基于路径选择的高速公路事故影响范围分析
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摘要
为了在高速公路事故发生后给驾驶人提供及时有效的信息,将事故影响程度和损失降到最小,对高速公路交通事故在无外界干预情况下的影响范围进行了分析研究。首先对Logit路径选择模型和BRT阻抗函数进行改进,同时考虑收费站对路阻函数的影响,采用改进模型对事故点上游的车辆路径重新分配进行研究,用容量限制-多路径交通分配方法对局部路网进行交通流重分配,得到事故条件下各路段流量,并将交通影响评价中判定新建项目区域交通影响大小的方法的思想应用到事故影响范围确定上,给出高速公路交通事故影响范围的思路,根据路段服务水平变化情况,对事故影响范围进行确定。最后以给定网络为依据,对事故发生后路网上出行者的路径选择及事故影响范围进行例证分析。研究结果表明:高速公路上事故的发生会导致临近路网的饱和度上升,但事故对不同路段的影响程度不同,在路径选择基础上,结合路网通行能力,服务水平等数据;根据算例分析可知,该模型可用于事故影响范围的准确告知,且符合实际道路环境情况,根据影响程度分级对高速公路采取合理的管制措施,有利于有效疏散交通,降低事故影响。
To provide drivers with timely and effective information after the occurrence of a expressway accident,and to minimize the impact of and loss resulting from the accident,the scope and extent of the impact caused by a expressway accident without external intervention were analyzed.First,the Logit route selection model and BRT impedance function were improved.Meanwhile,the impact of the toll station on the impedance function was considered.Second,the use of the improved model to redistribute routes of vehicles upstream of the accident point was analyzed.The capacity limitation multiroute traffic distribution method was adopted to redistribute the traffic flow in the local expressway network into the traffic flow of each road section in the case of accident occurrence.Moreover,the method of measuring the impact of the local traffic of newly built projects in traffic impact evaluation was used to determine the impact scope of the accident and to provide innovative ideas to measure the impact scope of expressway accidents.According to changes in the service level of each road section,the impact scope of theaccident was determined.Last,agiven highway network was taken as a case study to analyze the route selection of drivers on this network after an accident and the impact scope of the accident.According to analysis results,the occurrence of the expressway accident increases the saturation level of its adjacent road networks,and the extent of impact of the accident varies in different road sections.Based on the route selection of drivers and combined with data concerning the highway network capacity and service level,the case study results prove that this model can be used to forecast the impact scope of an accident accurately,and the forecast is in accordance with the actual situation of the highway environment.Therefore,taking proper control measures on highways based on the impact extent of an accident can help achieve effective evacuation of traffic and reduce the impact of the accident.
To provide drivers with timely and effective information after the occurrence of a expressway accident,and to minimize the impact of and loss resulting from the accident,the scope and extent of the impact caused by a expressway accident without external intervention were analyzed.First,the Logit route selection model and BRT impedance function were improved.Meanwhile,the impact of the toll station on the impedance function was considered.Second,the use of the improved model to redistribute routes of vehicles upstream of the accident point was analyzed.The capacity limitation multiroute traffic distribution method was adopted to redistribute the traffic flow in the local expressway network into the traffic flow of each road section in the case of accident occurrence.Moreover,the method of measuring the impact of the local traffic of newly built projects in traffic impact evaluation was used to determine the impact scope of the accident and to provide innovative ideas to measure the impact scope of expressway accidents.According to changes in the service level of each road section,the impact scope of theaccident was determined.Last,agiven highway network was taken as a case study to analyze the route selection of drivers on this network after an accident and the impact scope of the accident.According to analysis results,the occurrence of the expressway accident increases the saturation level of its adjacent road networks,and the extent of impact of the accident varies in different road sections.Based on the route selection of drivers and combined with data concerning the highway network capacity and service level,the case study results prove that this model can be used to forecast the impact scope of an accident accurately,and the forecast is in accordance with the actual situation of the highway environment.Therefore,taking proper control measures on highways based on the impact extent of an accident can help achieve effective evacuation of traffic and reduce the impact of the accident.
引文
[1]MORALES J M.Analytical procedures for estimating freeway traffic congestion[J].ITE Journal,1987,57(1):45-49.
[2]NEWELL G F.A simplified theory of kinematic waves in highway traffic,partⅠ:General theory[J].Transportation Research Part B,1993,27(4):281-287.
[3]王建军,李维佳,金书鑫.高速公路分流区事故扩散最早恢复时间敏感性分析[J].中国公路学报,2016,29(9):121-127.WANG Jian-jun,LI Wei-jia,JIN Shu-xin.Applying sensitivity analysis to determination of earliest recovery time after accident in expressway diverge zone[J].China Journal of Highway and Transport,2016,29(9):121-127.
[4]孔惠惠,秦超,李新波,等.交通事故引起的排队长度及消散时间的估算[J].铁路运输与经济,2005,27(5):66-67.KONG Hui-hui,QIN Chao,LI Xin-bo,et al.Estimation of queue length and dispersing time caused by traffic accident[J].Railway Transport and Economy,2005,27(5):66-67.
[5]曹志远,郭忠印,张起森,等.高速公路重大交通事故下信息发布空间范围研究[J].交通科学与工程,2011,27(2):87-90,95.CAO Zhi-yuan,GUO Zhong-yin,ZHANG Qi-sen,et al.Research on spatial extent of information distribution in terrible traffic accident on highway[J].Transportation Science and Engineering,2011,27(2):87-90,95.
[6]余贵珍,刘玉敏,金茂菁,等.基于交通波的高速公路事故的交通影响分析[J].北京航空航天大学学报,2012,38(10):1420-1424.YU Gui-zhen,LIU Yu-min,JIN Mao-jing,et al.Analysis on traffic impact of highway accidents based on traffic wave[J].Journal of Beijing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics,2012,38(10):1420-1424.
[7]王俊骅,赵新勇,丛浩哲.高速公路网突发交通事件时空影响预测模型[J].交通信息与安全,2013,1(31):77-82.WANG Jun-hua,ZHAO Xin-yong,CONG Hao-zhe.Prediction model of time-space impact of emergency traffic accident in expressway network[J].Traffic Information and Safety,2013,1(31):77-82.
[8]王建军,邓亚娟.路网环境下高速公路交通事故影响传播分析与控制[M].北京:科学出版社,2010.WANG Jian-jun,DENG Ya-juan.Traffic accident impact analysis and control of expressway under road network[M].Beijing:Science Press,2010.
[9]闫晟煜,肖润谋.基于收费数据的高速公路事故影响区域判定[J].公路交通科技,2013,30(8):134-139.YAN Sheng-yu,XIAO Run-mou.Decision of affected area of freeway accidents based on toll collection date[J].Journal of Highway and Transportation Research and Development,2013,30(8):134-139.
[10]钱刚,蒋珉,柴干.高速公路事故影响范围模型[J].计算机技术与发展,2014,24(6):83-91.QIAN Gang,JIANG Min,CHAI Gan.Study on expressway traffic accident influence scope[J].Computer Technology and Development,2014,24(6):83-91.
[11]金书鑫,王建军,徐嫚谷.区域高速路网交通事故影响区划分及交通诱导[J].长安大学学报:自然科学版,2017,37(2):89-98.JIN Shu-xin,WANG Jian-jun,XU Man-gu.Traffic accident affected zone division and traffic guidance under regional highway network[J].Journal of Chang'an University:Natural Science Edition,2017,37(2):89-98.
[12]郑黎黎.高速公路交通事件影响范围的模糊预测[J].数学的实践与认识,2009,39(1):72-77.ZHENG Li-li.Fuzzy forecast of incident incidence on freeway[J].Mathematics in Practice and Theory,2009,39(1):72-77.
[13]胡晓健.道路交通意外事件影响范围确定方法[J].东南大学学报:自然科学版,2007,37(5):934-939.HU Xiao-jian.Determination impact area of traffic incident[J].Journal of Southeast University:Natural Science Edition,2007,37(5):934-939.
[14]姚丽亚,魏连雨,李春宝.区域路网中交通事件影响范围及诱导分析[J].河北工业大学学报,2005,34(4):25-28.YAO Li-ya,WEI Lian-yu,LI Chun-bao.Study on the area influenced and guidance system when accident happen in road net[J].Journal of Hebei University of Technology,2005,34(4):25-28.
[15]张敖木翰.突发事件下非重复性交通拥堵传播规律与控制策略研究[D].北京:北京交通大学,2012.ZHANG Ao-muhan.Research on Studies on propagation and control strategy of incident-based non-recurrent traffic congestion propagation[D].Beijing:Beijing Jiaotong University,2012.
[16]贺琳,周代平.基于累积自学习机制的驾驶员路径选择博弈模型[J].交通运输研究,2015,1(4):49-55.HE Lin,ZHOU Dai-ping.Game theory model of driver's route selection based on cumulative selflearning mechanism[J].Transport Research,2015,1(4):49-55.
[17]龙雪琴,王建军,关宏志.交通事故下出行者非理性出行行为研究[J].交通运输系统工程与信息,2015,5(2):156-162.LONG Xue-qin,WANG Jian-jun,GUAN Hong-zhi.Bounded-rational travel behavior under traffic incident[J].Journal of Transportation Systems Engineering and Information Technology,2015,5(2):156-162.
[18]陈义华,何仁斌,王伟.改进的Logit随机路径选择模型及其算法实现[J].重庆大学学报:自然科学版,2002,25(12):95-96.CHEN Yi-hua,HE Ren-bin,WANG Wei.Amelioration of the Logit model and the solution[J].Journal of Chongqing University:Natural Science Edition,2002,25(12):95-96.
[19]周和平,晏克非,胡列格.基于随机模拟的遗传算法在OD反推中的应用研究[J].系统工程,2003,21(4):114-119.ZHOU He-ping,YAN Ke-fei,HU Lie-ge.Application of a genetic algorithm based on stochastic simulation for estimating origin-destinationmatrices[J].System Engineering,2003,21(4):114-119.
[20]王文静,敬明,刘冬梅,等.基于Logit模型和BPR阻抗函数的容量限制-多路径交通分配研究[J].公路交通科技,2012,29(增):81-85,134.WANG Wen-jing,JING Ming,LIU Dong-mei,et al.Research on the capacity limitation and multi-path traffic distribution based on Logit model and BPR impedance function[J].Journal of Highway and Transportation Research and Development,2012,29(S):81-85,134.
[21]刘宁,赵胜川,何南.基于BPR函数的路阻函数研究[J].武汉理工大学学报:交通科学与工程版,2013,37(3):545-548.LIU Ning,ZHAO Sheng-chuan,HE Nan.Research on the road impedance function based on BPR function[J].Journal of Wuhan University of Technology:Traffic Science and Engineering Edition,2013,37(3):545-548.
[22]TVERSKY A,KAHNEMAN D.Advances in prospect theory:Cumulative representation of uncertainty[J].Journal of Risk and Uncertainty,1992,5(4):297-323.
[23]王炜.公路交通流车速-流量实用关系模型[J].东南大学学报:自然科学版,2003,33(4):487-491.WANG Wei.Practical speed-flow relationship model of highway traffic-flow[J].Journal of Southeast University:Natural Science Edition,2003,33(4):487-491.
[24]王炜.交通规划[M].北京:人民交通出版社,2008.WANG Wei.Traffic Planning[M].Beijing:China Communications Press,2008.
[25]CJJ/T 141—2010,建设项目交通影响评价技术标准[S].CJJ/T 141—2010,Technical standard of traffic impact assessment of construction projects[S].
[2]NEWELL G F.A simplified theory of kinematic waves in highway traffic,partⅠ:General theory[J].Transportation Research Part B,1993,27(4):281-287.
[3]王建军,李维佳,金书鑫.高速公路分流区事故扩散最早恢复时间敏感性分析[J].中国公路学报,2016,29(9):121-127.WANG Jian-jun,LI Wei-jia,JIN Shu-xin.Applying sensitivity analysis to determination of earliest recovery time after accident in expressway diverge zone[J].China Journal of Highway and Transport,2016,29(9):121-127.
[4]孔惠惠,秦超,李新波,等.交通事故引起的排队长度及消散时间的估算[J].铁路运输与经济,2005,27(5):66-67.KONG Hui-hui,QIN Chao,LI Xin-bo,et al.Estimation of queue length and dispersing time caused by traffic accident[J].Railway Transport and Economy,2005,27(5):66-67.
[5]曹志远,郭忠印,张起森,等.高速公路重大交通事故下信息发布空间范围研究[J].交通科学与工程,2011,27(2):87-90,95.CAO Zhi-yuan,GUO Zhong-yin,ZHANG Qi-sen,et al.Research on spatial extent of information distribution in terrible traffic accident on highway[J].Transportation Science and Engineering,2011,27(2):87-90,95.
[6]余贵珍,刘玉敏,金茂菁,等.基于交通波的高速公路事故的交通影响分析[J].北京航空航天大学学报,2012,38(10):1420-1424.YU Gui-zhen,LIU Yu-min,JIN Mao-jing,et al.Analysis on traffic impact of highway accidents based on traffic wave[J].Journal of Beijing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics,2012,38(10):1420-1424.
[7]王俊骅,赵新勇,丛浩哲.高速公路网突发交通事件时空影响预测模型[J].交通信息与安全,2013,1(31):77-82.WANG Jun-hua,ZHAO Xin-yong,CONG Hao-zhe.Prediction model of time-space impact of emergency traffic accident in expressway network[J].Traffic Information and Safety,2013,1(31):77-82.
[8]王建军,邓亚娟.路网环境下高速公路交通事故影响传播分析与控制[M].北京:科学出版社,2010.WANG Jian-jun,DENG Ya-juan.Traffic accident impact analysis and control of expressway under road network[M].Beijing:Science Press,2010.
[9]闫晟煜,肖润谋.基于收费数据的高速公路事故影响区域判定[J].公路交通科技,2013,30(8):134-139.YAN Sheng-yu,XIAO Run-mou.Decision of affected area of freeway accidents based on toll collection date[J].Journal of Highway and Transportation Research and Development,2013,30(8):134-139.
[10]钱刚,蒋珉,柴干.高速公路事故影响范围模型[J].计算机技术与发展,2014,24(6):83-91.QIAN Gang,JIANG Min,CHAI Gan.Study on expressway traffic accident influence scope[J].Computer Technology and Development,2014,24(6):83-91.
[11]金书鑫,王建军,徐嫚谷.区域高速路网交通事故影响区划分及交通诱导[J].长安大学学报:自然科学版,2017,37(2):89-98.JIN Shu-xin,WANG Jian-jun,XU Man-gu.Traffic accident affected zone division and traffic guidance under regional highway network[J].Journal of Chang'an University:Natural Science Edition,2017,37(2):89-98.
[12]郑黎黎.高速公路交通事件影响范围的模糊预测[J].数学的实践与认识,2009,39(1):72-77.ZHENG Li-li.Fuzzy forecast of incident incidence on freeway[J].Mathematics in Practice and Theory,2009,39(1):72-77.
[13]胡晓健.道路交通意外事件影响范围确定方法[J].东南大学学报:自然科学版,2007,37(5):934-939.HU Xiao-jian.Determination impact area of traffic incident[J].Journal of Southeast University:Natural Science Edition,2007,37(5):934-939.
[14]姚丽亚,魏连雨,李春宝.区域路网中交通事件影响范围及诱导分析[J].河北工业大学学报,2005,34(4):25-28.YAO Li-ya,WEI Lian-yu,LI Chun-bao.Study on the area influenced and guidance system when accident happen in road net[J].Journal of Hebei University of Technology,2005,34(4):25-28.
[15]张敖木翰.突发事件下非重复性交通拥堵传播规律与控制策略研究[D].北京:北京交通大学,2012.ZHANG Ao-muhan.Research on Studies on propagation and control strategy of incident-based non-recurrent traffic congestion propagation[D].Beijing:Beijing Jiaotong University,2012.
[16]贺琳,周代平.基于累积自学习机制的驾驶员路径选择博弈模型[J].交通运输研究,2015,1(4):49-55.HE Lin,ZHOU Dai-ping.Game theory model of driver's route selection based on cumulative selflearning mechanism[J].Transport Research,2015,1(4):49-55.
[17]龙雪琴,王建军,关宏志.交通事故下出行者非理性出行行为研究[J].交通运输系统工程与信息,2015,5(2):156-162.LONG Xue-qin,WANG Jian-jun,GUAN Hong-zhi.Bounded-rational travel behavior under traffic incident[J].Journal of Transportation Systems Engineering and Information Technology,2015,5(2):156-162.
[18]陈义华,何仁斌,王伟.改进的Logit随机路径选择模型及其算法实现[J].重庆大学学报:自然科学版,2002,25(12):95-96.CHEN Yi-hua,HE Ren-bin,WANG Wei.Amelioration of the Logit model and the solution[J].Journal of Chongqing University:Natural Science Edition,2002,25(12):95-96.
[19]周和平,晏克非,胡列格.基于随机模拟的遗传算法在OD反推中的应用研究[J].系统工程,2003,21(4):114-119.ZHOU He-ping,YAN Ke-fei,HU Lie-ge.Application of a genetic algorithm based on stochastic simulation for estimating origin-destinationmatrices[J].System Engineering,2003,21(4):114-119.
[20]王文静,敬明,刘冬梅,等.基于Logit模型和BPR阻抗函数的容量限制-多路径交通分配研究[J].公路交通科技,2012,29(增):81-85,134.WANG Wen-jing,JING Ming,LIU Dong-mei,et al.Research on the capacity limitation and multi-path traffic distribution based on Logit model and BPR impedance function[J].Journal of Highway and Transportation Research and Development,2012,29(S):81-85,134.
[21]刘宁,赵胜川,何南.基于BPR函数的路阻函数研究[J].武汉理工大学学报:交通科学与工程版,2013,37(3):545-548.LIU Ning,ZHAO Sheng-chuan,HE Nan.Research on the road impedance function based on BPR function[J].Journal of Wuhan University of Technology:Traffic Science and Engineering Edition,2013,37(3):545-548.
[22]TVERSKY A,KAHNEMAN D.Advances in prospect theory:Cumulative representation of uncertainty[J].Journal of Risk and Uncertainty,1992,5(4):297-323.
[23]王炜.公路交通流车速-流量实用关系模型[J].东南大学学报:自然科学版,2003,33(4):487-491.WANG Wei.Practical speed-flow relationship model of highway traffic-flow[J].Journal of Southeast University:Natural Science Edition,2003,33(4):487-491.
[24]王炜.交通规划[M].北京:人民交通出版社,2008.WANG Wei.Traffic Planning[M].Beijing:China Communications Press,2008.
[25]CJJ/T 141—2010,建设项目交通影响评价技术标准[S].CJJ/T 141—2010,Technical standard of traffic impact assessment of construction projects[S].