台风“鮎鱼”极端降水分析
|
摘要
1617号台风"鮎鱼"的降水异常强大,温州、丽水部分县市的过程雨量和日雨量超过历史极值,灾害严重。利用NCEP 0.5°×0.5°再分析资料、FY-2G卫星资料、多普勒雷达探测资料和自动站加密观测等资料,对其成因展开分析。结果表明:"鮎鱼"东面与强大稳定的副高之间构成东南急流;北面与缓慢东移的华北高压之间构成偏东风急流;南面是与西南季风相连接的西南急流;3支低空急流构建的切变辐合区是水汽辐合和不稳定能量的集合区,也是中尺度对流的强烈发展区,温州、丽水部分县市的极端降水由中尺度对流的持续发生发展引发。低空急流的长时间持续,特别充沛的水汽输送和冷空气的影响是"鮎鱼"极端降水的主要影响机制。冷空气影响期间,降雨回波发展旺盛,结构紧密,回波强度和降水效率等明显强于无冷空气影响时台风本体环流降雨回波。云顶相当黑体亮度温度(TBB)与台风降水有较好的对应关系,有一定预报参考价值。
The precipitation caused by Typhoon Megi is abnormally enormous with the rainfall in part counties in Wenzhou and Lishui breaking the historical records,which caused a severe disaster.Its causes are analyzed by the use of NCEP 0.5°×0.5°reanalysis data,FY-2 Gsatellite data,Doppler radar data,the intensive observation data,and so on.The results show that there were three low jet streams:the southeast jet stream between Megi and subtropical high,the eastward jet stream between Megi and Huabei high,and the south-west jet stream connected with south-west monsoon.The shear and convergence zone consisted of three low jet streams was the area of vapor and instability energy convergence and also the trigger zone of mesoscale convection.The extreme precipitation in Wenzhou and Lishui was triggered by the strong development of continual mesoscale convection.Long-time low-level jet streams,particularly abundant vapor transportation and cold air are the main influencing mechanism of Megi extreme precipitation.During the cold air influencing,the precipitation echo with tight structure developed strongly.The echo intensity and precipitation efficiency were obviously stronger than those of the typhoon circulation echo with no cold air influence.The cloud-top black-body brightness temperature(TBB)has good relationship with typhoon precipitation,which has reference value for operational forecasting.
The precipitation caused by Typhoon Megi is abnormally enormous with the rainfall in part counties in Wenzhou and Lishui breaking the historical records,which caused a severe disaster.Its causes are analyzed by the use of NCEP 0.5°×0.5°reanalysis data,FY-2 Gsatellite data,Doppler radar data,the intensive observation data,and so on.The results show that there were three low jet streams:the southeast jet stream between Megi and subtropical high,the eastward jet stream between Megi and Huabei high,and the south-west jet stream connected with south-west monsoon.The shear and convergence zone consisted of three low jet streams was the area of vapor and instability energy convergence and also the trigger zone of mesoscale convection.The extreme precipitation in Wenzhou and Lishui was triggered by the strong development of continual mesoscale convection.Long-time low-level jet streams,particularly abundant vapor transportation and cold air are the main influencing mechanism of Megi extreme precipitation.During the cold air influencing,the precipitation echo with tight structure developed strongly.The echo intensity and precipitation efficiency were obviously stronger than those of the typhoon circulation echo with no cold air influence.The cloud-top black-body brightness temperature(TBB)has good relationship with typhoon precipitation,which has reference value for operational forecasting.
引文
[1]陈联寿,许映龙.中国台风特大暴雨综述[J].气象与环境科学,2017,40(1):3-10.
[2]侯淑梅,盛春岩,万文龙,等.山东省极端强降水天气概念模型研究[J].大气科学学报,2014,37(2):163-174.
[3]潘婧茹,张雪蓉,马明明,等.2012年“海葵”台风影响江苏的两段大暴雨特征分析[J].气象科学,2016,36(1):102-111.
[4]金巍,曲岩,姚秀萍,等.一次大暴雨过程中低空急流演变与强降水的关系[J].气象,2007,33(12):31-38.
[5]孙建华,齐琳琳,赵思雄.“9608”号台风登陆北上引发北方特大暴雨的中尺度对流系统研究[J].气象学报,2006,64(1):57-72.
[6]端义宏,陈联寿,梁建茵,等.台风登陆前后异常变化的研究进展[J].气象学报,2014,72(5):969-986.
[7]任福民,邱文玉,吴立广,等.我国东南沿海台风极端降水特征及成因初探[C]∥第30届中国气象学会年会论文集,2013.
[8]梁军,陈联寿,张胜军,等.冷空气影响辽东半岛热带气旋降水的数值试验[J].大气科学,2008,32(5):1107-1118.
[9]郭荣芬,肖子牛,鲁亚斌.登陆热带气旋引发云南强降水的环境场特征[J].气象,2013,39(4):418-426.
[10]吴海英,陈海山,曾明剑,等.冷空气对台风“海葵”(1211)倒槽特大暴雨的作用分析[J].热带气象学报,2014,30(5):871-880.
[11]刘建勇,周冠博,顾思南,等.台风菲特暴雨诊断分析[J].气象科技,2014,42(6):1047-1056.
[12]钮学新,杜惠良,刘建勇.0216号台风降水及其影响降水机制的数值模拟试验[J].气象学报,2005,63(1):57-68.
[13]张树民,王坤,孙刚,等.台风尼伯特(1601)残留低压局地大暴雨成因分析[J].气象科技,2018,46(1):139-147.
[14]陈鹏,庞玥,张虹,等.台风与冷空气对重庆“9.17”大暴雨的影响分析[J].暴雨灾害,2017,36(3):227-234.
[15]杨舒楠,陈涛,刘建勇,等.两次台风暴雨冷空气影响对比分析.气象科技,2018,46(2):324-335.
[16]李英,陈联寿,徐祥德.水汽输送影响登陆热带气旋维持和降水的数值试验[J].大气科学,2005,29(1):91-98.
[17]戴竹君,王黎娟,管兆勇,等.登陆热带风暴“Bilis”维持和暴雨增幅与低纬水汽输送的关系及其数值试验[J].热带气象学报,2014,30(2):45-54.
[18]程正泉,陈联寿,李英.登陆台风降水的大尺度环流诊断分析[J].气象学报,2009,67(5):840-850.
[19]余贞寿,陈敏,叶子祥,等.相似路径热带气旋“海棠"(0505)和“碧利斯"(0604)暴雨对比分析[J].热带气象学报,2009,25(1):37-46.
[20]范爱芬,娄小芬,彭霞云.一次副高控制下登陆的台风强降雨过程分析[J].海洋预报,2017,34(4):66-75.
[21]赛瀚,苗俊峰.中国地区低空急流研究进展[J].气象科技,2012,40(5):766-771.
[22]孙淑清,翟国庆.低空急流的不稳定性及其对暴雨的触发作用[J].大气科学,1980,4(4):178-188.
[23]孙继松,雷蕾,于波,等.近10年北京地区极端暴雨事件的基本特征[J].气象学报,2015,73(4):609-623.
[24]喻谦花,郑士林,吴蓁,等.局部大暴雨形成的机理与中尺度分析[J].气象,2016,42(6):686-695.
[25]祁秀香,郑永光,伍志方,等.一次导致大暴雨的中尺度对流系统演变和风场垂直结构特征[J].热带气象学报,2015,31(3):345-354.
[26]梁钰,布亚林,贺哲,等.FY-2C卫星资料在河南一次台风暴雨过程中的应用[C]∥中国气象学会2006年年会论文集:51-55.
[27]谷秀杰,高媛媛,李周.FY-2C卫星资料在暴雨分析中的应用[C]∥中国气象学会2007年年会论文集:1170-1174.
[28]曾明剑,吴海英,王晓峰,等.梅雨期龙卷环境条件与典型龙卷对流风暴结构特征分析[J].气象,2016,42(3):280-293.
[2]侯淑梅,盛春岩,万文龙,等.山东省极端强降水天气概念模型研究[J].大气科学学报,2014,37(2):163-174.
[3]潘婧茹,张雪蓉,马明明,等.2012年“海葵”台风影响江苏的两段大暴雨特征分析[J].气象科学,2016,36(1):102-111.
[4]金巍,曲岩,姚秀萍,等.一次大暴雨过程中低空急流演变与强降水的关系[J].气象,2007,33(12):31-38.
[5]孙建华,齐琳琳,赵思雄.“9608”号台风登陆北上引发北方特大暴雨的中尺度对流系统研究[J].气象学报,2006,64(1):57-72.
[6]端义宏,陈联寿,梁建茵,等.台风登陆前后异常变化的研究进展[J].气象学报,2014,72(5):969-986.
[7]任福民,邱文玉,吴立广,等.我国东南沿海台风极端降水特征及成因初探[C]∥第30届中国气象学会年会论文集,2013.
[8]梁军,陈联寿,张胜军,等.冷空气影响辽东半岛热带气旋降水的数值试验[J].大气科学,2008,32(5):1107-1118.
[9]郭荣芬,肖子牛,鲁亚斌.登陆热带气旋引发云南强降水的环境场特征[J].气象,2013,39(4):418-426.
[10]吴海英,陈海山,曾明剑,等.冷空气对台风“海葵”(1211)倒槽特大暴雨的作用分析[J].热带气象学报,2014,30(5):871-880.
[11]刘建勇,周冠博,顾思南,等.台风菲特暴雨诊断分析[J].气象科技,2014,42(6):1047-1056.
[12]钮学新,杜惠良,刘建勇.0216号台风降水及其影响降水机制的数值模拟试验[J].气象学报,2005,63(1):57-68.
[13]张树民,王坤,孙刚,等.台风尼伯特(1601)残留低压局地大暴雨成因分析[J].气象科技,2018,46(1):139-147.
[14]陈鹏,庞玥,张虹,等.台风与冷空气对重庆“9.17”大暴雨的影响分析[J].暴雨灾害,2017,36(3):227-234.
[15]杨舒楠,陈涛,刘建勇,等.两次台风暴雨冷空气影响对比分析.气象科技,2018,46(2):324-335.
[16]李英,陈联寿,徐祥德.水汽输送影响登陆热带气旋维持和降水的数值试验[J].大气科学,2005,29(1):91-98.
[17]戴竹君,王黎娟,管兆勇,等.登陆热带风暴“Bilis”维持和暴雨增幅与低纬水汽输送的关系及其数值试验[J].热带气象学报,2014,30(2):45-54.
[18]程正泉,陈联寿,李英.登陆台风降水的大尺度环流诊断分析[J].气象学报,2009,67(5):840-850.
[19]余贞寿,陈敏,叶子祥,等.相似路径热带气旋“海棠"(0505)和“碧利斯"(0604)暴雨对比分析[J].热带气象学报,2009,25(1):37-46.
[20]范爱芬,娄小芬,彭霞云.一次副高控制下登陆的台风强降雨过程分析[J].海洋预报,2017,34(4):66-75.
[21]赛瀚,苗俊峰.中国地区低空急流研究进展[J].气象科技,2012,40(5):766-771.
[22]孙淑清,翟国庆.低空急流的不稳定性及其对暴雨的触发作用[J].大气科学,1980,4(4):178-188.
[23]孙继松,雷蕾,于波,等.近10年北京地区极端暴雨事件的基本特征[J].气象学报,2015,73(4):609-623.
[24]喻谦花,郑士林,吴蓁,等.局部大暴雨形成的机理与中尺度分析[J].气象,2016,42(6):686-695.
[25]祁秀香,郑永光,伍志方,等.一次导致大暴雨的中尺度对流系统演变和风场垂直结构特征[J].热带气象学报,2015,31(3):345-354.
[26]梁钰,布亚林,贺哲,等.FY-2C卫星资料在河南一次台风暴雨过程中的应用[C]∥中国气象学会2006年年会论文集:51-55.
[27]谷秀杰,高媛媛,李周.FY-2C卫星资料在暴雨分析中的应用[C]∥中国气象学会2007年年会论文集:1170-1174.
[28]曾明剑,吴海英,王晓峰,等.梅雨期龙卷环境条件与典型龙卷对流风暴结构特征分析[J].气象,2016,42(3):280-293.