基于韦伯分布的地震潜源强震危险性分析方法
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摘要
本文在假设地震发震时间间隔序列服从二参量韦伯分布的研究成果基础上,引入最短地震发震时间间隔参量,假设发震时间间隔服从三参量韦伯分布,分别计算二参量和三参量韦伯分布的地震潜源区的强震危险性。本文将马尼拉海沟作为案例区域研究,通过比较两种方法的差别和优劣性,发现三参量韦伯分布相对二参量韦伯分布对未来地震的预测更加精确。
Based on the assumption that Earthquakes interval sequence obey two Parametric research foundation Weibull on the introduction of a minimum Earthquakes interval parameter, it is assumed earthquake interval obey three-parameter Weibull distribution are calculated two parameter and three-parameter Weibull distribution of seismic Risks latent tsunami source area.This article will serve as a regional case study Manila Trench, through comparing the differences and advantages of two methods,we found three parameter weibull distribution is relatively two parameter weibull distribution for the future earthquake prediction more accurate.
Based on the assumption that Earthquakes interval sequence obey two Parametric research foundation Weibull on the introduction of a minimum Earthquakes interval parameter, it is assumed earthquake interval obey three-parameter Weibull distribution are calculated two parameter and three-parameter Weibull distribution of seismic Risks latent tsunami source area.This article will serve as a regional case study Manila Trench, through comparing the differences and advantages of two methods,we found three parameter weibull distribution is relatively two parameter weibull distribution for the future earthquake prediction more accurate.
引文
[1]Rikitake T.Probability of a great earthquake to recur in the Tokai district,Japan:reevaluation based on newly-developed paleoseismology,plate tectonics,tsunami study,microseismicity and geodetic measurements[J].Earth Planets and Space,1999,51(3):147-158.
[2]李志雄,李献智,傅征祥.华北地区主要地震带中强震潜在危险性估计[J].地震地磁观测与研究,1993,14(3):25-32.
[3]杨晓蔚.滚动轴承疲劳寿命韦伯分布三参数的研究[D].合肥:合肥工业大学,2003.
[4]李志雄,高旭,吕梅梅等.中国大陆7级大震序列时间特征及中期预测方法[J].地震,1995,2:97-105.
[5]钱小仕,王福昌,曹桂荣等.广义极值分布在地震危险性分析中的应用[J].地震研究,2012,35(1):73-77.
[6]史景钊,杨星钊,陈新昌.3参数韦伯分布参数估计方法的比较研究[J].河南农业大学学报,2009,43(4):405-409.
[7]温瑞智,任叶飞.我国地震海啸危险性分析方法研究[J].世界地震工程,2007,23(1):6-11.
[8]刘庭耀,赵晓辉.疲劳寿命的韦伯概率分布回归检验与参数估计[J].飞机工程,2006(1):43-45.
[2]李志雄,李献智,傅征祥.华北地区主要地震带中强震潜在危险性估计[J].地震地磁观测与研究,1993,14(3):25-32.
[3]杨晓蔚.滚动轴承疲劳寿命韦伯分布三参数的研究[D].合肥:合肥工业大学,2003.
[4]李志雄,高旭,吕梅梅等.中国大陆7级大震序列时间特征及中期预测方法[J].地震,1995,2:97-105.
[5]钱小仕,王福昌,曹桂荣等.广义极值分布在地震危险性分析中的应用[J].地震研究,2012,35(1):73-77.
[6]史景钊,杨星钊,陈新昌.3参数韦伯分布参数估计方法的比较研究[J].河南农业大学学报,2009,43(4):405-409.
[7]温瑞智,任叶飞.我国地震海啸危险性分析方法研究[J].世界地震工程,2007,23(1):6-11.
[8]刘庭耀,赵晓辉.疲劳寿命的韦伯概率分布回归检验与参数估计[J].飞机工程,2006(1):43-45.