西太平洋暖池海温和山西盛夏降水关系研究
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摘要
利用1961—2016年山西盛夏(7—8月)平均降水和同期NOAA重构海温资料,分析了山西盛夏降水分别与赤道中东太平洋海温和西太平洋暖池海温相关性的变化。结果表明:山西盛夏降水和赤道中东太平洋海温之间呈现稳定的显著负相关;和西太平洋暖池海温呈现正相关,并在20世纪70年代末到80年代初之后相关性加强,通过了0. 05显著性检验。进一步分析表明,这种西太平洋暖池海温对20世纪80年代以来山西盛夏降水指示意义加强的事实,主要体现在赤道中东太平洋海温偏冷的背景下。西太平洋暖池海温异常通过影响与山西盛夏降水密切相关的大气环流、季风槽位置和东亚夏季风,导致山西盛夏降水异常。盛夏赤道中东太平洋海温偏冷时,西太平洋暖池海温偏暖(冷),通过遥相关引起中高纬度大气欧亚—太平洋型遥相关(EUP)和负太平洋—日本(PJ)波列,通过影响季风槽位置偏西偏北(偏东偏南),引起西太平洋副热带高压偏北(南)和季风指数偏小(大),导致山西盛夏降水偏多(少)。
Correlations betw een precipitation in Shanxi province and the sea surface temperature in the Central and Eastern Equatorial Pacific and the Western Pacific warm pool during mid-summer season(July and August)from1961 to 2016 were analyzes using precipitation observational data and National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration(NOAA)extended reconstructed sea surface temperature(SST)data.The results showed that precipitation in Shanxi province has a significant negative correlation with the SST in the Central and Eastern Equatorial Pacific and a positive correlation with the SST in Western Pacific warm pool;such a positive correlation enhances since the late 1970 s and the early 1980 s with a significance level exceeding 0.05 and is associated with the negative SST anomaly in the Central and Eastern Equatorial Pacific.The SST anomaly in Western Pacific warm pool can influence the atmospheric circulation,positions of monsoon trough and the East Asian monsoon,resulting in the anomaly precipitation in Shanxi province.When the SST anomaly in the Central and Eastern Equatorial Pacific is negative,the positive(negative)SST anomaly in Western Pacific warm pool can cause the Europe-Asian-Pacific(EAP)teleconnection pattern and negative Pacific-Japan(PJ)waves.Subsequently,this makes the monsoon trough move westward and northward(eastward and southward),the Western Pacific Subtropical High move northward(southward),and the monsoon index become smaller(larger),leading to more(less)precipitation in Shanxi province during the mid-summer season.
Correlations betw een precipitation in Shanxi province and the sea surface temperature in the Central and Eastern Equatorial Pacific and the Western Pacific warm pool during mid-summer season(July and August)from1961 to 2016 were analyzes using precipitation observational data and National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration(NOAA)extended reconstructed sea surface temperature(SST)data.The results showed that precipitation in Shanxi province has a significant negative correlation with the SST in the Central and Eastern Equatorial Pacific and a positive correlation with the SST in Western Pacific warm pool;such a positive correlation enhances since the late 1970 s and the early 1980 s with a significance level exceeding 0.05 and is associated with the negative SST anomaly in the Central and Eastern Equatorial Pacific.The SST anomaly in Western Pacific warm pool can influence the atmospheric circulation,positions of monsoon trough and the East Asian monsoon,resulting in the anomaly precipitation in Shanxi province.When the SST anomaly in the Central and Eastern Equatorial Pacific is negative,the positive(negative)SST anomaly in Western Pacific warm pool can cause the Europe-Asian-Pacific(EAP)teleconnection pattern and negative Pacific-Japan(PJ)waves.Subsequently,this makes the monsoon trough move westward and northward(eastward and southward),the Western Pacific Subtropical High move northward(southward),and the monsoon index become smaller(larger),leading to more(less)precipitation in Shanxi province during the mid-summer season.
引文
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[3]Wu B Y,Zhang R H,Wang B.On the association betw een spring Arctic sea ice concentration and Chinese summer rainfall:a further study[J].Advances in Atmospheric Sciences,2009,26(4):666-678.
[4]李慧,周顺武,王亚非.西太平洋副热带高压异常与中国长江中下游夏季降水关系研究综述[J].气象与环境学报,2013,29(1):93-102.
[5]李永生,王永光,王莹.黑龙江省夏季降水主模态异常型前兆信号分析[J].气象与环境学报,2017,33(3):29-35.
[6]李崇银.华北地区汛期降水的一个分析研究[J].气象学报,1992,50(1):41-49.
[7]陈文.El Ni1o和La Ni1a事件对东亚冬、夏季风循环的影响[J].大气科学,2002,26(5):595-610.
[8]陈文,康丽华,王玎.我国夏季降水与全球海温的耦合关系分析[J].气候与环境研究,2006,11(3):259-269.
[9]李智才,宋燕,朱临洪,等.山西省夏季年际气候异常研究1.山西省一致多雨或少雨型[J].气象,2008,34(1):86-93.
[10]肖子牛,晏红明,李崇银.印度洋地区异常海温的偶极振荡与中国降水及温度的关系[J].热带气象学报,2002,18(4):335-344.
[11]贾小龙,李崇银.南印度洋海温偶极子型振荡及其气候影响[J].地球物理学报,2005,48(6):1238-1249.
[12]陈丽娟,袁媛,杨明珠,等.海温异常对东亚夏季风影响机理的研究进展[J].应用气象学报,2013,24(5):521-532.
[13]高辉,王永光.ENSO对中国夏季降水可预测性变化的研究[J].气象学报,2007,65(1):131-137.
[14]Smith T M,Reynolds R W,Peterson T C,et al.Improvements to NOAA's historical merged land-ocean surface temperature analysis(1880-2006)[J].Journal of Climate,2008,21(10):2283-2296.
[15]Kalnay E,Kanamitsu M,Kistler R,et al.The NCEP/NCAR 40-year reanalysis project[J].Bulletin of the A-merican Meteorological Society,1996,77(3):437-472.
[16]张庆云,陶诗言,陈烈庭.东亚夏季风指数的年际变化与东亚大气环流[J].气象学报,2003,61(5):559-569.
[17]张善强.黄河流域夏季旱涝变化及气候物理因素的影响[J].气象与环境学报,2011,27(3):40-44.
[18]Wallace J M,Gutzler D S.Teleconnections in the geopotential height field during the northern hemisphere w inter[J].M onthly Weather Review,1981,109(4):784-812.
[19]黄荣辉,皇甫静亮,刘永,等.西太平洋暖池对西北太平洋季风槽和台风活动影响过程及其机理的最近研究进展[J].大气科学,2016,40(5):877-896.
[20]Nitta T.Convective activities in the tropical western Pacific and their impact on the northern hemisphere summer circulation[J].Journal of the M eteorological Society of Japan,1987,65(3):373-390.
[21]黄荣辉,孙凤英.热带西太平洋暖池的热状态及其上空的对流活动对东亚夏季气候异常的影响[J].大气科学,1994,18(2):141-151.