京津冀地区近55年气候演变特征分析
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摘要
基于京津冀地区22个气象站1961-2015年的逐月气候资料,采用气候倾向率、Mann-Kendall突变检测、Morlet小波分析、反距离权重插值(IDW)等方法,研究了近55a来京津冀地区气象要素的时空演变规律。结果表明:(1)京津冀地区整体呈现出降水减少、气温上升、日照减少、相对湿度降低、风速下降的趋势。(2)各气候要素都在1979-1989年间发生了突变,年降水在1996年发生了第二次突变。(3)各气候要素均表现出多时间尺度耦合的复杂特性,其第一主周期尺度介于8~25a之间。(4)年均温由南向北递减,中、西部为升温速率的高值区;降水及其变率均自东向西递减;日照时数由南向北递增,而其变率则与之相反;相对湿度由东南向西北递减,其变率则由西南向东北递减;平均风速及其变率的高值中心均为张北和塘沽。
Based on the climatic data of 22 meteorological stations in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region from 1961 to 2015,by means of the climate tendency rate,Mann-Kendall mutation test,Morlet wavelet analysis,and inverse distance weighting(IDW),we systematically studied the temporal-spatial variations of climatic variables over the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region in the recent 55 years.The results showed that:1)In the past 55 years,the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region underwent an increase of temperature and a decrease of sunshine,precipitation,wind speed,and average relative humidity.2)The climatic variables all went through a sudden change in 1979-1989,and the annual precipitation went through a second sudden change in 1996.3)The climatic variables all showed a complex characteristic of coupling at multiple time scales,and their first main period scales ranged from 8 to 25 years.4)In Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region,the average air temperature showed a decreasing trend from south to north,with the change rate peaking in the central and western area.Both precipitation and its change rate showed a decreasing trend from east to west.Sunshine hours showed an increasing trend from south to north,while its change rate showed the opposite trend.Relative humidity showed a decreasing trend from southeast to northwest,while its change rate showed a decreasing trend from southwest to northeast.The peaks of wind speed and its change rate both appeared in Zhangbei and Tanggu area.
Based on the climatic data of 22 meteorological stations in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region from 1961 to 2015,by means of the climate tendency rate,Mann-Kendall mutation test,Morlet wavelet analysis,and inverse distance weighting(IDW),we systematically studied the temporal-spatial variations of climatic variables over the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region in the recent 55 years.The results showed that:1)In the past 55 years,the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region underwent an increase of temperature and a decrease of sunshine,precipitation,wind speed,and average relative humidity.2)The climatic variables all went through a sudden change in 1979-1989,and the annual precipitation went through a second sudden change in 1996.3)The climatic variables all showed a complex characteristic of coupling at multiple time scales,and their first main period scales ranged from 8 to 25 years.4)In Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region,the average air temperature showed a decreasing trend from south to north,with the change rate peaking in the central and western area.Both precipitation and its change rate showed a decreasing trend from east to west.Sunshine hours showed an increasing trend from south to north,while its change rate showed the opposite trend.Relative humidity showed a decreasing trend from southeast to northwest,while its change rate showed a decreasing trend from southwest to northeast.The peaks of wind speed and its change rate both appeared in Zhangbei and Tanggu area.
引文
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[16]赵东,罗勇,高歌,等.1961年至2007年中国日照的演变及其关键气候特征[J].资源科学,2010,32(4):701-711.(ZHAO D,LUO Y,GAO G,et al.Long-Term changes and essential climatic characteristics of sunshine duration over China during1961-2007[J].Resources Science,2010,32(4):701-711.(in Chinese))
[17]李慧群,付遵涛,闻新宇.等.中国地区日照时数近50年来的变化特征[J].气候与环境研究,2013,18(2):203-209.(LI H Q,FU Z T,WEN X Y,et al.Characteristic analysis of sunshine duration change in China during the last 50years[J].Climatic and Environmental Research,2013,18(2):203-209.(in Chinese))Doi:10.3878/j.issn.1006-9585.2012.11052.
[18]郑小波,罗宇翔,段长春,等.云贵高原近45年来日照及能见度变化及其成因初步分析[J].高原气象,2010,29(4):992-998.(ZHENG X B,LUO Y X,DUAN C C,et al.Change trends and causes in sunshine duration and visibility over Yunnan-Guizhou Plateau in recent 45years[J].Plateau Meteorology,2010,29(4):992-998.(in Chinese))
[19]刘玉英,韦小丽,李宇凡.1961-2012年吉林省日照时数的变化特征及影响因素[J].自然资源学报,2015(8):1367-1377.(LIU Y Y,WEI X L,LI Y F.Variation of sunshine duration and related driving forces in Jilin Province during 1961-2012[J].Journal of Natural Resources,2015(8):1367-1377.(in Chinese))Doi:10.10.11849/zrzyxb.2015.08.011.
[20]王跃思,张军科,王莉莉,等.京津冀区域大气霾污染研究意义、现状及展望[J].地球科学进展,2014,29(3):388-396.(WANG Y S,ZHANG J K,WANG L L,et al.Researching significance,status and expectation of haze in Beijing-Tianjin Hebei region[J].Advance in Earth Science,2014,29(3):388-396.(in Chinese))Doi:10.11867/j.issn.1001-8166.2014.03.0388.
[21]赵普生,徐晓峰,孟伟,等.京津冀区域霾天气特征[J].中国环境科学,2012,32(1):31-36.(ZHAO P S,XU X F,MENG W,et al.Characteristics of hazy days in the region of Beijing,Tianjin,and Hebei[J].China Environmental Science,2012,32(1):31-36.(in Chinese))
[22]范泽孟,岳天祥,陈传法,等.中国气温与降水的时空变化趋势分析[J].地球信息科学学报,2011,13(4):526-533.(FAN Z M,YUE T X,CHEN C F,et al.Spatian change trends of temperature and precipitation in China[J].Journal of Geo-Information Science,2011,13(4):526-533.(in Chinese))Doi:10.3724/SP.J 1047.2011.00526.
[23]阿多,熊凯,赵文吉,等.1960~2013年华北平原气候变化时空特征及其对太阳活动和大气环境变化的响应[J].地理科学,2016,36(10):1555-1564.(A D,XIONG K,ZHAO W J,et al.Temporal trend of climate change and mutation analysis of North China Plain during 1960to 2013[J].Scientia Geographica Sinica,2016,36(10):1555-1564.(in Chinese))Doi:10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2016.10.013.
[24]张一驰,吴凯,于静洁,等.华北地区1951-2009年气温、降水变化特征[J].自然资源学报,2011,26(11):1930-1941.(ZHANG Y C,WU K,YU J J,et al.Characteristics of precipitation and air temperature variation during 1951-2009in North China[J].Journal of Natural Resources,2011,26(11):1930-1941.(in Chinese))
[2]李鹏飞,刘文军,赵昕奕.京津冀地区近50年气温、降水与潜在蒸散量变化分析[J].干旱区资源与环境,2015,29(3):137-143.(LI P F,LIU W J,ZHAO X Y.The changes of atmospheric temperature,precipitation and potential evapotranspiration in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region in recent 50years[J].Journal of Arid Land Resources and Environment,2015,29(3):137-143.(in Chinese))Doi:10.13448/j.cnki.jalre.2015.094.
[3]刘芳圆,肖嗣荣,刘寒,等.河北地区气候变化及其对农业的影响[J].地理与地理信息科学,2014,30(4):122-126.(LIU F Y,XIAO S R,LIU H,et al.Research of impacts of climate change on agriculture in Hebei Region[J].Geography and Geo-Information Science,2014,30(4):122-126.(in Chinese))Doi:10.3969/j.issn.1672-0504.2014.04.025.
[4]张国华,张江涛,金晓青,等.京津冀城市高温的气候特征及城市化效应[J].生态环境学报,2012,21(3):455-463.(ZHANG G H,ZHANG J T,JIN X Q,et al.Climate characteristics and effects of urbanization of the urban high temperature of Beijing,Tianjin and Hebei,China[J].Ecology and Environmental Sciences,2012,21(3):455-463.(in Chinese))Doi:10.16258/j.cnki.1674-5906.2012.03.010.
[5]段丽瑶,丁一汇,任雨.1921-2010年天津气温和降水量序列的多尺度分析[J].气候与环境研究,2014,19(4):515-522.(DUAN L Y,DING Y H,REN Y.Multiscale examination on the temperature and precipitation series in Tianjin during 1921-2010[J].Climatic and Environmental Research,2014,19(4):515-522.(in Chinese))Doi:10.3878/j.issn.1006-9585.2014.13020.
[6]胡保昆,窦以文,储伟.北京城区气温变化特征[J].气象科技,2014,42(5):852-855.(HU B K,DOU Y W,CHU W.Characteristics of temperature variation in Beijing urban area[J].Meteorological Science and Technology,2014,42(5):852-855.(in Chinese))
[7]向亮,郝立生,安月改.等.51a河北省降水时空分布及变化特征[J].干旱区地理,2014,37(1):56-65.(XIANG L,HAO L S,AN Y G,et al.Time-Spatial distribution and variational characteristics of rainfall in Hebei province in51years[J].Arid Land Geography,2014,37(1):56-65.(in Chinese))Doi:10.13826/j.cnki.cn65-1103/x.2014.01.008.
[8]芦佳玉,延军平,王鹏涛,等.全球变化背景下陕甘宁地区风速时空变化特征[J].中国沙漠,2017,37(3):554-561.(LU J Y,YAN J P,WANG P T,et,al.Wind speed change characteristics of Shanxi-Gansu-Ningxia Area in 1960-2014[J].Journal of Desert Research,2017,37(3):554-561.(in Chinese))DOI:10.7522/j.issn.1000-694X.2016.00114.
[9]魏凤英.现代气候统计诊断与预测技术(第2版)[M].北京:气象出版社,2007.(WEI F Y.Modern climatic statistical diagnosis and prediction technology(2nd)[M].Beijing:China Meteorological Press,2007.(in Chinese))
[10]彭俊翔,伍永年,胡维平,等.长荡湖近61a降水量演化特征[J].长江流域资源与环境.2016,25(2):292-299.(PENG J X,WU Y N,HU X P,et al.The evolution characteristics of precipitation in the past 61years at the lake Changdanghu[J].Resources and Environment in the Yangtze Basin,2016,25(2):292-299.(in Chinese))DOI:10.11870/cjlyzyyhj201602.015.
[11]胡毅鸿,李景保.1951-2015年洞庭湖区旱涝演变及典型年份旱涝急转特征分析[J].农业工程学报.2017,33(7):107-115.(HU Y H,LI J B.Analysis on evolution of drought-flood and its abrupt alternation in typical year from 1951to 2015in Dongting Lake area[J].Transactions of the Chinese Society of Agricultural Engineering,2017,33(7):107-115.(in Chinese))DOI:10.11975/j.issn.1002-6819.2017.07.014.
[12]赵雪雁,张钦,王亚茹,等.近55a来青藏高原东部气候演变特征[J].干旱区研究,2015,32(6):1088-1096.(ZHAO X Y,ZHANG Q,WANG Y R,et al.Climate evolution characteristics of eastern Tibetan Plateau for the last 55years[J].Arid Zone Research,2015,32(6):1088-1096.(in Chinese))DOI:10.13866/j.azr.2015.06.07.
[13]曹永强,刘佳佳,高璐.辽宁省大雨以上降水日数分布与趋势分析[J].地理科学进展,2015,34(8):1052-1060.(CAO Y J,LIU J J,GAO L.Distribution and trend analysis of heavy precipitation days in Liaoning Province[J].Progress in Geography,2015,34(8):1052-1060.(in Chinese))Doi:10.18306/dlkxjz.2015.08.012.
[14]史佳良,王秀茹,李淑芳,等.近50年来河南省气温和降水时空变化特征分析[J].水土保持研究,2017,24(3):151-156.(SHI J L,WANG X R,LI S F,et al.Variation characteristics of air temperature and precipitation in Henan province in recent 50years[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2017,24(3):151-156.(in Chinese))Doi:10.13869/j.cnki.rswc.2017.03.028.
[15]王理萍,王树仿,张刘东,等.1960-2013年云南省降水时空变化特征分析[J].水电能源科学,2016,34(12):20-24.(WANG L P,WANG S F,ZHANG L D,et al.Spatial-temporal characteristics of precipitation in Yunnan province from 1960to2013[J].Water Resources and Power,2016,34(12):20-24.(in Chinese))
[16]赵东,罗勇,高歌,等.1961年至2007年中国日照的演变及其关键气候特征[J].资源科学,2010,32(4):701-711.(ZHAO D,LUO Y,GAO G,et al.Long-Term changes and essential climatic characteristics of sunshine duration over China during1961-2007[J].Resources Science,2010,32(4):701-711.(in Chinese))
[17]李慧群,付遵涛,闻新宇.等.中国地区日照时数近50年来的变化特征[J].气候与环境研究,2013,18(2):203-209.(LI H Q,FU Z T,WEN X Y,et al.Characteristic analysis of sunshine duration change in China during the last 50years[J].Climatic and Environmental Research,2013,18(2):203-209.(in Chinese))Doi:10.3878/j.issn.1006-9585.2012.11052.
[18]郑小波,罗宇翔,段长春,等.云贵高原近45年来日照及能见度变化及其成因初步分析[J].高原气象,2010,29(4):992-998.(ZHENG X B,LUO Y X,DUAN C C,et al.Change trends and causes in sunshine duration and visibility over Yunnan-Guizhou Plateau in recent 45years[J].Plateau Meteorology,2010,29(4):992-998.(in Chinese))
[19]刘玉英,韦小丽,李宇凡.1961-2012年吉林省日照时数的变化特征及影响因素[J].自然资源学报,2015(8):1367-1377.(LIU Y Y,WEI X L,LI Y F.Variation of sunshine duration and related driving forces in Jilin Province during 1961-2012[J].Journal of Natural Resources,2015(8):1367-1377.(in Chinese))Doi:10.10.11849/zrzyxb.2015.08.011.
[20]王跃思,张军科,王莉莉,等.京津冀区域大气霾污染研究意义、现状及展望[J].地球科学进展,2014,29(3):388-396.(WANG Y S,ZHANG J K,WANG L L,et al.Researching significance,status and expectation of haze in Beijing-Tianjin Hebei region[J].Advance in Earth Science,2014,29(3):388-396.(in Chinese))Doi:10.11867/j.issn.1001-8166.2014.03.0388.
[21]赵普生,徐晓峰,孟伟,等.京津冀区域霾天气特征[J].中国环境科学,2012,32(1):31-36.(ZHAO P S,XU X F,MENG W,et al.Characteristics of hazy days in the region of Beijing,Tianjin,and Hebei[J].China Environmental Science,2012,32(1):31-36.(in Chinese))
[22]范泽孟,岳天祥,陈传法,等.中国气温与降水的时空变化趋势分析[J].地球信息科学学报,2011,13(4):526-533.(FAN Z M,YUE T X,CHEN C F,et al.Spatian change trends of temperature and precipitation in China[J].Journal of Geo-Information Science,2011,13(4):526-533.(in Chinese))Doi:10.3724/SP.J 1047.2011.00526.
[23]阿多,熊凯,赵文吉,等.1960~2013年华北平原气候变化时空特征及其对太阳活动和大气环境变化的响应[J].地理科学,2016,36(10):1555-1564.(A D,XIONG K,ZHAO W J,et al.Temporal trend of climate change and mutation analysis of North China Plain during 1960to 2013[J].Scientia Geographica Sinica,2016,36(10):1555-1564.(in Chinese))Doi:10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2016.10.013.
[24]张一驰,吴凯,于静洁,等.华北地区1951-2009年气温、降水变化特征[J].自然资源学报,2011,26(11):1930-1941.(ZHANG Y C,WU K,YU J J,et al.Characteristics of precipitation and air temperature variation during 1951-2009in North China[J].Journal of Natural Resources,2011,26(11):1930-1941.(in Chinese))