基于径流和潮汐的长江口盐水入侵统计预测研究
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摘要
根据2008年1月—2010年4月长江口主要盐度测点的最新资料,讨论枯季北支盐水倒灌过程中,北支青龙港盐度对于南支主要测站盐度变化的时间和强度响应,通过大量的数据试验,建立盐度、径流和潮差三者之间的多元回归关系,得到青龙港盐度统计预测模型,通过定量化青龙港日特征盐度的预报,可以较好地预测南支受到盐水入侵影响的时间和强度,为预防长江河口盐水入侵灾害起到一定的警示作用。该统计模型在长江口盐水入侵后报(2009年10月到2010年4月)以及预报(2011年上半年)工作中结果均良好,为陈行、宝钢水库等水源地的安全供水进行合理调度、避咸蓄淡等工作具有一定的指导意义。
Based on the salinity data in Changjiang estuary during the flow backward process of saline water from north branch in dry sea from Jan 2008 to Apr 2010, the relationship between salinity at Qinglong Port station located at the north branch and strength variation of observed salinity at south branch is discussed. According to these data, a statistical prediction model of salinity at Qinglong Port is conducted through the multiple regression relationship of salinity, runoff and tidal range. The results show that the simulated data are consistent with the observed data and this model can well predict the strength of saline water spilling over from the North Branch to the South Branch. Besides, the model is well applied in hind forecasting of salt-water intrusion from Oct. 2009 to Apr. 2010 and forecasting of salt-water intrusion inform Jan. to May in 2011.
Based on the salinity data in Changjiang estuary during the flow backward process of saline water from north branch in dry sea from Jan 2008 to Apr 2010, the relationship between salinity at Qinglong Port station located at the north branch and strength variation of observed salinity at south branch is discussed. According to these data, a statistical prediction model of salinity at Qinglong Port is conducted through the multiple regression relationship of salinity, runoff and tidal range. The results show that the simulated data are consistent with the observed data and this model can well predict the strength of saline water spilling over from the North Branch to the South Branch. Besides, the model is well applied in hind forecasting of salt-water intrusion from Oct. 2009 to Apr. 2010 and forecasting of salt-water intrusion inform Jan. to May in 2011.
引文
[1]顾玉亮,吴守培,乐勤.北支盐水入侵对长江口水源地影响研究[J].人民长江,2003,34(4):1-3.
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[7]肖成猷,沈焕庭.长江河口盐水入侵影响因子分析[J].华东师范大学学报,1998,3:74-80.
[8]顾玉亮,乐勤.长江口陈行水源地盐水入侵分析及预报[J].城市给排水,2004,18(2):19-20.
[2]贺松林,丁平兴,孔亚珍.长江口南支河段枯季盐度变异与北支咸水倒灌[J].自然科学进展,2006,16(5):585-587.
[3]沈焕庭,茅志昌,朱建荣.长江河口盐水入侵[M].北京:海洋出版社,2003.
[4]吴辉.长江河口盐水入侵研究——北支倒灌、深水航道和冬季季风的影响[D].上海:华东师范大学,2006.
[5]吴辉,朱建荣.长江河口北支倒灌盐水输送机制分析[J].海洋学报,2007,29(1):17-26.
[6]Wu H,Zhu J R.Advection scheme with 3rd high-order spatial interpolation at the middle temporal level and its application to saltwater intrusion in the Changjiang Estuary[J].Ocean Modelling,2010,33:33-51.
[7]肖成猷,沈焕庭.长江河口盐水入侵影响因子分析[J].华东师范大学学报,1998,3:74-80.
[8]顾玉亮,乐勤.长江口陈行水源地盐水入侵分析及预报[J].城市给排水,2004,18(2):19-20.