人口老龄化对农村居民消费的影响研究
摘要
基于1980-2012年的时间序列数据,本文运用协整理论的方法,对人口老龄化对农村居民消费的影响进行实证研究。研究结果发现,老年抚养比和少儿抚养比对农村居民消费均具有显著影响,即少儿抚养比的下降促使农村居民消费提升,老年抚养比的上升抑制了农村居民的消费。因此,提高农村居民收入水平,健全保障制度以及关注老年消费市场成为解决农村居民消费低迷的重要途径。
引文
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[17]李响,王凯,吕美晔.人口年龄结构与农村居民消费:理论机理与实证检验[J].江海学刊,2010,(2):93-98.
[18]李文星,徐长生,艾春荣.中国人口年龄结构和居民消费:1989-2004[J].经济研究,2008,(7):118-129.
[2]Leff,N.H..Dependency Rates and Savings Rates[J].American Economic Review,1969,59(5):886-896.
[3]Mason,A..An Extension of the Life-Cycle Model and its Application to Population Growth and Aggregate Saving[R].East-West Population Institute Working Papers 4,Honolulu:East-West Population Institute,1981.
[4]Mason,A..National Saving Rates and Population Growth:A New Model and New Evidence,in D.G.Johnson and R.D.Lee(eds).Population Growth and Economic Development[M].Madison WI:University of Wisconsin Press,1987.
[5]Wilson,S.J..The Savings Rate Debate Does the Dependency Hypothesis Hold for Australia and Canada[J].Australian Economic History Review,2000,(2):199-218.
[6]Loayza,N.,Schmidt,Hebbel,K.,Serven,L..What Drives Private Saving across the World?[J].Review of Economics and Statistics,2000,(2):165-181.
[7]保罗·舒尔茨.人口结构和储蓄:亚洲的经验证据及其对中国的意义[J].经济学季刊,2005,4(4):991-1017.
[8]Demery,D.,Duck,N.W..Savings-Age Profiles in the UK[J].Journal of Population Economics,2006,(5):521-541.
[9]Modigliani,F.,Cao,S.L..The Chinese Saving Puzzle and the Life Cycle Hypothesis[J].Journal of Economic Literature,2004,(42):145-170.
[10]Kraay,A..Household Saving in China[J].World Bank Economic Review,2000,(3):545-570.
[11]Horioka,C.Y.,Wan,J..The Determinants of Household Saving in China:A Dynamic Panel Analysis of Provincial Data[R].NBER Working Papers 12723,2006.
[12]彭秀建.中国人口老龄化的宏观经济后果[J].人口研究,2006,(4):12-22.
[13]谭江蓉,杨云彦.人口流动、老龄化对农村居民消费的影响[J].人口与经济,2012,(6):9-15.
[14]王金营,付秀彬.考虑人口年龄结构变动的中国消费函数计量分析[J].人口研究,2006,(1):29-36.
[15]李春琦,张杰平.中国人口结构变动对农村居民消费的影响研究[J].中国人口科学,2009,(4):14-22.
[16]王森.中国人口老龄化与居民消费之间关系的实证分析———基于1978-2007年的数据[J].西北人口,2010,(1):22-27.
[17]李响,王凯,吕美晔.人口年龄结构与农村居民消费:理论机理与实证检验[J].江海学刊,2010,(2):93-98.
[18]李文星,徐长生,艾春荣.中国人口年龄结构和居民消费:1989-2004[J].经济研究,2008,(7):118-129.