京津冀经济圈城镇化影响因素实证研究及对策分析
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摘要
本文采用2011～2016年中国京津冀经济圈的面板数据,利用固定效应模型测算京津冀经济圈城镇化的影响因素并对其进行分析,以期为京津冀经济圈城镇化建设提出针对性建议。实证结果表明:京津冀经济圈城镇化影响因素中第三产业产值比重、城镇单位就业人员平均工资、医院床位数以及地方财政教育支出对京津冀经济圈城镇化发展产生一定影响,而客运量、货运量、中小学数量、城市污水日处理能力、社会保障和就业支出以及生活垃圾无害化处理率等指标对京津冀经济圈城镇化发展没有形成显著作用,因此可以通过调整产业结构、加强医疗协同发展和教育协同推进来加快京津冀经济圈城镇化发展。
Based on panel data of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei economic circle from 2011 to 2016, this paper calculates and analyses the influencing factors of urbanization in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei economic circle by using fixed effect model, with a view to putting forward pertinent suggestions for urbanization construction in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei economic circle. The empirical results show that the proportion of tertiary industry output value, average wages of urban employees, number of hospital beds and local financial and educational expenditure have a certain impact on the urbanization development of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei economic circle, while passenger traffic, freight volume, number of primary and secondary schools,daily disposal capacity of urban sewage, social security and employment expenditure and living waste. The harmless disposal rate of waste has no significant effect on the urbanization development of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei economic circle.Therefore, the urbanization development of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei economic circle can be accelerated by adjusting the industrial structure, strengthening the coordinated development of medical treatment and education.
Based on panel data of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei economic circle from 2011 to 2016, this paper calculates and analyses the influencing factors of urbanization in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei economic circle by using fixed effect model, with a view to putting forward pertinent suggestions for urbanization construction in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei economic circle. The empirical results show that the proportion of tertiary industry output value, average wages of urban employees, number of hospital beds and local financial and educational expenditure have a certain impact on the urbanization development of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei economic circle, while passenger traffic, freight volume, number of primary and secondary schools,daily disposal capacity of urban sewage, social security and employment expenditure and living waste. The harmless disposal rate of waste has no significant effect on the urbanization development of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei economic circle.Therefore, the urbanization development of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei economic circle can be accelerated by adjusting the industrial structure, strengthening the coordinated development of medical treatment and education.
引文
[1]蓝庆新,陈超凡.新型城镇化推动产业结构升级了吗?--基于中国省级面板数据的空间计量研究[J].财经研究,2013,39(12):57-71.
[2]王新越,刘二恋,候娟娟.山东省旅游城镇化响应的时空分异特征与类型研究[J].地理科学,2017,37(07):1087-1094.
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[8]王琴梅,方妮.乡村生态旅游促进新型城镇化的实证分析--以西安市长安区为例[J].旅游学刊,2017,32(01):77-88.
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[13]陆铭,高虹,佐藤宏.城市规模与包容性就业[J].中国社会科学,2012(10):47-66+206.
[14]张占斌.新型城镇化的战略意义和改革难题[J].国家行政学院学报,2013(01):48-54.
[15]陆大道,陈明星.关于“国家新型城镇化规划(2014-2020)”编制大背景的几点认识[J].地理学报,2015,70(02):179-185.
[16]朱诚,姜逢清,吴立,曾蒙秀,贾天骄,周生路,宁越敏,于军,冯学智.对全球变化背景下长三角地区城镇化发展科学问题的思考[J].地理学报,2017,72(04):633-645.
[17]杨钧.中国城镇化发展对农业产业结构的影响.经济经纬[J],2016,33(6):84-89.
[18]谢呈阳,胡汉辉,周海波.新型城镇化背景下“产城融合”的内在机理与作用路径[J].财经研究,2016,42(01):72-82.
[19]韩立达,牟雪淞.新型城镇化影响因素研究--对四川省数据的实证分析[J].经济问题探索,2018(01):55-62
[20]向丽华.武汉城市圈人口空间均衡与区域可持续发展[M].北京:中国地质大学出版社,2013:80-100.
[21]沈根祥.计量经济学[M].上海:上海财经大学出版社,2010:127.
[2]王新越,刘二恋,候娟娟.山东省旅游城镇化响应的时空分异特征与类型研究[J].地理科学,2017,37(07):1087-1094.
[3]BOSWORTH B,COLLINS S M.2008.United States-China trade:where are the exports?[J].Journal of Chinese Economic and Business Studies,6(1):1-21.
[4]MCMILLAN M S,RODRIK D.2011.Globalization,structural change and productivity growth[R].National Bureau of Economic Research.
[5]杨振,雷军,英成龙,段祖亮.新疆县域城镇化的综合测度及空间分异格局分析[J].干旱区地理,2017,40(01):230-237.
[6]WU J J,FISHERM,PASCUAL U.2011.Urbanization and the viability of local agricultural economies[J].Land Economics,87(1):109-125.
[7]仇保兴.新型城镇化:从概念到行动[J].行政管理改革,2012(11):11-18.
[8]王琴梅,方妮.乡村生态旅游促进新型城镇化的实证分析--以西安市长安区为例[J].旅游学刊,2017,32(01):77-88.
[9]刘嘉汉,罗蓉.以发展权为核心的新型城镇化道路研究[J].经济学家,2011(05):82-88.
[10]刘立峰.对新型城镇化进程中若干问题的思考[J].宏观经济研究,2013(05):3-6+36.
[11]熊湘辉,徐璋勇.中国城镇化进程中的金融支持影响研究[J].数量经济技术经济研究,2015(06):73-89.
[12]张丽琴,陈烈.新型城镇化影响因素的实证研究--以河北省为例[J].中央财经大学学报,2013(12):84-91.
[13]陆铭,高虹,佐藤宏.城市规模与包容性就业[J].中国社会科学,2012(10):47-66+206.
[14]张占斌.新型城镇化的战略意义和改革难题[J].国家行政学院学报,2013(01):48-54.
[15]陆大道,陈明星.关于“国家新型城镇化规划(2014-2020)”编制大背景的几点认识[J].地理学报,2015,70(02):179-185.
[16]朱诚,姜逢清,吴立,曾蒙秀,贾天骄,周生路,宁越敏,于军,冯学智.对全球变化背景下长三角地区城镇化发展科学问题的思考[J].地理学报,2017,72(04):633-645.
[17]杨钧.中国城镇化发展对农业产业结构的影响.经济经纬[J],2016,33(6):84-89.
[18]谢呈阳,胡汉辉,周海波.新型城镇化背景下“产城融合”的内在机理与作用路径[J].财经研究,2016,42(01):72-82.
[19]韩立达,牟雪淞.新型城镇化影响因素研究--对四川省数据的实证分析[J].经济问题探索,2018(01):55-62
[20]向丽华.武汉城市圈人口空间均衡与区域可持续发展[M].北京:中国地质大学出版社,2013:80-100.
[21]沈根祥.计量经济学[M].上海:上海财经大学出版社,2010:127.