长荡湖近61a降水量演化特征
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摘要
基于王母观站和溧阳站1953~2013a系列年降水量资料,采用Spearman和Mann-Kendall非参数统计检验、连续小波变换等技术手段,分析了61a来长荡湖年降水量的演变特征。结果表明,长荡湖多年平均降水量为1 115.1 mm,年内降水量呈明显的季节性变化;年降水量总体呈减少趋势,但仍以正常年份居多,偏多与偏少年份相当;长荡湖湖区年降水量变化周期为9.5a;年降水量变化不存在突变。研究成果可为长荡湖湖区的洪水控制、水资源利用、水调度方案制订、应对气候变化提供科学依据。
Based on annual precipitation observation data from Wangmuguan and Liyang monitoring stations during the period of 1953 to 2013, the evolution of annual precipitation of Lake Changdanghu in the past 61 years was systematically analyzed by using the methods of Mann-Kendall and Sperman's test, wavelet transform and time series analysis. Results showed that the average annual precipitation is 1115.1 mm in this area. The precipitation presented obviously seasonal dynamics during the whole year. The annual precipitation showed downward trend, and the majority of rainfall occurred in a normal year, the rainy year was nearly the same as the drier year in the last 61 years in Lake Changdanghu. The main period of annual precipitation is 9.5 years at Lake Changdanghu. The conclusion from this paper provided important references for flood control, utilization of water resource, water regulation scheme development and climate change adoption for the Lake Changdanghu.
Based on annual precipitation observation data from Wangmuguan and Liyang monitoring stations during the period of 1953 to 2013, the evolution of annual precipitation of Lake Changdanghu in the past 61 years was systematically analyzed by using the methods of Mann-Kendall and Sperman's test, wavelet transform and time series analysis. Results showed that the average annual precipitation is 1115.1 mm in this area. The precipitation presented obviously seasonal dynamics during the whole year. The annual precipitation showed downward trend, and the majority of rainfall occurred in a normal year, the rainy year was nearly the same as the drier year in the last 61 years in Lake Changdanghu. The main period of annual precipitation is 9.5 years at Lake Changdanghu. The conclusion from this paper provided important references for flood control, utilization of water resource, water regulation scheme development and climate change adoption for the Lake Changdanghu.
引文
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[5]王晓杰.长荡湖水质变化分析及污染控制对策[J].人民长江,200940(9):20-22.[WANG X J.Analysis on water quality variation and countermeasures of pollution control for Changdang Lake[J].Yangtze River,2009,40(9):20-22.]
[6]赵苇航,朱彧,朱亮,等.长荡湖水环境变化趋势及其主要影响因子[J].水环境保护,2014,30(6):48-53.[ZHAO W H,ZHU Y,ZHU L,et al.Change trend of wate environment in Changdang Lake and main impact factors[J].Wate Resources Protection,2014,30(6):48-53.]
[7]李勇,王超,朱亮,等.长荡湖底泥污染特征及水体富营养化状况[J].环境科学与技术,2005,28(2):38-40.[LI Y,WANG C,ZHU L,et al.characteristics of sediment pollution and eutrophication status of Changdang Lake[J].Environmenta Science and Technology,2005,28(2):38-40.]
[8]王菲菲,李小平,陈小华,等.长荡湖近15年营养状态评价及限制因子研究[J].环境科学与技术,2012,35(6Ι):353-357.[WANG F F,LI X P,CHEN X H,et al.A study on the nutrition status evaluation and algal limiting factor in Lake Changdang the las15-years[J].Environmental Science&Technology,2012,35(6I)353-357.]
[9]王文圣,丁晶,李跃清.水文小波分析[M].北京:化学工业出版社2005.
[10]李未,秦伯强.太湖梅梁湾富营养化主要驱动因子的多时间尺度分析[J].湖泊科学,2012,24(6):865-874.[LI W,QIN B Q.Multiple temporal scale analysis of main driving factors of eutrophication in Meiliang Bay,Lake Taihu[J].Journal o Lake Sciences,2012,24(6):865-874.]
[11]魏淑秋.农业气象统计[M].福州:福建科学技术出版社,1985.
[12]王同生.太湖流域防洪与水资源管理[M].北京:中国水利水电出版社,2006.
[13]吴浩云,王银堂,胡庆芳,等.太湖流域61年来降水时空演变规律分析[J].水文,2013,33(2):75-81.[WU H Y,WANG Y T,HU Q F,et al.Tempo-spatial change o precipitation in Taihu Lake Basin during recent 61 years[J].Journal o China Hydrology,2013,33(2):75-81.]
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