基于改进GEV分布的腐蚀油气管道剩余寿命预测
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摘要
为了预测在役油气管道腐蚀剩余寿命,基于广义极值(Generalized Extreme Value,GEV)自适应优选分布研究,建立了基于改进GEV分布的腐蚀油气管道剩余寿命预测模型。首先,利用马尔科夫链蒙特卡罗(Markov Chain Monte Carlo,MCMC)方法估计GEV分布函数的参数并由此确定极值分布类型,若图形检验合理,则采用该分布预测其最大腐蚀深度;其次,基于管道的可靠度及安全性建立腐蚀裕量预测模型;最后,根据管道最大腐蚀深度、腐蚀裕量及管道使用年限等数据,建立三者关系指数模型,以此预测管道剩余寿命。以中国某油气管道为研究对象,利用新建模型对管道剩余寿命进行预测,结果表明:模型的预测精度较高且不受限于数据的具体分布,作为管道剩余寿命的预测模型通用性较好。(图5,表2,参21)
In order to predict the residual life of corroded oil and gas pipelines in service, a model for predicting the residual life of pipeline based on the modified Generalized Extreme Value(GEV) distribution was established after the GEV adaptive optimal distribution was investigated in this paper. First, the parameters of GEV distribution function were estimated by means of Markov Chain Monte Carlo method(MCMC)and the type of extreme value distribution was determined accordingly. If the graph is inspected reasonably, this distribution will be used to predict the maximum corrosion depth. Then, the corrosion allowance prediction model was established based on the reliability and safety of pipeline.Finally, based the pipeline data, e.g. maximum corrosion depth, corrosion allowance and service life, the index model of the relationships among them was established to predict the residual life of pipeline. Furthermore, a domestic oil and gas pipeline was taken as the research object, and its residual life was predicted. It is indicated that this model has a high prediction precision and is not limited to the specific distribution of data. And as the prediction model for the residual life of pipeline, its universality is better.(5 Figures, 2 Tables, 21 References)
In order to predict the residual life of corroded oil and gas pipelines in service, a model for predicting the residual life of pipeline based on the modified Generalized Extreme Value(GEV) distribution was established after the GEV adaptive optimal distribution was investigated in this paper. First, the parameters of GEV distribution function were estimated by means of Markov Chain Monte Carlo method(MCMC)and the type of extreme value distribution was determined accordingly. If the graph is inspected reasonably, this distribution will be used to predict the maximum corrosion depth. Then, the corrosion allowance prediction model was established based on the reliability and safety of pipeline.Finally, based the pipeline data, e.g. maximum corrosion depth, corrosion allowance and service life, the index model of the relationships among them was established to predict the residual life of pipeline. Furthermore, a domestic oil and gas pipeline was taken as the research object, and its residual life was predicted. It is indicated that this model has a high prediction precision and is not limited to the specific distribution of data. And as the prediction model for the residual life of pipeline, its universality is better.(5 Figures, 2 Tables, 21 References)
引文
[1]LARIN O,BARKANOV E,VODKA O.Prediction of reliability of the corroded pipeline considering the randomness of corrosion damage and its stochastic growth[J].Engineering Failure Analysis,2016,66:60-71.
[2]LEIRA B J,NAESS A,NAESS O E.Reliability analysis of corroding pipelines by enhanced Monte Carlo simulation[J].International Journal of Pressure Vessels and Piping,2016,144:11-17.
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[8]张新生,曹乃宁,王小完.Gumbel分布的油气管道的剩余寿命预测[J].中国安全科学学报,2015,25(9):96-101.ZHANG X S,CAO N N,WANG X W.Residual life prediction of oil and gas pipeline based on Gumbel distribution[J].China Safety Science Journal,2015,25(9):96-101.
[9]韩克江,田灿,王新生,等.基于Gumbel极值分布的大型原油储罐剩余寿命预测[J].科学技术与工程,2012,12(13):3211-3215.HAN K J,TIAN C,WANG X S,et al.The remaining life prediction of large-scale oil tank based on the Gumbel extreme value distribution[J].Science Technology and Engineering,2012,12(13):3211-3215.
[10]宋宜四,高万夫,李发根.极值理论应用于埋地管道土壤腐蚀坑深研究[J].油气储运,2009,28(1):33-35,85.SONG Y S,GAO W F,LI F G.Study on the application of extremum statistical method to corrosion pit depth of buried pipeline[J].Oil&Gas Storage and Transportation,2009,28(1):33-35,85.
[11]谢妞妞,左莉.最大腐蚀深度预测算法的分析与实现[J].河南科技,2017(11):48-49.XIE N N,ZUO L.Analysis and implementation of maximum corrosion depth prediction algorithm[J].Journal of Henan Science and Technology,2017(11):48-49.
[12]CHAVES I A,MELCHERS R E.Extreme value analysis for assessing structural reliability of welded offshore steel structures[J].Structural Safety,2014,50:9-15.
[13]WANG X,MELCHERS R E.Long-term under-deposit pitting corrosion of carbon steel pipes[J].Ocean Engineering,2017,133:231-243.
[14]骆正山,王瑞,毕傲睿.Frechet分布的海底油气管道腐蚀预测[J].腐蚀与防护,2017,38(3):214-218.LUO Z S,WANG R,BI A R.Corrosion forecast of offshore oil and gas pipelines based on Frechet distribution[J].Corrosion&Protection,2017,38(3):214-218.
[15]周国强,王雪青,刘锐.基于改进广义极值分布的核管道最大腐蚀深度预测[J].中南大学学报(自然科学版),2013,44(5):1926-1931.ZHOU G Q,WANG X Q,LIU R.A modified generalized extreme value distribution methodology to predict the maximum corrosion depth of nuclear pipes[J].Journal of Central South University(Science and Technology),2013,44(5):1926-1931.
[16]CHENG A,CHEN N Z.Corrosion fatigue crack growth modelling for subsea pipeline steels[J].Ocean Engineering,2017,142:10-19.
[17]刘聪,秦伟良,江志红.基于广义极值分布的设计基本风速及其置信限计算[J].东南大学学报(自然科学版),2006,36(2):331-334.LIU C,QIN W L,JIANG Z H.Computation of design basic wind velocity and its confidence limits based on generalized extreme value distribution[J].Journal of Southeast University(Natural Science Edition),2006,36(2):331-334.
[18]UPADHYAY S K,PESHWANI M.Posterior analysis of lognormal regression models using the Gibbs sampler[J].Statistical Papers,2008,49(1):59-85.
[19]袁照威,陈龙,高世臣,等.基于马尔科夫-贝叶斯模拟算法的多地震属性沉积相建模方法--以苏里格气田苏10区块为例[J].油气地质与采收率,2017,24(3):37-43.YUAN Z W,CHEN L,GAO S C,et al.A method of sedimentary facies modeling through integration of multiseismic attributes based on Markov-Bayes model:an example from Su10 area in the north of Sulige gas field[J].Petroleum Geology and Recovery Efficiency,2017,24(3):37-43.
[20]王立航,郭昱,王秋妍.基于可靠性理论的腐蚀管道剩余寿命预测[J].机械制造,2016,54(7):88-90.WANG L H,GUO Y,WANG Q Y.Prediction of residual life of corrosion pipeline based on reliability theory[J].Machinery,2016,54(7):88-90.
[21]MELCHERS R E.Extreme value statistics and long-term marine pitting corrosion of steel[J].Probabilistic Engineering Mechanics,2008,23(4):482-488.
[2]LEIRA B J,NAESS A,NAESS O E.Reliability analysis of corroding pipelines by enhanced Monte Carlo simulation[J].International Journal of Pressure Vessels and Piping,2016,144:11-17.
[3]VANAEI H R,ESLAMI A,EGBEWANDE A.A review on pipeline corrosion,in-line inspection(ILI),and corrosion growth rate models[J].International Journal of Pressure Vessels and Piping,2017,149:43-54.
[4]STANDARD N.Recomended practice control of external corrosion on underground or submerged metallic piping systems[J].Corrosion Engineering,2013,19(8):346-362.
[5]OSSAI C I,BOSWELL B,DAVIES I J.Application of Markov modelling and Monte Carlo simulation technique in failure probability estimation-a consideration of corrosion defects of internally corroded pipelines[J].Engineering Failure Analysis,2016,68:159-171.
[6]张新生,赵梦旭,王小完.尾段残差修正GM(1,1)模型在管道腐蚀预测中的应用[J].中国安全科学学报,2017,27(1):65-70.ZHANG X S,ZHAO M X,WANG X W.Application of modified empennage residual error GM(1,1)model in prediction of pipeline corrosion[J].China Safety Science Journal,2017,27(1):65-70.
[7]张新生,曹乃宁,李亚云.基于Gumbel极值I型分布埋地油气管道的剩余寿命预测[J].中国腐蚀与防护学报,2016,36(4):370-374.ZHANG X S,CAO N N,LI Y Y.Residual life prediction of buried oil and gas pipelines based on Gumbel extreme value type I distribution[J].Journal of Chinese Society for Corrosion and Protection,2016,36(4):370-374.
[8]张新生,曹乃宁,王小完.Gumbel分布的油气管道的剩余寿命预测[J].中国安全科学学报,2015,25(9):96-101.ZHANG X S,CAO N N,WANG X W.Residual life prediction of oil and gas pipeline based on Gumbel distribution[J].China Safety Science Journal,2015,25(9):96-101.
[9]韩克江,田灿,王新生,等.基于Gumbel极值分布的大型原油储罐剩余寿命预测[J].科学技术与工程,2012,12(13):3211-3215.HAN K J,TIAN C,WANG X S,et al.The remaining life prediction of large-scale oil tank based on the Gumbel extreme value distribution[J].Science Technology and Engineering,2012,12(13):3211-3215.
[10]宋宜四,高万夫,李发根.极值理论应用于埋地管道土壤腐蚀坑深研究[J].油气储运,2009,28(1):33-35,85.SONG Y S,GAO W F,LI F G.Study on the application of extremum statistical method to corrosion pit depth of buried pipeline[J].Oil&Gas Storage and Transportation,2009,28(1):33-35,85.
[11]谢妞妞,左莉.最大腐蚀深度预测算法的分析与实现[J].河南科技,2017(11):48-49.XIE N N,ZUO L.Analysis and implementation of maximum corrosion depth prediction algorithm[J].Journal of Henan Science and Technology,2017(11):48-49.
[12]CHAVES I A,MELCHERS R E.Extreme value analysis for assessing structural reliability of welded offshore steel structures[J].Structural Safety,2014,50:9-15.
[13]WANG X,MELCHERS R E.Long-term under-deposit pitting corrosion of carbon steel pipes[J].Ocean Engineering,2017,133:231-243.
[14]骆正山,王瑞,毕傲睿.Frechet分布的海底油气管道腐蚀预测[J].腐蚀与防护,2017,38(3):214-218.LUO Z S,WANG R,BI A R.Corrosion forecast of offshore oil and gas pipelines based on Frechet distribution[J].Corrosion&Protection,2017,38(3):214-218.
[15]周国强,王雪青,刘锐.基于改进广义极值分布的核管道最大腐蚀深度预测[J].中南大学学报(自然科学版),2013,44(5):1926-1931.ZHOU G Q,WANG X Q,LIU R.A modified generalized extreme value distribution methodology to predict the maximum corrosion depth of nuclear pipes[J].Journal of Central South University(Science and Technology),2013,44(5):1926-1931.
[16]CHENG A,CHEN N Z.Corrosion fatigue crack growth modelling for subsea pipeline steels[J].Ocean Engineering,2017,142:10-19.
[17]刘聪,秦伟良,江志红.基于广义极值分布的设计基本风速及其置信限计算[J].东南大学学报(自然科学版),2006,36(2):331-334.LIU C,QIN W L,JIANG Z H.Computation of design basic wind velocity and its confidence limits based on generalized extreme value distribution[J].Journal of Southeast University(Natural Science Edition),2006,36(2):331-334.
[18]UPADHYAY S K,PESHWANI M.Posterior analysis of lognormal regression models using the Gibbs sampler[J].Statistical Papers,2008,49(1):59-85.
[19]袁照威,陈龙,高世臣,等.基于马尔科夫-贝叶斯模拟算法的多地震属性沉积相建模方法--以苏里格气田苏10区块为例[J].油气地质与采收率,2017,24(3):37-43.YUAN Z W,CHEN L,GAO S C,et al.A method of sedimentary facies modeling through integration of multiseismic attributes based on Markov-Bayes model:an example from Su10 area in the north of Sulige gas field[J].Petroleum Geology and Recovery Efficiency,2017,24(3):37-43.
[20]王立航,郭昱,王秋妍.基于可靠性理论的腐蚀管道剩余寿命预测[J].机械制造,2016,54(7):88-90.WANG L H,GUO Y,WANG Q Y.Prediction of residual life of corrosion pipeline based on reliability theory[J].Machinery,2016,54(7):88-90.
[21]MELCHERS R E.Extreme value statistics and long-term marine pitting corrosion of steel[J].Probabilistic Engineering Mechanics,2008,23(4):482-488.