基于GIS/AHP集成的浙江省洪涝灾害风险评估
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摘要
将GIS技术引入洪涝灾害风险评估,可以弥补传统方法评估结果空间化显示不足的缺点。本文针对浙江省洪涝灾害的发生特点,从危险性和易损性两方面选择了浙江省洪涝灾害的影响因素,包括降雨量、地形、河网密度、人口密度和耕地百分比等因子。运用GIS空间分析技术对各因子进行空间化,结合层次分析法(AHP)确定各影响因素的权重,进行浙江省洪涝灾害风险评估和制图,并基于SuperMap i Objects平台设计与开发了浙江省洪涝灾害风险评估系统。研究结果表明:浙江省发生洪涝灾害的风险普遍偏高,高风险区域位于浙北和浙东南的沿海地带,较高风险区域位于浙东、浙南和浙北地区及金衢盆地中间地区,中等风险区位于浙南的西面、浙北及浙西地区。本文分析结果可为浙江省洪涝灾害预防和管理提供决策依据。
The assessment of the flood disaster risk using the GIS technology can make up for the lack of spatial display by traditional assessment methods.According to the occurrence characteristics of flood disasters in Zhejiang province,considering the aspects of danger and vulnerability,several factors influencing flood disasters,including rainfall,topography,river network density,population density and percentage of cultivated land,et al were selected.The factors were spatialized using the GIS spatial analysis technology,and the weight of each factor was determined using the analytic hierarchy process(AHP),after which the flood risk assessment map was obtained and a flood disaster risk assessment system of Zhejiang was built based on the Supermap i Objects platform.The results show that the flooding risk in Zhejiang province is generally high,with the highest risk areas located in the coastal areas in the north and the southeast,the higher-risk areas located in the east and the north,the middle of the south Zhejiang and the Jinqu basin,the medium-risk areas located in the west,north,and western Zhejiang province.The analysis results can provide reference for the prevention and management of flood disasters in Zhejiang province.
The assessment of the flood disaster risk using the GIS technology can make up for the lack of spatial display by traditional assessment methods.According to the occurrence characteristics of flood disasters in Zhejiang province,considering the aspects of danger and vulnerability,several factors influencing flood disasters,including rainfall,topography,river network density,population density and percentage of cultivated land,et al were selected.The factors were spatialized using the GIS spatial analysis technology,and the weight of each factor was determined using the analytic hierarchy process(AHP),after which the flood risk assessment map was obtained and a flood disaster risk assessment system of Zhejiang was built based on the Supermap i Objects platform.The results show that the flooding risk in Zhejiang province is generally high,with the highest risk areas located in the coastal areas in the north and the southeast,the higher-risk areas located in the east and the north,the middle of the south Zhejiang and the Jinqu basin,the medium-risk areas located in the west,north,and western Zhejiang province.The analysis results can provide reference for the prevention and management of flood disasters in Zhejiang province.
引文
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[2]徐影,张冰,周波涛,等.基于CMIP5模式的中国地区未来洪涝灾害风险变化预估[J].气候变化研究进展,2014,10(4):268-275.
[3]李兰,周月华,叶丽梅,等.基于GIS淹没模型的流域暴雨洪涝风险区划方法[J].气象,2013,39(1):112-117.
[4]黄崇福,郭君,艾福利,等.洪涝灾害风险分析的基本范式及其应用[J].自然灾害学报,2013,22(4):11-23.
[5]陈泽强,陈能成,杜文英,等.一种洪涝灾害时间信息建模方法[J].地球信息科学学报,2015,17(6):664-652.
[6]叶金玉,林广发,张明锋.自然灾害风险评估研究进展[J].防灾科技学院学报,2010,12(3):20-25.
[7]蒋卫国,李京,陈云浩,等.区域洪水灾害风险评估体系(I)---原理与方法[J].自然灾害学报,2008,17(6):105-109.
[8]尹贤平.基于层次分析法的中小企业财务风险评价探讨[D].南昌:江西财经大学,2012.
[9]郭金玉,张忠彬,孙庆云.层次分析法的研究与应用[J].中国安全科学学报,2008(5):148-153.
[10]MASKREY A.Disaster mitigation a community based approach[M].Oxford:Oxfam,1989.
[11]张行南,罗健,陈雷,等.中国洪水灾害危险程度区划[J].水利学报,2000,3(3):1-7.
[12]王金艳,黄永林,谭慧明,等.利用Arc GIS生成水系密度的方法[J].地理空间信息,2010,8(6):101-102.
[13]曹罗丹.基于遥感与GIS的浙江省洪涝灾害风险评估研究[D].宁波:宁波大学,2014.
[14]袁晓玉,薛根元,顾骏强,等.浙江省洪涝灾害的统计分析[J].灾害学,2002(1):57-62.
[15]朱国满,潘赛军,陈雰,等.GIS在基于情景模拟的洪涝灾害风险评估中的应用[J].建设科技,2016(8):85-87.