞻性以及政策制定与执行的连续性。此外,还应推动能源外交的升级,通过加强能源制度性权力与输出能源开发能力,力争成为此轮国际能源转型的重要引领者。
Since the 21 st century, the world energy system has witnessed two important changes. Unconventional oil and gas revolution, represented by the exploitation of shale oil and gas, alleviates the supply-demand relationship in the energy market, and increases the diversity of oil and gas supply. In the meanwhile, driven by policy guidance and technological progress, the renewable energy industry has also developed steadily, and begins to replace traditional fossil energy. From the perspective of energy substitution, there are competitiveness and contradictions between the two changes. However, from a broader perspective such as the political economy of energy, with more realistic factors into consideration, the two changes are complementary and unified. The dual change of the international energy system has profound impacts on the energy strategies of various countries. Among them, the US decides to restore support for traditional energy, while Germany still insists on promoting the development of renewable energy industries. In the background that the high-carbon energy structure will continue and the energy peak has not yet arrived, the guiding principle of China's energy transition should focus on the protection of energy security, taking into account environmental protection. At the implementation level, China should pay attention that the energy transition strategy should be comprehensive and forward-looking, and the continuity of policy formulation and execution should be highlighted. Furthermore, China should promote the upgrade of energy diplomacy, strengthen the energy institutional power, and export energy exploitation capability, with the aim to become an important leader in the international energy transition.
Since the 21 st century, the world energy system has witnessed two important changes. Unconventional oil and gas revolution, represented by the exploitation of shale oil and gas, alleviates the supply-demand relationship in the energy market, and increases the diversity of oil and gas supply. In the meanwhile, driven by policy guidance and technological progress, the renewable energy industry has also developed steadily, and begins to replace traditional fossil energy. From the perspective of energy substitution, there are competitiveness and contradictions between the two changes. However, from a broader perspective such as the political economy of energy, with more realistic factors into consideration, the two changes are complementary and unified. The dual change of the international energy system has profound impacts on the energy strategies of various countries. Among them, the US decides to restore support for traditional energy, while Germany still insists on promoting the development of renewable energy industries. In the background that the high-carbon energy structure will continue and the energy peak has not yet arrived, the guiding principle of China's energy transition should focus on the protection of energy security, taking into account environmental protection. At the implementation level, China should pay attention that the energy transition strategy should be comprehensive and forward-looking, and the continuity of policy formulation and execution should be highlighted. Furthermore, China should promote the upgrade of energy diplomacy, strengthen the energy institutional power, and export energy exploitation capability, with the aim to become an important leader in the international energy transition.
引文
(1)朱彤、王蕾著:《国家能源转型:德、美实践与中国选择》,浙江大学出版社,2015年版,第216页。
(2)“BP Stats Review 2018 All Data”, BP, June 13, 2018, https://www.bp.com/content/dam/bp/business-sites/en/global/corporate/xlsx/energy-economics/statistical-review/bp-stats-review-2018-all-data.xlsx.
(3)管清友、李君臣:“美国页岩气革命与全球政治经济格局”,《国际经济评论》,2013年第2期,第24页。
(4)同①,第215页。
(5)同②。
(6)“Dry Shale Gas Production Estimates by Play”, U.S. Energy Information Administration, March 21, 2019, https://www.eia.gov/naturalgas/weekly/img/shale_gas_201902.xlsx.
(7)“U.S. Tight Oil Production”, U.S. Energy Information Administration, February 31, 2019, https://www.eia.gov/energyexplained/data/U.S.%20tight%20oil%20production.xlsx.
(8)“Total Petroleum and Other Liquids Production 2017”, U.S. Energy Information Administration, December 31, 2018, https://www.eia.gov/beta/international/rankings/#?iso=CAN&cy=2017.
(9)“Country Analysis Brief: Brazil”, U.S. Energy Information Administration, November 21, 2017, https://www.eia.gov/beta/international/analysis_includes/countries_long/Brazil/brazil.pdf.
(10)穆龙新:“委内瑞拉奥里诺科重油带开发现状与特点”,《石油勘探与开发》,2010年第3期,第338-343页。
(11)“BP Stats Review 2018 All Data”, BP, June 13, 2018, https://www.bp.com/content/dam/bp/business-sites/en/global/corporate/xlsx/energy-economics/statistical-review/bp-stats-review-2018-all-data.xlsx.
(12)[美]丹尼尔·耶金著,朱玉犇、阎志敏译:《能源重塑世界》(上),石油工业出版社,2012年版,第231页。
(13)IEA, World Energy Outlook 2017, International Energy Agency, 2017, p. 94.
(14)同①。
(15)[美]丹尼尔·耶金著,朱玉犇、阎志敏译:《能源重塑世界》(上),石油工业出版社,2012年版,第167页。
(16)REN21, Renewables Global Status Report 2017, REN21 Secretariat, 2017, p. 91.
(17)高慧、杨艳、饶利波等:“全球可再生能源发展态势分析”,《国际石油经济》,2016年第4期,第3页。
(18)BP Stats Review 2018 All Data”, BP, June 13, 2018, https://www.bp.com/content/dam/bp/business-sites/en/global/corporate/xlsx/energy-economics/statistical-review/bp-stats-review-2018-all-data.xlsx.
(19)UNEP, Global Trends in Renewable Energy Investment 2017, Frankfurt School – UNEP Collaborating Centre, 2017, pp. 33-34.
(20)UNEP, Global Trends in Renewable Energy Investment 2018, Frankfurt School – UNEP Collaborating Centre, 2018, p. 21.
(21)高慧、杨艳、饶利波等:“全球可再生能源发展态势分析”,《国际石油经济》,2016年第4期,第2页。
(22)BP Energy Outlook 2035, BP, 2017, pp. 40-43.
(23)彭峰:“欧盟能源绿色化政策的新发展及启示”,《环境保护》,2016年第9期,第31页。
(24)朱彤、王蕾著:《国家能源转型:德、美实践与中国选择》,浙江大学出版社,2015年版,第187页。
(25)何露杨:“巴西气候变化政策及其谈判立场的解读与评价”,《拉丁美洲研究》,2016年第2期,第85-86页。
(26)Vaclav Smil, Energy Transitions: History, Requirements, Prospects, Santa Barbara: Praeger, 2010, p. 63.
(27)Bruce Podobnik, Global Energy Shifts: Fostering Sustainability in a Turbulent Age, Philadelphia: Temple University Press, 2006, p. 4.
(28)朱彤、王蕾著:《国家能源转型:德、美实践与中国选择》,浙江大学出版社,2015年版,第76页。
(29)第一次能源革命指的是煤炭对柴薪燃料的替代。
(30)UNEP, Global Trends in Renewable Energy Investment 2017, Frankfurt School-UNEP Collaborating Centre, 2017, p. 11.
(31)Elena Verdolini, Francesco Vona, David Popp, “Bridging the Gap: Do Fast Reacting Fossil Technologies Facilitate Renewable Energy Diffusion?” National Bureau of Economic Research, July 2016, https://www.nber.org/papers/w22454.pdf.
(32)于宏源:“特朗普政府气候政策的调整及影响”,《太平洋学报》,2018年第1期,第25页。
(33)金乐琴:“能源结构转型的目标与路径:美国、德国的比较及启示”,《经济问题探索》,2016年第2期,第166-167页。
(34)张立锋、冯红霞:“德国《可再生能源法》的演进及对中国的启示”,《河北法学》,2017年第10期,第119页。
(35)胡光宇著:《能源体制革命:中国能源政策发展概论》,清华大学出版社,2016年版,第53页。
(36)IRENA, Renewable Capacity Statistics 2018, Masdar: International Renewable Energy Agency, 2018, p.2.
(37)张晗:“非常规油气的‘常规’之路”,《中国石油报》,2017年7月17日,第1版。
(38)朱彤、王蕾著:《国家能源转型:德、美实践与中国选择》,浙江大学出版社,2015年版,第255-256页。
(39)郇庆治:“‘碳政治’的生态帝国主义逻辑批判及其超越”,《中国社会科学》,2016年第3期,第24-41页。
(2)“BP Stats Review 2018 All Data”, BP, June 13, 2018, https://www.bp.com/content/dam/bp/business-sites/en/global/corporate/xlsx/energy-economics/statistical-review/bp-stats-review-2018-all-data.xlsx.
(3)管清友、李君臣:“美国页岩气革命与全球政治经济格局”,《国际经济评论》,2013年第2期,第24页。
(4)同①,第215页。
(5)同②。
(6)“Dry Shale Gas Production Estimates by Play”, U.S. Energy Information Administration, March 21, 2019, https://www.eia.gov/naturalgas/weekly/img/shale_gas_201902.xlsx.
(7)“U.S. Tight Oil Production”, U.S. Energy Information Administration, February 31, 2019, https://www.eia.gov/energyexplained/data/U.S.%20tight%20oil%20production.xlsx.
(8)“Total Petroleum and Other Liquids Production 2017”, U.S. Energy Information Administration, December 31, 2018, https://www.eia.gov/beta/international/rankings/#?iso=CAN&cy=2017.
(9)“Country Analysis Brief: Brazil”, U.S. Energy Information Administration, November 21, 2017, https://www.eia.gov/beta/international/analysis_includes/countries_long/Brazil/brazil.pdf.
(10)穆龙新:“委内瑞拉奥里诺科重油带开发现状与特点”,《石油勘探与开发》,2010年第3期,第338-343页。
(11)“BP Stats Review 2018 All Data”, BP, June 13, 2018, https://www.bp.com/content/dam/bp/business-sites/en/global/corporate/xlsx/energy-economics/statistical-review/bp-stats-review-2018-all-data.xlsx.
(12)[美]丹尼尔·耶金著,朱玉犇、阎志敏译:《能源重塑世界》(上),石油工业出版社,2012年版,第231页。
(13)IEA, World Energy Outlook 2017, International Energy Agency, 2017, p. 94.
(14)同①。
(15)[美]丹尼尔·耶金著,朱玉犇、阎志敏译:《能源重塑世界》(上),石油工业出版社,2012年版,第167页。
(16)REN21, Renewables Global Status Report 2017, REN21 Secretariat, 2017, p. 91.
(17)高慧、杨艳、饶利波等:“全球可再生能源发展态势分析”,《国际石油经济》,2016年第4期,第3页。
(18)BP Stats Review 2018 All Data”, BP, June 13, 2018, https://www.bp.com/content/dam/bp/business-sites/en/global/corporate/xlsx/energy-economics/statistical-review/bp-stats-review-2018-all-data.xlsx.
(19)UNEP, Global Trends in Renewable Energy Investment 2017, Frankfurt School – UNEP Collaborating Centre, 2017, pp. 33-34.
(20)UNEP, Global Trends in Renewable Energy Investment 2018, Frankfurt School – UNEP Collaborating Centre, 2018, p. 21.
(21)高慧、杨艳、饶利波等:“全球可再生能源发展态势分析”,《国际石油经济》,2016年第4期,第2页。
(22)BP Energy Outlook 2035, BP, 2017, pp. 40-43.
(23)彭峰:“欧盟能源绿色化政策的新发展及启示”,《环境保护》,2016年第9期,第31页。
(24)朱彤、王蕾著:《国家能源转型:德、美实践与中国选择》,浙江大学出版社,2015年版,第187页。
(25)何露杨:“巴西气候变化政策及其谈判立场的解读与评价”,《拉丁美洲研究》,2016年第2期,第85-86页。
(26)Vaclav Smil, Energy Transitions: History, Requirements, Prospects, Santa Barbara: Praeger, 2010, p. 63.
(27)Bruce Podobnik, Global Energy Shifts: Fostering Sustainability in a Turbulent Age, Philadelphia: Temple University Press, 2006, p. 4.
(28)朱彤、王蕾著:《国家能源转型:德、美实践与中国选择》,浙江大学出版社,2015年版,第76页。
(29)第一次能源革命指的是煤炭对柴薪燃料的替代。
(30)UNEP, Global Trends in Renewable Energy Investment 2017, Frankfurt School-UNEP Collaborating Centre, 2017, p. 11.
(31)Elena Verdolini, Francesco Vona, David Popp, “Bridging the Gap: Do Fast Reacting Fossil Technologies Facilitate Renewable Energy Diffusion?” National Bureau of Economic Research, July 2016, https://www.nber.org/papers/w22454.pdf.
(32)于宏源:“特朗普政府气候政策的调整及影响”,《太平洋学报》,2018年第1期,第25页。
(33)金乐琴:“能源结构转型的目标与路径:美国、德国的比较及启示”,《经济问题探索》,2016年第2期,第166-167页。
(34)张立锋、冯红霞:“德国《可再生能源法》的演进及对中国的启示”,《河北法学》,2017年第10期,第119页。
(35)胡光宇著:《能源体制革命:中国能源政策发展概论》,清华大学出版社,2016年版,第53页。
(36)IRENA, Renewable Capacity Statistics 2018, Masdar: International Renewable Energy Agency, 2018, p.2.
(37)张晗:“非常规油气的‘常规’之路”,《中国石油报》,2017年7月17日,第1版。
(38)朱彤、王蕾著:《国家能源转型:德、美实践与中国选择》,浙江大学出版社,2015年版,第255-256页。
(39)郇庆治:“‘碳政治’的生态帝国主义逻辑批判及其超越”,《中国社会科学》,2016年第3期,第24-41页。