NAQPMS和CMAQ模式在臭氧预报应用中的效果检验
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摘要
基于2017年泰州市环境空气质量自动监测数据,定量评估NAQPMS模式、CMAQ模式对O_3-8h的预报效果。结果表明,就全年数据分析,模式预报值高于监测值,2种模式对O_3-8h预报的相关系数在0.67～0.79,标准化平均偏差NMB在1.1%～2.2%,标准化平均误差NME在30.5%～20.7%,均在理想范围内。按不同季节分析,NAQPMS模式对O_3-8h预报效果呈现春季秋季较好、冬季较差的特征;CMAQ模式对O_3-8h预报效果春季夏季较好,秋季冬季稍差。总体而言,CMAQ模式对O_3-8h预报效果较好。
Based on the automatic monitoring data of Taizhou environmental air quality in 2017, the predictive effect of NAQPMS model and CMAQ model for O_3-8 h was quantitatively evaluated. The results show that model predicted values are higher than the monitoring data based on annual data analysis, correlation coefficient for the two models for O_3-8 h prediction is within the range of 0.67～0.79, the range of NMB is 1.1%～2.2%, the range of NME is 30.5%～20.7%. Both are within the ideal range. According to the analysis of different seasons, the prediction effect of NAQPMS model for O_3-8 h is better in spring and autumn, while the effect is poor in winter. CMAQ model has a better predictive effect for O_3-8 h in spring and summer, while the predictive effect is relatively poor in autumn and winter. In general, the predictive effect of CMAQ model for O_3-8 h is better.
Based on the automatic monitoring data of Taizhou environmental air quality in 2017, the predictive effect of NAQPMS model and CMAQ model for O_3-8 h was quantitatively evaluated. The results show that model predicted values are higher than the monitoring data based on annual data analysis, correlation coefficient for the two models for O_3-8 h prediction is within the range of 0.67～0.79, the range of NMB is 1.1%～2.2%, the range of NME is 30.5%～20.7%. Both are within the ideal range. According to the analysis of different seasons, the prediction effect of NAQPMS model for O_3-8 h is better in spring and autumn, while the effect is poor in winter. CMAQ model has a better predictive effect for O_3-8 h in spring and summer, while the predictive effect is relatively poor in autumn and winter. In general, the predictive effect of CMAQ model for O_3-8 h is better.
引文
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[3] 佟彦超.中国重点城市空气污染预报及其进展[J].中国环境监测,2006,(2):69-71.
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[5] 王茜,伏晴艳,王自发,等.集合数值预报系统在上海市空气质量预测预报中的应用研究[J].环境监控与预警,2010,2(4):1-6,11.
[6] 张金谱,梁桂雄,冯彪,等.广州市污染季节空气质量预报效果评估及误差分析[J].环境监控与预警,2018,10(2):40-44.
[7] 马琳,魏巍,张稳定,等.2016年秋季新乡市空气质量模式预报效果评估[J].中国环境监测,2017,33(5):89-94.
[8] 杨关盈,邓学良,吴必文,等.基于CUACE模式的合肥地区空气质量预报效果检验[J].气象与环境学报,2017,33(1):51-57.
[9] 赵熠琳,王晓彦,汪巍,等.西北部主要城市环境空气质量特征与预报影响因素分析[J].中国环境监测,2017,33(5):82-88.
[10] 陆维青,江峰琴,刘丽霞,等.江苏省空气质量预报与实测结果比对研究[J].环境监控与预警,2017,9(1):10-14.
[11] 张灿,蒋昌潭,罗财红,等.气象因子对臭氧的影响及其在空气质量预报中的应用[J].中国环境监测,2017,33(4):221-228.
[12] 周广强,耿福海,许建明,等.上海地区臭氧数值预报[J].中国环境科学,2015,35(6):1601-1609.
[13] 中国环境监测总站. 环境空气质量预报预警方法技术指南(第一版)[M].北京:中国环境出版社,2014.