宁夏彭阳水质监测断面的水质评价及预测
|
摘要
基于2011—2015年茹河彭阳水质监测断面的水质数据,采用物元分析法对其断面水质进行评价;建立适用于该监测断面的马尔可夫预测模型对断面水质类别进行预测;同时依据平稳分布对各类水质的重现期作了分析。结果表明:彭阳水质监测断面水质为Ⅲ类;对马尔可夫链预测模型进行验证,满足预测精度;2015年9月和11月的水质类别预测结果均为Ⅲ类,且Ⅲ类水质出现的周期最短,属河流水质常态,其重现期为4.9个月,整体水质较好。
Based on the data of the Pengyang section in the Ruhe River from 2011 to 2015,the water quality was evaluated by using matter-element analysis model. Markov prediction model which was suitable for this section was build to forecast water quality,meanwhile the return period of all levels water quality were analyzed according to stationary distribution. The results indicated that the water quality in the Pengyang section was in level Ⅲ. The Markov chain prediction model was verified to meet the demand of prediction accuracy. The water quality in September and November of 2015 was predicted at level Ⅲ. This level Ⅲ water quality was normal and lasted for a short period. Its return period was 4. 9 months,and the whole water quality was better.
Based on the data of the Pengyang section in the Ruhe River from 2011 to 2015,the water quality was evaluated by using matter-element analysis model. Markov prediction model which was suitable for this section was build to forecast water quality,meanwhile the return period of all levels water quality were analyzed according to stationary distribution. The results indicated that the water quality in the Pengyang section was in level Ⅲ. The Markov chain prediction model was verified to meet the demand of prediction accuracy. The water quality in September and November of 2015 was predicted at level Ⅲ. This level Ⅲ water quality was normal and lasted for a short period. Its return period was 4. 9 months,and the whole water quality was better.
引文
[1]张小君,徐中民,宋晓谕,等.几种水环境质量评价方法在青海湖入湖河流中的应用[J].环境工程,2013,31(1):117-121.
[2]潘炜.基于灰色聚类方法的湖泊营养状态综合评价[J].环境监测管理与技术,2014,26(6):35-38.
[3]HOU W,SUN S H,WANG M Q,et al.Assessing water quality of five typical reservoirs in lower reaches of Yellow River,China:using a water quality index method[J].Ecological Indicators,2016,61(2):309-316.
[4]JHA D K,DEVI M P,VIDYALAKSHMI R,et al.Water quality assessment using water quality index and geographical information system methods in the coastal waters of Andaman Sea,India[J].Marine Pollution Bulletin,2015,100(1):555-561.
[5]李杨,吉龙江,康凤新,等.灰色模型在岩溶地下水水质预测中的应用研究[J].环境监测管理与技术,2016,28(3):20-23.
[6]LIU D J,ZOU Z H.Water quality evaluation based on improved fuzzy matter-element method[J].Journal of Environmental Sciences,2012,24(7):1210-1216.
[7]孙学颖,唐德善,张新娇.改进物元分析模型在北之江流域水质评价中的应用[J].南水北调与水利科技,2014,12(3):55-58.
[8]刘传旺,吴建平,任胜伟,等.基于层次分析法与物元分析法的水安全评价[J].水资源保护,2015,31(3):27-32.
[9]岳遥,李天宏.基于模糊集理论的马尔可夫模型在水质定量预测中的应用[J].应用基础与工程科学学报,2011,19(2):231-242.
[10]蔡文.物元模型及其应用[M].北京:科学技术文献出版社,1994.
[11]GAO H.Evaluation of the strategic tolerance human resource management based on mater-element analysis method[J].Journal of Donghua University(Eng,Ed.),2011,28(5),533-538.
[12]樊引琴,李婳,刘婷婷,等.物元分析法在水质监测断面优化中的应用[J].人民黄河,2012,34(11):82-84.
[13]赵建辉.降雨量预测的马尔可夫链模型[J].河北水利,1994(1):28-29.
[14]张玉芬,朱雅琳.马尔可夫性及其检验方法研究[J].价值工程,2012,31(2):312-313.
[15]张宗国.马尔可夫链预测方法及其应用研究[D].南京:河海大学,2005.
[16]LI D S.The stationary distribution and ergodicity of a stochastic generalized logistic system[J].Statistics and Probability Letters,2013,83(2),580-583.
[2]潘炜.基于灰色聚类方法的湖泊营养状态综合评价[J].环境监测管理与技术,2014,26(6):35-38.
[3]HOU W,SUN S H,WANG M Q,et al.Assessing water quality of five typical reservoirs in lower reaches of Yellow River,China:using a water quality index method[J].Ecological Indicators,2016,61(2):309-316.
[4]JHA D K,DEVI M P,VIDYALAKSHMI R,et al.Water quality assessment using water quality index and geographical information system methods in the coastal waters of Andaman Sea,India[J].Marine Pollution Bulletin,2015,100(1):555-561.
[5]李杨,吉龙江,康凤新,等.灰色模型在岩溶地下水水质预测中的应用研究[J].环境监测管理与技术,2016,28(3):20-23.
[6]LIU D J,ZOU Z H.Water quality evaluation based on improved fuzzy matter-element method[J].Journal of Environmental Sciences,2012,24(7):1210-1216.
[7]孙学颖,唐德善,张新娇.改进物元分析模型在北之江流域水质评价中的应用[J].南水北调与水利科技,2014,12(3):55-58.
[8]刘传旺,吴建平,任胜伟,等.基于层次分析法与物元分析法的水安全评价[J].水资源保护,2015,31(3):27-32.
[9]岳遥,李天宏.基于模糊集理论的马尔可夫模型在水质定量预测中的应用[J].应用基础与工程科学学报,2011,19(2):231-242.
[10]蔡文.物元模型及其应用[M].北京:科学技术文献出版社,1994.
[11]GAO H.Evaluation of the strategic tolerance human resource management based on mater-element analysis method[J].Journal of Donghua University(Eng,Ed.),2011,28(5),533-538.
[12]樊引琴,李婳,刘婷婷,等.物元分析法在水质监测断面优化中的应用[J].人民黄河,2012,34(11):82-84.
[13]赵建辉.降雨量预测的马尔可夫链模型[J].河北水利,1994(1):28-29.
[14]张玉芬,朱雅琳.马尔可夫性及其检验方法研究[J].价值工程,2012,31(2):312-313.
[15]张宗国.马尔可夫链预测方法及其应用研究[D].南京:河海大学,2005.
[16]LI D S.The stationary distribution and ergodicity of a stochastic generalized logistic system[J].Statistics and Probability Letters,2013,83(2),580-583.