基于信息量的长白山地区泥石流易发性评价
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摘要
长白山地区泥石流较发育,选取高程、坡度、坡向、年降水、年蒸发、泥石流点密度、人口密度、构造作用、河流作用、地层岩性、地下水类型、地貌类型、土地利用13个影响因素,以研究区110个泥石流点为样本数据,连续型指标依据各个因素分级状态下泥石流比例曲线和信息量曲线的突变点为等级划分临界值,离散型变量根据已有分类分级,建立了长白山地区泥石流易发性指标评价体系。基于信息量模型和GIS平台的栅格数据,计算各个因素分级状态下的信息量,采用自然断点法将易发性等级分为5级。结果表明:泥石流高易发区主要为地层岩性较差、靠近河流和断层的区域,土地利用类型为农业用地和居住使用地,较高易发区和高易发区占总研究区面积的19%,大部分地区较安全。采用曲线下面积即AUC值作为易发性精度验证结果,AUC值为93%,表明评价结果可靠。
Susceptibility evaluation is conducted at the Changbai Mountain area where debris flows frequently occur. Thirteen influence factors are chosen as the evaluation indices,including the slope height,slope,aspect,annual precipitation,annual evaporation,density of debris flow,population density,tectonism,fluviation,formation lithology,groundwater types,geomorphological types and land use types. The frequency curve of debris flow and the magnitude curve of information are drawn based on 110 debris flows points.Continuous indices classification is based on catastrophe points on the curve and discrete indices classification is based on the existing standards. The grid data model of GIS platform and weight information model are used to obtain the information values of each index. The susceptibility evaluation results show that the high susceptibility areas are characterized by poor tectonism,closing to rivers and tectonic lines,erosion and denudation landforms,and agricultural and residential lands. The AUC value is conducted as the accuracy of the susceptibility evaluation of debris flow. The accuracy is 93%. The total area of higher susceptibility areas and high susceptibility areas accounts for 19% of the study area,and most of the areas are safe.
Susceptibility evaluation is conducted at the Changbai Mountain area where debris flows frequently occur. Thirteen influence factors are chosen as the evaluation indices,including the slope height,slope,aspect,annual precipitation,annual evaporation,density of debris flow,population density,tectonism,fluviation,formation lithology,groundwater types,geomorphological types and land use types. The frequency curve of debris flow and the magnitude curve of information are drawn based on 110 debris flows points.Continuous indices classification is based on catastrophe points on the curve and discrete indices classification is based on the existing standards. The grid data model of GIS platform and weight information model are used to obtain the information values of each index. The susceptibility evaluation results show that the high susceptibility areas are characterized by poor tectonism,closing to rivers and tectonic lines,erosion and denudation landforms,and agricultural and residential lands. The AUC value is conducted as the accuracy of the susceptibility evaluation of debris flow. The accuracy is 93%. The total area of higher susceptibility areas and high susceptibility areas accounts for 19% of the study area,and most of the areas are safe.
引文
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[16]许冲,戴福初,姚鑫,等.GIS支持下基于层次分析法的汶川地震区滑坡易发性评价[J].岩石力学与工程学报,2009(增刊2):3978-3985.[XU C,DAI F C,YAO X,et al.GIS-based landslide susceptibility assessment using analytical hierarchy process in wenchuan earthquake region[J].Chinese Journal of Rock Mechanics and Engineering,2009(Sup 2):3978-3985.(in Chinese)]
[2]倪晓娇,南颖.基于GIS的长白山地区地质灾害风险综合评估[J].自然灾害学报,2014(1):112-120.[NI X J,NAN Y.Comprehensive assessment of geological disasters risk in Changbai Mountain region based on GIS[J].Journal of Natural Disasters,2014(1):112-120.(in Chinese)]
[3]刘国超.物质成份对长白山火山次生泥石流影响范围的分析[D].长春:吉林大学,2013.[LIU G C.Analysis of the influence of material composition on the scope of Changbai mountains volcano secondary debris flow[D].Changchun:Jilin University,2013(in Chinese)]
[4]程英建,石豫川,石胜伟,等.数量化理论在泥石流易发性预测中的应用[J].水文地质工程地质,2015(1):140-145.[CHENG Y J,SHI Y C,SHI S W,et al.Prediction of debris flow occurrence based on the quantification theory[J].Hydrogeology&Engineering Geology,2015(1):140-145(inChinese)]
[5]郭瑞,马富存,郭一兵,等.基于层次分析法的泥石流易发性评价[J].东华理工大学学报(自然科学版),2016(4):347-351.[GUO R,MA F C,GUO Y B,et al.Debris flow evaluation of occurrence easiness based on AHP[J].Journal of East China University of Technology,2016(4):347-351.(in Chinese)]
[6]鲍春,宋丹青.模糊数学在库区泥石流易发性评价中的应用[J].水资源与水工程学报,2015(6):132-136.[BAO C,SONG D Q.Application of fuzzy mathematics in prone evaluation of debris flow of reservoir area[J].Journal of Water Resources&Water Engineering,2015(6):132-136.(in Chinese)]
[7]胡凯衡,崔鹏,韩用顺,等.基于聚类和最大似然法的汶川灾区泥石流滑坡易发性评价[J].中国水土保持科学,2012(1):12-18.[HU K H,CUI P,HAN Y S,et al.Susceptibility mapping of landslides and debris flows in 2008 Wenchuan earthquake by using cluster analysis and maximum likelihood classification methods[J].Science of Soil and Water Conservation,2012(1):12-18.(in Chinese)]
[8]张紫昭,刘军,管伟明.山区公路泥石流易发性评价的Fisher判别分析法[J].辽宁工程技术大学学报(自然科学版),2014(8):1108-1113.[ZHANG Z Z,LIU J,GUAN W M.Fisher discriminant analysis method for susceptibility evaluation of mountainous highway debris flow[J].Journal of Liaoning Technical University(Natural Science),2014(8):1108-1113.(in Chinese)]
[9]王念秦,薛瑶琼,李少兵,等.基于粗糙集理论的泥石流易发性综合评判模型[J].水土保持研究,2014(3):246-250.[WANG N Q,XUE Y Q,LI S B,et al.Debris flow lability comprehensive evaluation model on rough set theory[J].Science of Soil and Water Conservation,2014(3):246-250.(in Chinese)]
[10]方成杰,钱德玲,徐士彬,等.基于联系期望的泥石流易发性评价模型[J].水利水运工程学报,2017(2):1-7.[FANG C J,QIAN D L,XU S B,et al.An assessment model for debris flow liability to occurrence based on connectional expectation[J].Hydeoscience&Engineering,2017(2):1-7.(in Chinese)]
[11]陈剑,黎艳,许冲.金沙江干热河谷区泥石流易发性评价模型及应用[J].山地学报,2016(4):460-467.[CHEN J,LI Y,XU C.Susceptibility assessment model of debris flows in the dry-hot valley of the Jinsha river and its application[J].Mountain Research,2016(4):460-467.(in Chinese)]
[12]焦方谦,赵新生,陈川.证据权模型在泥石流灾害易发性评价中的应用[J].干旱区地理,2013(6):1111-1124.[JIAO F Q,ZHAO X S,CHEN C.Debris flow hazard susceptibility evaluation application with weighted evidences model[J].Arid Land Geography,2013(6):1111-1124.(in Chinese)]
[13]邹强,王青,刘延国.基于GIS与Logistic模型的公路泥石流易发性分析[J].水土保持通报,2014(3):185-189.[ZOU Q,WANG Q,LIU Y G.Evaluation method of debris flow susceptibility using GIS and Logistic model[J].Bulletin of Soil and Water Conservation,2014(3):185-189.(in Chinese)]
[14]王佳佳,殷坤龙,肖莉丽.基于GIS和信息量的滑坡灾害易发性评价——以三峡库区万州区为例[J].岩石力学与工程学报,2014(4):797-808.[WANG J J,YIN K L,XIAO L L.Landslide susceptibility assessment based on GIS and weighted information value:a case study of wanzhou district,three gorges reservoir[J].Chinese Journal of Rock Mechanics and Engineering,2014(4):797-808.(in Chinese)]
[15]刘斌.基于WEBGIS的滑坡灾害空间预测与系统开发研究——以三峡坝区至巴东段为例[D].武汉:中国地质大学,2009.[LIU B.Study on landslide hazard spatial prediction and system development based on WEBGIS——a case study of the Three Gorges dam area to the eastern part of the Yangtze River[D].Wuhan:China University of Geosciences,2009.(in Chinese)]
[16]许冲,戴福初,姚鑫,等.GIS支持下基于层次分析法的汶川地震区滑坡易发性评价[J].岩石力学与工程学报,2009(增刊2):3978-3985.[XU C,DAI F C,YAO X,et al.GIS-based landslide susceptibility assessment using analytical hierarchy process in wenchuan earthquake region[J].Chinese Journal of Rock Mechanics and Engineering,2009(Sup 2):3978-3985.(in Chinese)]