新常态下潜在产出测算的回顾、反思与展望
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摘要
产出缺口是判断经济形势,制定宏观政策的重要依据。文章系统梳理了国内外研究动态,并从供给和需求结合的视角对潜在产出赋予"可持续性"的内涵。新常态下,应将"货币中性"纳入对中国潜在产出测算的考量,引入信贷缺口、房地产价格缺口等指标,重视微观主体行为决策特征演变对经济内在驱动机制的影响,进而建立基于劳动力市场、产品市场和金融市场的一般均衡模型,提高潜在产出估计的准确性和稳健性。
Output gap is an important basis used to judge economic situation and formulate macro policy. This paper systematically reviews the research trends at home and abroad, and from the perspective of the combination of supply and demand to endow the potential output with connotation of"sustainability". Under the new economic normal,"monetary neutrality"should be taken into account in the estimation of China's potential output. Credit gap, real estate price gap and other indicators should also be brought in. Meanwhile, great importance should be attached to the influence of the evolution of decision-making characteristics of micro-subject behavior on the internal driving mechanism of economy. And then the paper constructs a general equilibrium model based on labor market, product market and financial market to enhance the accuracy and robustness of potential output estimation.
Output gap is an important basis used to judge economic situation and formulate macro policy. This paper systematically reviews the research trends at home and abroad, and from the perspective of the combination of supply and demand to endow the potential output with connotation of"sustainability". Under the new economic normal,"monetary neutrality"should be taken into account in the estimation of China's potential output. Credit gap, real estate price gap and other indicators should also be brought in. Meanwhile, great importance should be attached to the influence of the evolution of decision-making characteristics of micro-subject behavior on the internal driving mechanism of economy. And then the paper constructs a general equilibrium model based on labor market, product market and financial market to enhance the accuracy and robustness of potential output estimation.
引文
[1]向松祚.中国经济能否实现第二次历史性跨越[N].时代周报,2016-9-20.
[2]林毅夫.中国经济下滑更多的是外部影响[J].上海国资,2016,(4).
[3]余永定.建议政府再次大规模刺激[N].光明网,2016-1-28.
[4]Scacciavillani F,Swagel P.Measures of Potential Output:an Application to Israel[J].Applied Economics,2002,34(8).
[5]刘元春,杨丹丹.市场失灵、金融危机与现有潜在产出测算的局限[J].经济学动态,2016,(8).
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[7]Beveridge S,Nelson C R.A New Approach to Decomposition of Economic Time Series Into Permanent and Transitory Components With Particular Attention to Measurement of the‘Business Cycle’[J].Journal of Monetary Economics,1981,7(2).
[8]王少平,胡进.中国GDP的趋势周期分解与随机冲击的持久效应[J].经济研究,2009,(4).
[9]Harvey A C.Trends and Cycles in Macroeconomic Time Series[J]Journal of Business&Economic Statistics,1985,3(3).
[10]Clark P K.The Cyclical Component of U.S.Economic Activity[J]Quarterly Journal of Economics,1987,102(4).
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[13]Hodrick R J,Prescott,E C.Post-War U.S.Business Cycles:An Empirical Investigation[J].Journal of Money,Credit and Banking,199729(1).
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[16]Baxter M,King R G.Measuring Business Cycles:Approximate BandPass Filters for Economic Time Series[J].Review of Economics&Statistics,1999,81(4).
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[19]王霞,郑挺国.中国产出缺口的实时估计及其可靠性研究[J].经济研究,2010,(10).
[20]Blanchard O J,Danny Q.The Dynamic Effects of Aggregate Demand and Supply Disturbances[J].American Economic Review,1989,(79).
[21]赵昕东.基于菲利普斯曲线的中国产出缺口估计[J].世界经济,2008,31(1).
[22]郭红兵,陈平.基于SVAR模型的中国产出缺口估计及评价[J].数量经济技术经济研究,2010,(5).
[23]靖学青.中国省际物质资本存量估计:1952-2010[J].广东社会科学,2013,(2).
[24]龚敏,谢攀,李文溥.中国资本利用率、企业税负与结构调整--基于内生化资本利用率的视角[J].学术月刊,2016,(10).
[25]郭晗,任保平.结构变动、要素产出弹性与中国潜在经济增长率[J].数量经济技术经济研究,2014,(12).
[26]吴国培,王伟斌,张习宁.新常态下的中国经济增长潜力分析[J].金融研究,2015,(8).
[27]Van Nordeb S.Why Is So Hard to Measure the Current Output Gap?[R].Bank of Canada Working Paper,1995.
[28]高铁梅,范晓非.中国劳动力市场的结构转型与供求拐点[J].财经问题研究,2011,(1).
[29]张金清,赵伟.开放经济条件下我国潜在产出水平的估算与解析--基于新凯恩斯主义的理论框架[J].数量经济技术经济研究,2009,(1).
[30]Smets F,Wouters R.An Estimated Stochastic Dynamic General Equilibrium Model of the Euro Area[J].Social Science Electronic Publishing,2003,1(5).
[31]Kiley M T.Output Gaps[J].Journal of Macroeconomics,2013,(37).
[32]Hirose Y,Naganuma S.Structural Estimation of the Output Gap:ABayesian DSGE Approach for the U.S.Economy[R].Bank of Japan Working Paper,2007.
[33]Vetlov I,Hlédik T,Jonsson M,et al.Potential Output in DSGE Models[R].Bank of Lithuania Working Paper,2011.
[34]Andrés J,LópezSalido J D,Nelson E.Sticky-price Models and the Natural Rate Hypothesis[J].Working Papers,2005,52(5).
[35]殷德生.经济转型中的潜在增长率变化与新一轮“开放促改革”的突破口[J].华东师范大学(哲学社会科学版),2014,46(5).
[36]Borio C,Disyatat P,Juselius M.Rethinking Potential Output:Embedding Information About the Financial Cycle[J].Bis Working Papers,2013,69(3).
[2]林毅夫.中国经济下滑更多的是外部影响[J].上海国资,2016,(4).
[3]余永定.建议政府再次大规模刺激[N].光明网,2016-1-28.
[4]Scacciavillani F,Swagel P.Measures of Potential Output:an Application to Israel[J].Applied Economics,2002,34(8).
[5]刘元春,杨丹丹.市场失灵、金融危机与现有潜在产出测算的局限[J].经济学动态,2016,(8).
[6]Galbraith J K.The Collapse of Monetarism and the Irrelevance of the New Monetary Consensus[J].Economics Policy Note Archive,2008,(1).
[7]Beveridge S,Nelson C R.A New Approach to Decomposition of Economic Time Series Into Permanent and Transitory Components With Particular Attention to Measurement of the‘Business Cycle’[J].Journal of Monetary Economics,1981,7(2).
[8]王少平,胡进.中国GDP的趋势周期分解与随机冲击的持久效应[J].经济研究,2009,(4).
[9]Harvey A C.Trends and Cycles in Macroeconomic Time Series[J]Journal of Business&Economic Statistics,1985,3(3).
[10]Clark P K.The Cyclical Component of U.S.Economic Activity[J]Quarterly Journal of Economics,1987,102(4).
[11]刘桑,张鸿武,王珂英.中国实际产出的周期性波动:冲击类型与动态特征[J].财政研究,2014,(9).
[12]杨天宇,黄淑芬.基于小波降噪方法和季度数据的中国产出缺口估计[J].经济研究,2010,(1).
[13]Hodrick R J,Prescott,E C.Post-War U.S.Business Cycles:An Empirical Investigation[J].Journal of Money,Credit and Banking,199729(1).
[14]郭庆旺,贾俊雪.中国潜在产出与产出缺口的估算[J].经济研究2004,(5).
[15]张连城,韩蓓.中国潜在经济增长率分析--HP滤波平滑参数的选择及应用[J].经济与管理研究,2009,(3).
[16]Baxter M,King R G.Measuring Business Cycles:Approximate BandPass Filters for Economic Time Series[J].Review of Economics&Statistics,1999,81(4).
[17]Christiano L J,Fitzgerald T J.The Band Pass Filter[J].International Economic Review,2010,44(2).
[18]Iacobucci A,Noullez A.A Frequency Selective Filter for Short-Length Time Series[J].Computational Economics,2005,(25).
[19]王霞,郑挺国.中国产出缺口的实时估计及其可靠性研究[J].经济研究,2010,(10).
[20]Blanchard O J,Danny Q.The Dynamic Effects of Aggregate Demand and Supply Disturbances[J].American Economic Review,1989,(79).
[21]赵昕东.基于菲利普斯曲线的中国产出缺口估计[J].世界经济,2008,31(1).
[22]郭红兵,陈平.基于SVAR模型的中国产出缺口估计及评价[J].数量经济技术经济研究,2010,(5).
[23]靖学青.中国省际物质资本存量估计:1952-2010[J].广东社会科学,2013,(2).
[24]龚敏,谢攀,李文溥.中国资本利用率、企业税负与结构调整--基于内生化资本利用率的视角[J].学术月刊,2016,(10).
[25]郭晗,任保平.结构变动、要素产出弹性与中国潜在经济增长率[J].数量经济技术经济研究,2014,(12).
[26]吴国培,王伟斌,张习宁.新常态下的中国经济增长潜力分析[J].金融研究,2015,(8).
[27]Van Nordeb S.Why Is So Hard to Measure the Current Output Gap?[R].Bank of Canada Working Paper,1995.
[28]高铁梅,范晓非.中国劳动力市场的结构转型与供求拐点[J].财经问题研究,2011,(1).
[29]张金清,赵伟.开放经济条件下我国潜在产出水平的估算与解析--基于新凯恩斯主义的理论框架[J].数量经济技术经济研究,2009,(1).
[30]Smets F,Wouters R.An Estimated Stochastic Dynamic General Equilibrium Model of the Euro Area[J].Social Science Electronic Publishing,2003,1(5).
[31]Kiley M T.Output Gaps[J].Journal of Macroeconomics,2013,(37).
[32]Hirose Y,Naganuma S.Structural Estimation of the Output Gap:ABayesian DSGE Approach for the U.S.Economy[R].Bank of Japan Working Paper,2007.
[33]Vetlov I,Hlédik T,Jonsson M,et al.Potential Output in DSGE Models[R].Bank of Lithuania Working Paper,2011.
[34]Andrés J,LópezSalido J D,Nelson E.Sticky-price Models and the Natural Rate Hypothesis[J].Working Papers,2005,52(5).
[35]殷德生.经济转型中的潜在增长率变化与新一轮“开放促改革”的突破口[J].华东师范大学(哲学社会科学版),2014,46(5).
[36]Borio C,Disyatat P,Juselius M.Rethinking Potential Output:Embedding Information About the Financial Cycle[J].Bis Working Papers,2013,69(3).