中国城市化、人口老龄化对居民消费的影响
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摘要
通过使用动态面板系统GMM方法进行估计,发现城市化对居民消费具有显著的正向作用,城市化的提高有助于消费的提升;少儿抚养比和老年抚养比对居民消费均具有显著的正向影响;少儿抚养比的降低会抑制消费,而老年抚养比的上升会促进消费,且这种促进作用大于少儿抚养比的抑制作用。
Using the provincial panel data from 1997 to2013,this essay examines the influence of urbanization and population ageing on the residents' consumption. By using dynamic panel system GMM model,it is found that the improvement of urbanization is positively promoting to the residents' consumption. Children's dependency ratio and elderly dependency ratio are both positively promoting to the consumption,and the reduction of children's dependency ratio can suppress the consumption,the rise of elderly dependency ratio can promote consumption which is greater than the inhibitory effect of children's dependency ratio.
Using the provincial panel data from 1997 to2013,this essay examines the influence of urbanization and population ageing on the residents' consumption. By using dynamic panel system GMM model,it is found that the improvement of urbanization is positively promoting to the residents' consumption. Children's dependency ratio and elderly dependency ratio are both positively promoting to the consumption,and the reduction of children's dependency ratio can suppress the consumption,the rise of elderly dependency ratio can promote consumption which is greater than the inhibitory effect of children's dependency ratio.
引文
[1]李林杰,申波,李杨.借助人口城市化促进国内消费需求的思路与对策[J].中国软科学,2007(7):30-40
[2]刘艺荣.加快城市化进程是拉动消费增长的持久动力[J].消费经济,2005(4):31-35
[3]刘艺荣.中国城市化水平与消费增长的实证分析[J].湖南社会科学,2008(2):99-103
[4]于淑波.人口城市化对消费需求的影响[J].经济与管理,2010(10):5-9
[5]辜胜阻,李华易,善策.城镇化是扩大内需实现经济可持续发展的引擎[J].中国人口科学,2010(3):2-10
[6]丛屹,王栋.不完全城市化对我国消费的影响研究[J].华东经济管理,2013(7):34-38
[7]李通屏,程胜,倪琳,钱佳.中国城镇化的消费效应研究[J].中国人口科学,2013(3):19-27
[8]Leff N.H.Dependency Rates and Savings Rates[J].American Economic Review,1969(5):886-896
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[11]Wilson S.J.The Savings Rate Debate Does The Dependency Hypothesis Hold for Australia and Canada[J].Australian Economic History Review,2000(2):199-218
[12]Modigliani F.,Cao Shi Larry.The Chinese Saving Puzzle and the Life Cycle Hypothesis[J].Journal of Economic Literature,2004(42):145-170
[13]彭秀建.中国人口老龄化的宏观经济后果[J].人口研究,2006(4):12-22
[14]谭江蓉,杨云彦.人口流动、老龄化对农村居民消费的影响[J].人口与经济,2012(6):9-15
[15]王金营,付秀彬.考虑人口年龄结构变动的中国消费函数计量分析[J].人口研究,2006(1):29-36
[16]李春琦,张杰平.中国人口结构变动对农村居民消费的影响研究[J].中国人口科学,2009(4):14-22
[17]王森.中国人口老龄化与居民消费之间关系的实证分析——基于1978-2007年的数据[J].西北人口,2010(1):22-27
[18]李响,王凯等.人口年龄结构与农村居民消费:理论机理与实证检验[J].江海学刊,2010(2):93-98
[19]Kraay A.Household Saving in China[J].World Bank Economic Review,2000(3):545-570
[20]Horioka C.Y.,Wan J.The Determinants of Household Saving in China:A Dynamic Panel Analysis of Provincial Data[J].Social Science Electronic Publishing,2007(8):2077–2096
[21]李文星,徐长生,艾春荣.中国人口年龄结构和居民消费:1989-2004[J].经济研究,2008(7):118-129
[2]刘艺荣.加快城市化进程是拉动消费增长的持久动力[J].消费经济,2005(4):31-35
[3]刘艺荣.中国城市化水平与消费增长的实证分析[J].湖南社会科学,2008(2):99-103
[4]于淑波.人口城市化对消费需求的影响[J].经济与管理,2010(10):5-9
[5]辜胜阻,李华易,善策.城镇化是扩大内需实现经济可持续发展的引擎[J].中国人口科学,2010(3):2-10
[6]丛屹,王栋.不完全城市化对我国消费的影响研究[J].华东经济管理,2013(7):34-38
[7]李通屏,程胜,倪琳,钱佳.中国城镇化的消费效应研究[J].中国人口科学,2013(3):19-27
[8]Leff N.H.Dependency Rates and Savings Rates[J].American Economic Review,1969(5):886-896
[9]Mason A.An Extension of The Life 2 Cycle Model and its Application to Population Growth and Aggregate Saving[R].East 2West Population Institute Working Papers 4.Honolulu:East 2West Population Institute,1981
[10]Mason A.National Saving Rates and Population Growth:A New Model and New Evidence,in D.G.Johnson and R.D.Lee(eds)Population Growth and Economic Development[M].Madison WI:University of Wisconsin Press,1987
[11]Wilson S.J.The Savings Rate Debate Does The Dependency Hypothesis Hold for Australia and Canada[J].Australian Economic History Review,2000(2):199-218
[12]Modigliani F.,Cao Shi Larry.The Chinese Saving Puzzle and the Life Cycle Hypothesis[J].Journal of Economic Literature,2004(42):145-170
[13]彭秀建.中国人口老龄化的宏观经济后果[J].人口研究,2006(4):12-22
[14]谭江蓉,杨云彦.人口流动、老龄化对农村居民消费的影响[J].人口与经济,2012(6):9-15
[15]王金营,付秀彬.考虑人口年龄结构变动的中国消费函数计量分析[J].人口研究,2006(1):29-36
[16]李春琦,张杰平.中国人口结构变动对农村居民消费的影响研究[J].中国人口科学,2009(4):14-22
[17]王森.中国人口老龄化与居民消费之间关系的实证分析——基于1978-2007年的数据[J].西北人口,2010(1):22-27
[18]李响,王凯等.人口年龄结构与农村居民消费:理论机理与实证检验[J].江海学刊,2010(2):93-98
[19]Kraay A.Household Saving in China[J].World Bank Economic Review,2000(3):545-570
[20]Horioka C.Y.,Wan J.The Determinants of Household Saving in China:A Dynamic Panel Analysis of Provincial Data[J].Social Science Electronic Publishing,2007(8):2077–2096
[21]李文星,徐长生,艾春荣.中国人口年龄结构和居民消费:1989-2004[J].经济研究,2008(7):118-129