溃坝风险的社会影响评价指标初探
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摘要
传统溃坝风险的社会影响侧重于重要设施、文物古迹等可以量化的指标,未考虑对"人"的影响,围绕溃坝风险下与大坝公共安全相关的政府、水行政主管部门、水库管理单位、下游影响范围内的公众、媒体等组成的共同体,较为系统的挖掘了溃坝风险的社会影响形成机理,阐述了社会影响扩散的层次性,构建了溃坝风险下的直接遭遇者、责任者、处理者、监管者、关联遭遇者、传播者、同情者、关注者、规避者9种"人"的角色分配。初步探讨了溃坝风险的社会影响评价指标,提出了人员损失、公共性、新闻性和持续时间4个指标,并给出了等级划分标准。以某水库溃坝为案例开展了应用分析研究,表明所构建的社会影响评价指标,评价结果合理、定级准确,为类似社会影响评价提供了可靠途径。
The traditional study of dam-failure risk and social influence simply considered measurable impacts of important facilities and cultural relics etc,while its effect on "people"was not involved. The project revolves around the dam engineering community under the condition of dam-failure risk,which consists of dam related government,water administrative department,the reservoir management organization,the public within down-stream effects of dam-failure,media,etc. The social influence formation mechanism of dam-failure risk research is demonstrated clearly,the diffusion hierarchy of dam-failure risk social influence is elaborated. This paper analyzes the nine roles assignment under dam-failure risk,which contains the direct encounter,the responsible person,the handler,the regulator,the related encounter,the propagator,the sympathy,the concern and the circumvention. The evaluating indexes of dam-failure risk social influence is studied. That is,personnel loss,publicity,news and duration. And the grade division standard of the four indexes is given. The social influence evaluation method of dam-failure is adopted based on grade evaluation method. Taking a reservoir as an example,practical application shows,the evaluation results are of high reliability,objective and reasonable,classification accuracy. The social influence assessment of dam-failure risk based on grade evaluation provides a platform for the comparative analysis of the social influence of different dam-failure events.
The traditional study of dam-failure risk and social influence simply considered measurable impacts of important facilities and cultural relics etc,while its effect on "people"was not involved. The project revolves around the dam engineering community under the condition of dam-failure risk,which consists of dam related government,water administrative department,the reservoir management organization,the public within down-stream effects of dam-failure,media,etc. The social influence formation mechanism of dam-failure risk research is demonstrated clearly,the diffusion hierarchy of dam-failure risk social influence is elaborated. This paper analyzes the nine roles assignment under dam-failure risk,which contains the direct encounter,the responsible person,the handler,the regulator,the related encounter,the propagator,the sympathy,the concern and the circumvention. The evaluating indexes of dam-failure risk social influence is studied. That is,personnel loss,publicity,news and duration. And the grade division standard of the four indexes is given. The social influence evaluation method of dam-failure is adopted based on grade evaluation method. Taking a reservoir as an example,practical application shows,the evaluation results are of high reliability,objective and reasonable,classification accuracy. The social influence assessment of dam-failure risk based on grade evaluation provides a platform for the comparative analysis of the social influence of different dam-failure events.
引文
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[14]杜丙涛,袁永博.溃坝后关联区域损失模型研究[J].水利与建筑工程学报,2012,10(1):64-68.
[2]黄俊华.社会化媒体传播中的社会风险及其规制策略研究[J].新闻知识,2014,(5):21-22,17.
[3]张秀华.工程共同体的本性[J].自然辩证法通讯,2008,30(6):43-47.
[4]胡苏萍.溃坝的残余风险及风险评估[J].中国水利,2010,(8):21-23.
[5]哈贝马斯.公域的结构性变化.邓正来译[M].北京:中央编译出版社,2002:163-164.
[6]齐红霞,蔡礼彬.国外大型事件社会影响研究述评[J].旅游学刊,2014,(5):116-128.
[7]万旋傲,谢耘耕.网络舆情传播对公共政策的影响研究[J].编辑之友,2015:5-11.
[8]张李娟.地方政府网络舆情引导的对策研究[J].中国管理信息化,2015,(18):203-204.
[9]沈一兵.从社会风险到公共危机的转化机理[J].中国管理信息化,2015,(4):218-219.
[10]张锡平,魏玖长,梁樑.危机事件社会影响的评估和应对[J].社会科学,2011,(6):90-95.
[11]王仁钟,李雷,盛金保.水库大坝的社会与环境风险标准研究[J].安全与环境学报,2006,6(1):8-11.
[12]王明春.关于水库、大坝等水利工程的社会影响性探讨[J].吉林农业,2010,(11):214-215.
[13]李强,史玲玲,叶鹏飞,等.探索适合中国国情的社会影响评价指标体系[J].河北学刊,2010,30(1):106-112.
[14]杜丙涛,袁永博.溃坝后关联区域损失模型研究[J].水利与建筑工程学报,2012,10(1):64-68.