电影在线评分对票房的影响实证研究
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摘要
电影在线评分作为影片口碑的表征,是影响观影需求、影院排片策略和电影票房的重要因素。但目前电影评分体系的科学性、评分与票房的相关性、不同平台评分的差异性、评分对票房的影响等问题的实证研究较欠缺。本文收集了国内主要电影资讯和社交平台的电影评分数据,通过回归分析及统计检验,对在线评价与票房的关系进行量化研究与可视化分析,以期发现电影在线评分的规律,为互联网语境下的电影评价体系构建及票房预测提供参考。
As a characterization of the word of mouth of films, online film rating is an important factor affecting audiences' demands for watching films, cinemas' film arrangement strategies and box office revenue. However, there is still no empirical research on the scientificity of film rating systems, the correlation between scores and box office, the differences between different platforms in rating, and the impact of scores on box office. In this paper, the film rating data of the major film information and social contact platforms in China are collected, the relationship between online evaluation and box office is researched quantitatively and analyzed visually through regression analysis and statistical test, in order to discover the law of online film rating, thus providing reference for the establishment of film evaluation systems and box office prediction in the context of the Internet.
As a characterization of the word of mouth of films, online film rating is an important factor affecting audiences' demands for watching films, cinemas' film arrangement strategies and box office revenue. However, there is still no empirical research on the scientificity of film rating systems, the correlation between scores and box office, the differences between different platforms in rating, and the impact of scores on box office. In this paper, the film rating data of the major film information and social contact platforms in China are collected, the relationship between online evaluation and box office is researched quantitatively and analyzed visually through regression analysis and statistical test, in order to discover the law of online film rating, thus providing reference for the establishment of film evaluation systems and box office prediction in the context of the Internet.
引文
1刘正山,易婧.“恶评”界定及其存在性检验--基于2014-2016年370部电影的实证分析.当代电影,2017,(05):4-10.
2王伟.“初始锚定”与“算法正义”--美国电影网络评分机制与电影产业.当代电影,2017,(05):10-16.
3齐伟.迷影偏好、观影取向与票房制衡--网络电影评分现状研究.当代电影,2015,(11):177-181.
4刘正山.在线评价、电影异质性与票房收入--基于2014-2015年177部国产电影数据的检验.电影艺术,2016,(03):68-72.
5张律疏,李敏,张捷.在线评分对中国电影北美票房的影响研究.电影艺术,2017,(05):155-160.
6刘正山.“恶评”对中国电影市场的影响.中国电影市场,2017,(03):15-17.
7 Correlations between user voting data,budget,and box office for films in the internet movie database.Journal of the Association for Information Science and Technology,2015,66(4):858-868.
8郭红,吕皆宇.中美电影评分机制比较.西部广播电视,2017,(22):90-96.
9 Otterbacher J.Gender,writing and ranking in review forums:a case study of the IMDb.Knowledge and Information Systems,2013,35(3):645-664.
10 Wong F M F,Sen S,Chiang M.Why Watching Movie Tweets Won't Tell the Whole Story?.//Acm Workshop on Workshop on Online Social Networks.ACM,2012.
11 Sang H K,Park N,Park S H.Exploring the Effects of Online Word of Mouth and Expert Reviews on Theatrical Movies'Box Office Success.Journal of Media Economics,2013,26(2):98-114.
2王伟.“初始锚定”与“算法正义”--美国电影网络评分机制与电影产业.当代电影,2017,(05):10-16.
3齐伟.迷影偏好、观影取向与票房制衡--网络电影评分现状研究.当代电影,2015,(11):177-181.
4刘正山.在线评价、电影异质性与票房收入--基于2014-2015年177部国产电影数据的检验.电影艺术,2016,(03):68-72.
5张律疏,李敏,张捷.在线评分对中国电影北美票房的影响研究.电影艺术,2017,(05):155-160.
6刘正山.“恶评”对中国电影市场的影响.中国电影市场,2017,(03):15-17.
7 Correlations between user voting data,budget,and box office for films in the internet movie database.Journal of the Association for Information Science and Technology,2015,66(4):858-868.
8郭红,吕皆宇.中美电影评分机制比较.西部广播电视,2017,(22):90-96.
9 Otterbacher J.Gender,writing and ranking in review forums:a case study of the IMDb.Knowledge and Information Systems,2013,35(3):645-664.
10 Wong F M F,Sen S,Chiang M.Why Watching Movie Tweets Won't Tell the Whole Story?.//Acm Workshop on Workshop on Online Social Networks.ACM,2012.
11 Sang H K,Park N,Park S H.Exploring the Effects of Online Word of Mouth and Expert Reviews on Theatrical Movies'Box Office Success.Journal of Media Economics,2013,26(2):98-114.