1972—2013年河北省大气环境容量的气候变化特征分析
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摘要
基于河北省79个气象站地面风速、云量和降水资料,采用A值法计算了相应行政区域的大气环境容量,分析了其气候分布特征和长期变化趋势;用MK和MT法对全省大气环境总容量做了突变检验,通过EOF分解对大气容量时空分布特征进行了分析。结果表明,大气容量的年、季气候平均值的地理分布特征基本一致,均表现为张家口和承德西北部较高,中南部平原普遍低于周围山区和东部沿海区域,一年中从春到冬大气容量呈现由高到低的变化特征;1972-2013年全省大部分地区年、季大气容量呈显著下降趋势;各季大气总容量存在明显突变点,春、夏、秋、冬季分别为1983,1998,1998和1988年;EOF分析得出,年、季前两个模态反映出1972-2013年大气容量时空分布的主要格局,其中第1模态的方差贡献率占43%以上,反映出全省各区域的同相变化,对应的时间系数则表明全省大气容量存在年代际减弱的变化趋势。
Based on wind,cloud and precipitation data of 79 meteorological stations over the Hebei province,the atmospheric environmental capacity( AEC) was calculated by applying A value method,climate change characteristics and trends of AEC were analyzed. The time points of abrupt change for AEC was tested by Mann-Kendall and Moving-T technique. Based on EOF analysis,the temporal and spatial variation features of AEC were studied. Results showthat the climatic value of seasonal spatial distribution characteristics of AEC is relatively consistent,northwest of Zhangjiakou and Chengde area is significantly greater than the other parts,and Hebei Piedmont is lower than the surrounding,climatic value of AEC changed from high to lowthroughout the year.From 1972 to 2013,the annual and seasonal AEC have been observably decreasing in most part of Hebei and the abrupt change point is spring in 1983,summer and autumn both in 1998,winter in 1988. The first 2 eigenvector of EOF reflect the most characteristics of annual and seasonal spatio-temporal distribution of AEC from 1972 to 2013,the first eigenvector of contribution rate is more than 43%,reflects holistic characteristics in the whole province,the corresponding time coefficient indicates that there is an interdecadal weakening trend of AEC.
Based on wind,cloud and precipitation data of 79 meteorological stations over the Hebei province,the atmospheric environmental capacity( AEC) was calculated by applying A value method,climate change characteristics and trends of AEC were analyzed. The time points of abrupt change for AEC was tested by Mann-Kendall and Moving-T technique. Based on EOF analysis,the temporal and spatial variation features of AEC were studied. Results showthat the climatic value of seasonal spatial distribution characteristics of AEC is relatively consistent,northwest of Zhangjiakou and Chengde area is significantly greater than the other parts,and Hebei Piedmont is lower than the surrounding,climatic value of AEC changed from high to lowthroughout the year.From 1972 to 2013,the annual and seasonal AEC have been observably decreasing in most part of Hebei and the abrupt change point is spring in 1983,summer and autumn both in 1998,winter in 1988. The first 2 eigenvector of EOF reflect the most characteristics of annual and seasonal spatio-temporal distribution of AEC from 1972 to 2013,the first eigenvector of contribution rate is more than 43%,reflects holistic characteristics in the whole province,the corresponding time coefficient indicates that there is an interdecadal weakening trend of AEC.
引文
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段丽瑶,杨艳娟,李明财,2013.近50年环渤海地区夏季降水时空变化特征[J].高原气象,32(1):243-249.Duan L Y,Yang YJ,Li M C,2013.Spatial-Temporal changes of summer precipitation in the Bohai rim in recent 50 years[J].Plateau M eteor,32(1):243-249.DOI:10.7522/j.issn.1000-0534.2013.00024.
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李明财,郭军,史珺,等,2014.气候变化对天津市商场和居住建筑极端能耗的影响[J].高原气象,33(2):574-583.Li M C,Guo J,Shi J,et al,2014.Effect of climate change on extreme energy consumption for residential and commercial buildings in Tianjin[J].Plateau Meteor,33(2):574-583.DOI:10.7522/j.issn.1000-0534.2012.00197.
马中华,张勃,张建香,等,2012.近30年甘肃省气温时空变异分析[J].高原气象,31(3):760-767.Ma Z H,Zhang B,Zhang JX,et al,2012.Analyses on spatial-temporal differentiations of air temperature in Gansu province during 1979-2008[J].Plateau M eteor,31(3):760-767.
欧阳晓光,2008.大气环境容量A-P值法中A值的修正算法[J].环境科学研究,21(1):37-40.Ou Yang X G,2008.Research on the a value amending algorithm for A-P value method in EPC calculation[J].Res Environ Sci,21(1):37-40.
钱跃东,王勤耕,2011.针对大尺度区域的大气环境容量综合估算方法[J].中国环境科学,31(3):504-509.Qian Y D,Wang QG,2011.An integrated method of atmospheric environment capacity estimation for large-scale region[J].China Environ Sci,31(3):504-509.
魏凤英,2007.现代气候统计诊断与预测技术[M].北京:气象出版社.Wei F Y,2007.Technology of modern climate statistic diagnosis and prediction[M].Beijing:China M eteorological Press.
文德振,2008.郑州市大气环境容量核定技术研究[J].河南科学,26(6):735-738.Wen D Z,2008.Study on atmospheric environment capacity checking technology in Zhengzhou[J].Henan Sci,26(6):735-738.
吴洪宝,吴蕾,2005.气候变率诊断和预测方法[M].北京:气象出版社.Wu H B,Wu L,2005.Methods for diagnosing and forecasting climate variability[M].Beijing:China M eteorological Press.
徐大海,王郁,2013.确定大气环境承载力的烟云足迹法[J].环境科学学报,33(6):1734-1740.Xu D H,Wang Y,2013.Plume footprints analysis for determining the bearing capacity of atmospheric environment[J].Environ Sci Technol,33(6):1734-1740.
徐大海,朱蓉,潘在桃,1990.城市扩散模式和二氧化硫排放总量控制方法的研究[J].中国环境科学,10(4):309-313.Xu D H,Zhu R,Pan Z T,1990.The studies on standard of emission of SO2and dispersion model in cities[J].China Environ Sci,10(4):309-313.
徐大海,朱蓉,1989.我国大陆通风量和雨洗能力分布的研究[J].中国环境科学,9(5):367-374.Xu D H,Zhu R,1989.A study on the distribution of ventilation and rainout capacity in mainland China[J].China Environ Sci,9(5):367-374.
徐大海,朱蓉,1993.国家标准GB/T 3840-91中城市大气污染物总量控制A-P值法的应用[J].城市环境与城市生态,6(2):36-41.Xu D H,Zhu R,1993.Application of A-P value method for control of total quantity emission of urban atmospheric pollution in GB/T 3840-91[J].Urban Environ ecol,6(2):36-41.
赵幽竹,2007.临汾市大气环境容量预测研究[J].山西化工,27(3):68-71.Zhao Y Z,2007.Prediction studies on atmospheric environment capacity in Linfen[J].Shanxi Chem Indus,27(3):68-71.
郑然,李栋梁,蒋元春,等,2015.全球变暖背景下青藏高原气温变化的新特征[J].高原气象,34(4):1531-1539.Zheng R,Li DL,Jiang Y C,et al,2015.New characteristics of temperature change over Qinghai-Xizang plateau on the background global w arming[J].Plateau M eteor,34(4):1531-1539.DOI:10.7522/j.issn.1000-0534.2014.00123.
North G R,Bell T L,Cahalan R F,1982.Sampling errors in the estimation of empirical orthogonal functions[J].M on Wea Rev,110:699-706.
GB/T3840-91,1991.制定地方大气污染物排放标准的计术方法[S].GB/T3840-91.1991.Technical methods for making local emission standards of air pollutants[S].
鲍仙华,沈虹,肖青,等,2004.区域环评中大气环境容量计算及总量控制探讨[J].能源研究与信息,20(2):63-67.Bao X H,Shen H,Xiao Q,et al,2004.Discussion on atmospheric capacity calculations and total load control in regional environmental impact assessments[J].Ene Res Informa,20(2):63-67.
柴发合,陈义真,文毅,等,2006.区域大气污染物总量控制技术与示范研究[J].环境科学研究,19(4):163-171.Chai F H,Chen Y Z,Wen Y,et al,2006.Study for regional air pollutants total amount control technologies and demonstration[J].Res Environ Sci,19(4):163-171.
丁一汇,张莉,2008.青藏高原与中国其他地区气候突变时间的比较[J].大气科学,32(4):794-805.Ding Y H,Zhang L,2008.Intercomparison of the time for climate abrupt change betw een the Tibetan Plateau and other regions in China[J].Chinese J Atmos Sci,32(4):794-805.
段丽瑶,杨艳娟,李明财,2013.近50年环渤海地区夏季降水时空变化特征[J].高原气象,32(1):243-249.Duan L Y,Yang YJ,Li M C,2013.Spatial-Temporal changes of summer precipitation in the Bohai rim in recent 50 years[J].Plateau M eteor,32(1):243-249.DOI:10.7522/j.issn.1000-0534.2013.00024.
符淙斌,王强,1992.气候突变的定义和检测方法[J].大气科学,16(4):482-493.Fu C B,Wang Q,1992.The definition and detection of the abrupt climate change[J].Chinese J Atmos Sci,16(4):482-493.
国家环境保护局,中国环境科学研究院,1991.城市大气污染总量控制方法手册[M].北京:中国环境科学出版社.Natl Environ Protect Agcy,Chin Res Acaemy of Environ Sci,1991.Handbook on the total quantity control of urban air pollution[M].Beijing:China Environ Sci Press.
郝吉明,万本太,侯立安,等,2015.新时期国家环境保护战略研究[J].中国工程科学,17(5):30-38.Hao J M,Wan B T,Hou LA,et al,2015.Research on environment protection strategy in new era[J].China Engineering Sci,17(5):30-38.
黄嘉佑,1991.我国夏季气温、降水场的时空特征分析[J].大气科学,15(3):124-132.Huang J Y,1991.Analysis of temporal and spatial characteristics for temperature and precipitation in summer of China[J].Chinese J Atmos Sci,15(3):124-132.
李邦东,周旭,赵中军,等,2013.近50年中国东北地区不同类型和等级降水事件变化特征[J].高原气象,32(5):1414-1424.Li B D,Zhou X,Zhao Z J,et al,2013.Change features of different types and grades of precipitation event in northeast China in recent 50 years[J].Plateau M eteor,32(5):1414-1424.DOI:10.7522/j.issn.1000-0534.2012.00114.
李矜霄,何萍,钟瑞,等,2014.近50年云贵高原楚雄市日照时数变化特征及其成因分析[J].高原气象,33(2):407-412.Li JX,He P,Zhong R,et al,2014.Analysis of variation characteristics and causes of sunshine duration at Chuxiong in Yungui plateau in last 50 years[J].Plateau M eteor,33(2):407-412.DOI:10.7522/j.issn.1000-0534.2013.00050.
李明财,郭军,史珺,等,2014.气候变化对天津市商场和居住建筑极端能耗的影响[J].高原气象,33(2):574-583.Li M C,Guo J,Shi J,et al,2014.Effect of climate change on extreme energy consumption for residential and commercial buildings in Tianjin[J].Plateau Meteor,33(2):574-583.DOI:10.7522/j.issn.1000-0534.2012.00197.
马中华,张勃,张建香,等,2012.近30年甘肃省气温时空变异分析[J].高原气象,31(3):760-767.Ma Z H,Zhang B,Zhang JX,et al,2012.Analyses on spatial-temporal differentiations of air temperature in Gansu province during 1979-2008[J].Plateau M eteor,31(3):760-767.
欧阳晓光,2008.大气环境容量A-P值法中A值的修正算法[J].环境科学研究,21(1):37-40.Ou Yang X G,2008.Research on the a value amending algorithm for A-P value method in EPC calculation[J].Res Environ Sci,21(1):37-40.
钱跃东,王勤耕,2011.针对大尺度区域的大气环境容量综合估算方法[J].中国环境科学,31(3):504-509.Qian Y D,Wang QG,2011.An integrated method of atmospheric environment capacity estimation for large-scale region[J].China Environ Sci,31(3):504-509.
魏凤英,2007.现代气候统计诊断与预测技术[M].北京:气象出版社.Wei F Y,2007.Technology of modern climate statistic diagnosis and prediction[M].Beijing:China M eteorological Press.
文德振,2008.郑州市大气环境容量核定技术研究[J].河南科学,26(6):735-738.Wen D Z,2008.Study on atmospheric environment capacity checking technology in Zhengzhou[J].Henan Sci,26(6):735-738.
吴洪宝,吴蕾,2005.气候变率诊断和预测方法[M].北京:气象出版社.Wu H B,Wu L,2005.Methods for diagnosing and forecasting climate variability[M].Beijing:China M eteorological Press.
徐大海,王郁,2013.确定大气环境承载力的烟云足迹法[J].环境科学学报,33(6):1734-1740.Xu D H,Wang Y,2013.Plume footprints analysis for determining the bearing capacity of atmospheric environment[J].Environ Sci Technol,33(6):1734-1740.
徐大海,朱蓉,潘在桃,1990.城市扩散模式和二氧化硫排放总量控制方法的研究[J].中国环境科学,10(4):309-313.Xu D H,Zhu R,Pan Z T,1990.The studies on standard of emission of SO2and dispersion model in cities[J].China Environ Sci,10(4):309-313.
徐大海,朱蓉,1989.我国大陆通风量和雨洗能力分布的研究[J].中国环境科学,9(5):367-374.Xu D H,Zhu R,1989.A study on the distribution of ventilation and rainout capacity in mainland China[J].China Environ Sci,9(5):367-374.
徐大海,朱蓉,1993.国家标准GB/T 3840-91中城市大气污染物总量控制A-P值法的应用[J].城市环境与城市生态,6(2):36-41.Xu D H,Zhu R,1993.Application of A-P value method for control of total quantity emission of urban atmospheric pollution in GB/T 3840-91[J].Urban Environ ecol,6(2):36-41.
赵幽竹,2007.临汾市大气环境容量预测研究[J].山西化工,27(3):68-71.Zhao Y Z,2007.Prediction studies on atmospheric environment capacity in Linfen[J].Shanxi Chem Indus,27(3):68-71.
郑然,李栋梁,蒋元春,等,2015.全球变暖背景下青藏高原气温变化的新特征[J].高原气象,34(4):1531-1539.Zheng R,Li DL,Jiang Y C,et al,2015.New characteristics of temperature change over Qinghai-Xizang plateau on the background global w arming[J].Plateau M eteor,34(4):1531-1539.DOI:10.7522/j.issn.1000-0534.2014.00123.