1961-2016年伊犁地区风速时空变化分析
|
摘要
【目的】通过对伊犁地区的风速进行研究,揭示其变化规律,为当地生态环境的改善、能源合理开发利用、工农业生产提供科学依据和数据支持。【方法】采用线性趋势线拟合、小波分析、Mann-Kendall等方法对新疆伊犁地区8个地面气象站实测的近56年逐日风速资料数据进行回归、周期、突变等特征分析。【结果】研究显示:①1961-2016年,伊犁地区平均风速以-0.171 m/(s·a)的变化速率呈波动减小趋势,在四季平均风速变化中,春季风速降低趋势最为显著,递减率最大-0.196 m/(s·a),冬季风速递减趋势变化最小。②风速在长时间尺度的变化中还存在突变的表现,年平均风速在1979年前后出现明显的突变点。③Morlet小波分析表明,年平均风速存在2个震荡周期变化,以18年震荡周期最为显著;四季震荡周期与全年风速震荡周期基本吻合,但又存在差异。④从空间分布来看,伊犁地区风速主要由西北向东、向西递减,风速倾向率均为减小趋势,尼勒克减小最为显著[-0.273 m/(s·a)]。【结论】伊犁地区风速的变化趋势与全国基本吻合,但其减小的速率要高于全国的速率。
【Objective】Through the research on the wind speed in Yili area, the present paper revealed the changing law, provided scientific basis and data support for the improvement of local ecological environment, rational development and utilization of energy, industrial and agricultural production.【Method】The characteristics of regression, periodicity and mutation were analyzed by linear fitting, wavelet analysis and Mann-Kendall method in the past 56 years of daily wind speed data were measured by 8 ground meteorological stations in Yili, Xinjiang. 【Result】(i) During the period from 1961 to 2016, the average wind speed in Yili area showed a decreasing trend with a rate of change of-0.171 m/(s·a). The spring wind speed decreased the most obviously in the four seasons, and the decline rate was also the largest-0.196. m/(s·a), while the trend of decreasing wind speed in winter was the least obvious.(ii)The long-term change of wind speed also had certain abrupt change, and the annual average wind speed had obvious mutation points around 1979.(iii)The results of Morlet wavelet analysis showed that there were two oscillation periods in the annual average wind speed, which was the most significant in the 18 years oscillation period. The four seasons oscillation period was basically consistent with the annual wind speed oscillation period, but there were differences.(iv) From the perspective of spatial distribution, the wind speed in Yili area decreased from northwest to east and westward, and the wind speed tendency rate decreased. The Nilek decrease was the most significant[-0.273 m/(s·a)].【Conclusion】The trend of wind speed in Yili was basically consistent with that of the whole country, but its rate of decrease was higher than that of the whole country.
【Objective】Through the research on the wind speed in Yili area, the present paper revealed the changing law, provided scientific basis and data support for the improvement of local ecological environment, rational development and utilization of energy, industrial and agricultural production.【Method】The characteristics of regression, periodicity and mutation were analyzed by linear fitting, wavelet analysis and Mann-Kendall method in the past 56 years of daily wind speed data were measured by 8 ground meteorological stations in Yili, Xinjiang. 【Result】(i) During the period from 1961 to 2016, the average wind speed in Yili area showed a decreasing trend with a rate of change of-0.171 m/(s·a). The spring wind speed decreased the most obviously in the four seasons, and the decline rate was also the largest-0.196. m/(s·a), while the trend of decreasing wind speed in winter was the least obvious.(ii)The long-term change of wind speed also had certain abrupt change, and the annual average wind speed had obvious mutation points around 1979.(iii)The results of Morlet wavelet analysis showed that there were two oscillation periods in the annual average wind speed, which was the most significant in the 18 years oscillation period. The four seasons oscillation period was basically consistent with the annual wind speed oscillation period, but there were differences.(iv) From the perspective of spatial distribution, the wind speed in Yili area decreased from northwest to east and westward, and the wind speed tendency rate decreased. The Nilek decrease was the most significant[-0.273 m/(s·a)].【Conclusion】The trend of wind speed in Yili was basically consistent with that of the whole country, but its rate of decrease was higher than that of the whole country.
引文
[1]郭春燕.近50年内蒙古自治区风速变化周期及突变分析[J].干旱区资源与环境,2015,29(9):154-158.
[2]朱飙, 李春华, 马鹏里,等. 甘肃省风速变化趋势分析[J]. 干旱区资源与环境, 2012, 26(12): 90-96.
[3]张克新, 潘少明, 曹立国. 1961-2010 年河西地区平均风速时空变化趋势分析[J]. 地理科学, 2014, 34(11): 1404-1408.
[4]强明瑞,肖舜,张家武,等.柴达木盆地北部风速对尘暴事件降尘的影响[J].中国沙漠,2007,27(2):290-295.
[5]马淑红,戈峰,陈晓光,等.古尔班通古特沙漠瞬间最大风速时空分布特征[J].资源科学,2007,29(4):46-53.
[6]Roderick M L,Rotstayn L D,Farquhar G D,Hobbins M T. On the tribution of changing pan evaporation[J].Geophy.Res.Lett,2007,34,L17403,doi:10.1029/2007GL031166.
[7]MCVICAR T R,VAN NIELT G,LI LT,et al. Wind speed climatology and trends for Australia,1975-2006:Capturing the stilling phenomenon and comparison with near-surface reanalysis output[J]. Geophysical Research Letters,2008,35(20):L20403.
[8]任国玉, 郭军, 徐铭志, 等.近 50年中国地面气候变化基本特征[J]. 气象学报, 2005, 63(6): 942-956.
[9]王遵娅,丁一汇,何金海,等.近年来中国气候变化特征的再分析[J].气象学报,2004,62(2):228-236.
[10]WANG B,LI T. East Asian monsoon and ENSO interactions[M]//CHANG C P. East Asian Monsoon. Hackensack:World Scientific,2004:177-212.
[11]何毅, 杨太保, 陈杰, 等.1960-2013年南北疆风速变化特征分析[J].干旱区地理,2015,38(2):249-259.
[12]吴占华,任国玉,徐卫丽,等. 我国北方沙尘天气的气候成因分析[J].干旱区地理,2011,34(3):429-434.
[13]张明军,李瑞雪,黄小燕,等.中国天山山区风速变化特征[J].干旱区资源与环境,2012,26(7):79-83.
[14]张智,郑广芬,林莉,等.宁夏大风日数气候变化及其对沙尘天气的影响[J].干旱区资源与环境,2006,20(4):30-34.
[15]李耀辉,张存杰,高学杰.西北地区大风日数的时空分布特征[J].中国沙漠,2004,24(6):715-723.
[16]刘贤赵,张安定,李嘉竹.地理学数学方法[M].北京:科学出版社,2009:127-138.
[17]申倩倩,束炯,王行恒.上海地区近136年气温和降水量变化的多尺度分析[J].自然资源学报,2011,26(4):644-654.
[18]刘晓琼,刘彦随,李同昇,等.1974-2012年陕西省榆林市气候变化统计特征[J].中国沙漠,2016,36(2):1-6.
[19]任国玉,郭军,徐铭志,等.近50年中国地面气候变化基本特征[J].气象学报,2005,25(3):194-200.
[20]刘栎彤.新疆气象灾害时间对称性研究[D].西安:陕西师范大学,2014.
[21]张丽花,延军平,刘栎杉.山西气候变化特征与旱涝灾害趋势判断[J].干旱区资源与环境,2013,27(5):120-125.
[22]道然·加帕依,车罡. 新疆东部地区风速的年际变化及其成因[J].干旱气象,2008,26(3):14-21.
[23]XU X K,LEVY J K,LIN Z H.An investigation of sand dust storm events and land surface characteristics in China using NOAA NDVI data[J]. Global and Planetary Change,2006,52(1/4): 182-196.
[24]王绍武,叶瑾琳,龚道溢.近百年中国气温序列的建立[J].应用气象学报,1998,9(4):392-401.
[25]Guo H,Xu M,Hu Q. Changes in near-surface wind speed in China: 1969-2005[J]. International Journal of Climatology,2011,31(3): 349-358.
[26]江滢,罗勇,赵宗慈,等. 近50年中国风速变化及原因分析[C].2007年中国气象学会年会会刊,2007:80-89.
[2]朱飙, 李春华, 马鹏里,等. 甘肃省风速变化趋势分析[J]. 干旱区资源与环境, 2012, 26(12): 90-96.
[3]张克新, 潘少明, 曹立国. 1961-2010 年河西地区平均风速时空变化趋势分析[J]. 地理科学, 2014, 34(11): 1404-1408.
[4]强明瑞,肖舜,张家武,等.柴达木盆地北部风速对尘暴事件降尘的影响[J].中国沙漠,2007,27(2):290-295.
[5]马淑红,戈峰,陈晓光,等.古尔班通古特沙漠瞬间最大风速时空分布特征[J].资源科学,2007,29(4):46-53.
[6]Roderick M L,Rotstayn L D,Farquhar G D,Hobbins M T. On the tribution of changing pan evaporation[J].Geophy.Res.Lett,2007,34,L17403,doi:10.1029/2007GL031166.
[7]MCVICAR T R,VAN NIELT G,LI LT,et al. Wind speed climatology and trends for Australia,1975-2006:Capturing the stilling phenomenon and comparison with near-surface reanalysis output[J]. Geophysical Research Letters,2008,35(20):L20403.
[8]任国玉, 郭军, 徐铭志, 等.近 50年中国地面气候变化基本特征[J]. 气象学报, 2005, 63(6): 942-956.
[9]王遵娅,丁一汇,何金海,等.近年来中国气候变化特征的再分析[J].气象学报,2004,62(2):228-236.
[10]WANG B,LI T. East Asian monsoon and ENSO interactions[M]//CHANG C P. East Asian Monsoon. Hackensack:World Scientific,2004:177-212.
[11]何毅, 杨太保, 陈杰, 等.1960-2013年南北疆风速变化特征分析[J].干旱区地理,2015,38(2):249-259.
[12]吴占华,任国玉,徐卫丽,等. 我国北方沙尘天气的气候成因分析[J].干旱区地理,2011,34(3):429-434.
[13]张明军,李瑞雪,黄小燕,等.中国天山山区风速变化特征[J].干旱区资源与环境,2012,26(7):79-83.
[14]张智,郑广芬,林莉,等.宁夏大风日数气候变化及其对沙尘天气的影响[J].干旱区资源与环境,2006,20(4):30-34.
[15]李耀辉,张存杰,高学杰.西北地区大风日数的时空分布特征[J].中国沙漠,2004,24(6):715-723.
[16]刘贤赵,张安定,李嘉竹.地理学数学方法[M].北京:科学出版社,2009:127-138.
[17]申倩倩,束炯,王行恒.上海地区近136年气温和降水量变化的多尺度分析[J].自然资源学报,2011,26(4):644-654.
[18]刘晓琼,刘彦随,李同昇,等.1974-2012年陕西省榆林市气候变化统计特征[J].中国沙漠,2016,36(2):1-6.
[19]任国玉,郭军,徐铭志,等.近50年中国地面气候变化基本特征[J].气象学报,2005,25(3):194-200.
[20]刘栎彤.新疆气象灾害时间对称性研究[D].西安:陕西师范大学,2014.
[21]张丽花,延军平,刘栎杉.山西气候变化特征与旱涝灾害趋势判断[J].干旱区资源与环境,2013,27(5):120-125.
[22]道然·加帕依,车罡. 新疆东部地区风速的年际变化及其成因[J].干旱气象,2008,26(3):14-21.
[23]XU X K,LEVY J K,LIN Z H.An investigation of sand dust storm events and land surface characteristics in China using NOAA NDVI data[J]. Global and Planetary Change,2006,52(1/4): 182-196.
[24]王绍武,叶瑾琳,龚道溢.近百年中国气温序列的建立[J].应用气象学报,1998,9(4):392-401.
[25]Guo H,Xu M,Hu Q. Changes in near-surface wind speed in China: 1969-2005[J]. International Journal of Climatology,2011,31(3): 349-358.
[26]江滢,罗勇,赵宗慈,等. 近50年中国风速变化及原因分析[C].2007年中国气象学会年会会刊,2007:80-89.