基于CMIP5的中国区域气溶胶变化及其对降水的影响
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摘要
基于第5次国际耦合模式比较计划(CMIP5)提供的气溶胶光学厚度(AOD)数据和气溶胶单因子历史试验降水数据,采用线性趋势分析、相关分析、经验正交分解(EOF)方法,从时间和空间维度上分析了自工业革命以来中国AOD的变化及其对降水的影响。1860—2000年,中国区域的AOD整体呈显著增加的趋势(P <0. 001),AOD的增加趋势以胡焕庸线为界呈现出"东高西低"的空间分布格局,并在1945年以后AOD的增加趋势〔0. 380 7·(100a)~(-1)〕显著大于1945年以前的趋势〔0. 029 0·(100a)~(-1)〕。在气溶胶单因子驱动试验中,中国有89. 1%区域的降水呈显著减少的趋势(P <0. 001),其中东南部、四川盆地以及青藏高原东南部是降水减少最明显的区域,西北地区降水减少趋势较弱,并在1962年以后降水的减少趋势〔118. 04 mm·(100a)~(-1)〕显著大于1962年以前的趋势〔26. 67 mm·(100a)~(-1)〕。气溶胶主要通过抑制弱降水显著降低了降水事件发生的频率与降水强度,降低速率分别为3. 160 d·(100a)~(-1)、0. 162 4 mm·d~(-1)·(100a)~(-1)。研究工业革命以来气溶胶对降水的气候效应,为更好的应对区域气候变化问题提供科学依据。
Aerosol plays an important role in the physical and chemical processes in the atmosphere. As more and more aerosols are discharged into the atmosphere due to the enhancement of human activities,the climate problems caused by aerosol emissions have also attracted wide attention. The purposes of this study were to analyze the change of aerosol optical thickness (AOD) and its effects on precipitation by applying the linear trend analysis,correlation analysis and empirical orthogonal function (EOF). The spatiotemporal variation of aerosol and its effects on precipitation since the industrial revolution in China was also approached based on the multi-mode experimental data provided by the Phase Five of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). The result showed that the variation of AOD in China was in an increase trend from 1860 to 2000 (P < 0. 001),the increase trend was more significant in the area east of the"Hu's Line"than that in the area west of it and after 1945. The increase rate after 1945〔0. 380 7· (100a)~(-1)〕was significantly higher than that before 1945〔0. 029 0· (100a)~(-1)〕. In the experiments in which the aerosol change was considered only,as the aerosol emissions were increased,precipitation was obviously decreased in 89. 1% area of China (P < 0. 001). Precipitation was reduced predominantly in most of the southeast China,Sichuan Basin and southeast of Qinghai-Tibet Plateau,while the trend of precipitation reduction in northwest China was moderate. The decrease trend of precipitation was more significant after 1962 than that before it. The decrease rates were 118. 04 mm· (100a)~(-1) in period after 1962 and 26. 67 mm· (100a)~(-1) in period before 1962. The increase of aerosol emission served a role in the lessening of rainfall events' frequency and precipitation intensity by inhibiting the light precipitation,and their reduction rates were 3. 16 d· (100a)~(-1),0. 162 4 mm·d~(-1)· (100a)~(-1),respectively. It provides an important scientific basis to study the climatic effects of AOD's change on precipitation since the industrial revolution for better response to regional climate change in the future.
Aerosol plays an important role in the physical and chemical processes in the atmosphere. As more and more aerosols are discharged into the atmosphere due to the enhancement of human activities,the climate problems caused by aerosol emissions have also attracted wide attention. The purposes of this study were to analyze the change of aerosol optical thickness (AOD) and its effects on precipitation by applying the linear trend analysis,correlation analysis and empirical orthogonal function (EOF). The spatiotemporal variation of aerosol and its effects on precipitation since the industrial revolution in China was also approached based on the multi-mode experimental data provided by the Phase Five of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). The result showed that the variation of AOD in China was in an increase trend from 1860 to 2000 (P < 0. 001),the increase trend was more significant in the area east of the"Hu's Line"than that in the area west of it and after 1945. The increase rate after 1945〔0. 380 7· (100a)~(-1)〕was significantly higher than that before 1945〔0. 029 0· (100a)~(-1)〕. In the experiments in which the aerosol change was considered only,as the aerosol emissions were increased,precipitation was obviously decreased in 89. 1% area of China (P < 0. 001). Precipitation was reduced predominantly in most of the southeast China,Sichuan Basin and southeast of Qinghai-Tibet Plateau,while the trend of precipitation reduction in northwest China was moderate. The decrease trend of precipitation was more significant after 1962 than that before it. The decrease rates were 118. 04 mm· (100a)~(-1) in period after 1962 and 26. 67 mm· (100a)~(-1) in period before 1962. The increase of aerosol emission served a role in the lessening of rainfall events' frequency and precipitation intensity by inhibiting the light precipitation,and their reduction rates were 3. 16 d· (100a)~(-1),0. 162 4 mm·d~(-1)· (100a)~(-1),respectively. It provides an important scientific basis to study the climatic effects of AOD's change on precipitation since the industrial revolution for better response to regional climate change in the future.
引文
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[9]Liu H N,Zhang L,Wu J.A modeling study of the climate effects of sulfate and carbonaceous aerosols over China[J].Advances in Atmospheric Sciences,2010,27(6):1 276-1 288.
[10]张喆,丁建丽,王瑾杰,等.新疆干旱区气溶胶间接效应区域性分析[J].中国环境科学,2016,36(12):3 521-3 530.[Zhang Zhe,Ding Jianli,Wang Jinjie,et al.Regional analysis of aerosol indirect effects in Xinjiang region[J].China Environmental Science,2016,36(12):3 521-3 530.]
[11]李深林,陈晓宏,赖成光,等.珠江三角洲地区近30年降雨变化趋势及其与气溶胶的关系[J].水文,2016,36(4):31-36.[Li Shenlin,Chen Xiaohong,Lai Chengguang,et al.Precipitation change trend in pearl river delta area and relation with aerosol from1980 to 2010[J].Journal of China Hydrology,2016,36(4):31-36.]
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[14]段婧,毛节泰.华北地区气溶胶对区域降水的影响[J].科学通报,2008,53(23):2 947-2 955.[Duan Jing,Mao Jietai.Effect of aerosol to the regional precipitation in North China[J].Chinese Science Bulletin,2008,53(23):2 947-2 955.]
[15]陈晓晨,徐影,许崇海,等.CMIP5全球气候模式对中国地区降水模拟能力的评估[J].气候变化研究进展,2014,10(3):217-225.[Chen Xiaochen,Xu Ying,Xu Chonghai,et al.Assessment of precipitation simulations in China by CMIP5 Multi-models[J].Climate Change Research,2014,10(3):217-225.]
[16]Pierce D W,Barnett T P,Santer B D,et al.Selecting global climate models for regional climate change studies[J].Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences,2009,106(21):8 441-8 446.
[17]Chen W,Jiang Z,Li L.Probabilistic projections of climate change over China under the SRES A1B Scenario Using 28 AOGCMs[J].Journal of Climate,2011,24(17):4 741-47 56.
[18]魏凤英.现代气候统计诊断与预测技术[M].北京:气象出版社,2007.[Wei Fengying.Modern Climate Statistical Diagnosis and Prediction Technology[M].Beijing:China Meteorological Press,2007.]
[19]陈晓燕.中国北方极端降水事件特征及成因研究[D].兰州:兰州大学,2012.[Chen Xiaoyan.Studies on the Characteristics and Formative Causes of Extreme Precipitation Events in the Northern China[D].Lanzhou:Lanzhou University,2012.]
[20]秦世广,石广玉,陈林,等.利用地面水平能见度估算并分析中国地区气溶胶光学厚度长期变化特征[J].大气科学,2010,34(2):449-456.[Qin Shiguang,Shi Guangyu,Chen Lin,et al.Long-term variation of aerosol optical depth in China based on meteorological horizontal visibility observations[J].Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences,2010,34(2):449-456.]
[21]罗云峰,吕达仁,李维亮,等.近30年来中国地区大气气溶胶光学厚度的变化特征[J].科学通报,2000,45(5):549-554.[Luo Yunfeng,LüDaren,Li Weiliang,et al.Characteristics of atmospheric aerosol optical depth variation over China in recent 30years[J].Chinese Science Bulletin,2000,45(5):549-554.]
[22]宿兴涛,许丽人,魏强,等.东亚地区沙尘气溶胶对降水的影响研究[J].高原气象,2016,35(1):211-219.[Su Xingtao,Xu Liren,Wei Qiang,et al.Study of impacts of dust aerosol on precipitation over East Asia[J].Plateau Meteorology,2016,35(1):211-219.]
[23]岳治国,刘晓东,梁谷.气溶胶对北京地区不同类型云降水影响的数值模拟[J].高原气象,2011,30(5):1 356-1 367.[Yue Zhiguo,Liu Xiaodong,Liang Gu.Numerical simulation of influence of aerosols on different cloud precipitation types in Beijing area[J].Plateau Meteorology,2011,30(5):1 356-1 367.]
[24]高艳春,吴涧.气溶胶影响中国东部微量降水的初步分析[J].中国科学院大学学报,2014,31(3):314-321.[Gao Yanchun,Wu Jian.Preliminary analysis of effects of aerosol on slight rain reduction in Eastern China[J].Journal of University of Chinese A-cademy of Sciences,2014,31(3):314-321.]
[25]Qian Y,Gong D,Fan J,et al.Heavy pollution suppresses light rain in China:Observations and modeling[J].Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres,2009,114(D7):D00k02.
[26]王健颖,郑小波,赵天良,等.四川盆地气溶胶变化对弱降水的影响:基于干能见度的气候分析[J].生态环境学报,2016,25(4):621-628.[Wang Jianying,Zheng Xiaobo,Zhao Tianliang,et al.The effects of aerosol variation on light rain over the Sichuan Basin:Base on dry visibility[J].Ecology and Environmental Sciences,2016,25(4):621-628.]
[27]王晖,隆霄,马旭林,等.近50 a中国西北地区东部降水特征[J].干旱区研究,2013,30(4):712-718.[Wang Hui,Long Xiao,Ma Xulin,et al.Precipitation in the eastern part of Northwest China in recent 50 years[J].Arid Zone Research,2013,30(4):712-718.]
[28]闵屾,钱永甫.我国近40年各类降水事件的变化趋势[J].中山大学学报,2008,47(3):105-111.[Min Shen,Qian Yongfu.Trends in all kinds of precipitation events in China over the past 40years[J].Acta Scientiarum Naturalium Universitatis Sunyatseni,2008,47(3):105-111.]
[2]吕萍,黄建平,董志宝.黑碳和有机碳气溶胶对中国气候影响的模拟[C]//第二十六届中国气象学会年会大气成分与天气气候及环境变化分会场论文集.2009:8.[LüPing,Huang Jianping,Dong Zhibao.Numerical simulations of effect of black carbon and organic carbon aerosols on regional climate in china[C]//Thesis Collection of the 26th China Meteorological Society and Weather,Climate and Environmental Change Branch.2009:8.]
[3]杨冬冬.全球和中国地区PM2.5时空变化的模拟研究[D].南京:南京信息工程大学,2016.[Yang Dongdong.Simulation of Distribution of Temporal and Spatial Variation of PM2.5over China and the Globe[D].Nanjing:Nanjing University of Information Science&Technology,2016.]
[4]赖鑫,杨复沫,贺克斌.大气气溶胶对天气与气候的影响[J].三峡生态环境监测,2016,1(1):2-8.[Lai Xin,Yang Fumo,He Kebin.The impacts of atmospheric aerosols on weather and climate[J].Ecology and Environmental Monitoring of Three Gorges,2016,1(1):2-8.]
[5]Twomey S.The influence of pollution on the shortwave albedo of clouds[J].Jatmossci,1977,34(7):1 149-1 154.
[6]Albrecht B A.Aerosols,cloud microphysics,and fractional cloudiness[J].Science,1989,245(4 923):1 227-1 230.
[7]Zhao C,Tie X,Lin Y.A possible positive feedback of reduction of precipitation and increase in aerosols over eastern central China[J].Geophysical Research Letters,2006,33(11):229-239.
[8]吉振明,高学杰,张冬峰,等.亚洲地区气溶胶及其对中国区域气候影响的数值模拟[J].大气科学,2010,34(2):262-274.[Ji Zhenming,Gao Xuejie,Zhang Dongfeng,et al.Simulation of the aerosols over Asia and its climate effect on China[J].Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences,2010,34(2):262-274.]
[9]Liu H N,Zhang L,Wu J.A modeling study of the climate effects of sulfate and carbonaceous aerosols over China[J].Advances in Atmospheric Sciences,2010,27(6):1 276-1 288.
[10]张喆,丁建丽,王瑾杰,等.新疆干旱区气溶胶间接效应区域性分析[J].中国环境科学,2016,36(12):3 521-3 530.[Zhang Zhe,Ding Jianli,Wang Jinjie,et al.Regional analysis of aerosol indirect effects in Xinjiang region[J].China Environmental Science,2016,36(12):3 521-3 530.]
[11]李深林,陈晓宏,赖成光,等.珠江三角洲地区近30年降雨变化趋势及其与气溶胶的关系[J].水文,2016,36(4):31-36.[Li Shenlin,Chen Xiaohong,Lai Chengguang,et al.Precipitation change trend in pearl river delta area and relation with aerosol from1980 to 2010[J].Journal of China Hydrology,2016,36(4):31-36.]
[12]江琪,银燕,单云鹏,等.人为气溶胶对地形云降水的影响:以黄山地区为例[J].大气科学学报,2014,37(4):405-413.[Jiang Qi,Yin Yan,Shan Yunpeng,et al.The effect of artificial aerosols on orographic precipitation:A case study over the Yellow Mountain[J].Transactions of Atmospheric Sciences,2014,37(4):405-413.]
[13]陈思宇,黄建平,付强,等.气溶胶对我国中东部地区秋季降水的影响[J].热带气象学报,2012,28(3):339-347.[Chen Siyu,Huang Jianping,Fu Qiang,et al.Effects of aerosols on autumn precipitation over Mid-eastern China[J].Journal of Tropical Meteorology,2012,28(3):339-347.]
[14]段婧,毛节泰.华北地区气溶胶对区域降水的影响[J].科学通报,2008,53(23):2 947-2 955.[Duan Jing,Mao Jietai.Effect of aerosol to the regional precipitation in North China[J].Chinese Science Bulletin,2008,53(23):2 947-2 955.]
[15]陈晓晨,徐影,许崇海,等.CMIP5全球气候模式对中国地区降水模拟能力的评估[J].气候变化研究进展,2014,10(3):217-225.[Chen Xiaochen,Xu Ying,Xu Chonghai,et al.Assessment of precipitation simulations in China by CMIP5 Multi-models[J].Climate Change Research,2014,10(3):217-225.]
[16]Pierce D W,Barnett T P,Santer B D,et al.Selecting global climate models for regional climate change studies[J].Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences,2009,106(21):8 441-8 446.
[17]Chen W,Jiang Z,Li L.Probabilistic projections of climate change over China under the SRES A1B Scenario Using 28 AOGCMs[J].Journal of Climate,2011,24(17):4 741-47 56.
[18]魏凤英.现代气候统计诊断与预测技术[M].北京:气象出版社,2007.[Wei Fengying.Modern Climate Statistical Diagnosis and Prediction Technology[M].Beijing:China Meteorological Press,2007.]
[19]陈晓燕.中国北方极端降水事件特征及成因研究[D].兰州:兰州大学,2012.[Chen Xiaoyan.Studies on the Characteristics and Formative Causes of Extreme Precipitation Events in the Northern China[D].Lanzhou:Lanzhou University,2012.]
[20]秦世广,石广玉,陈林,等.利用地面水平能见度估算并分析中国地区气溶胶光学厚度长期变化特征[J].大气科学,2010,34(2):449-456.[Qin Shiguang,Shi Guangyu,Chen Lin,et al.Long-term variation of aerosol optical depth in China based on meteorological horizontal visibility observations[J].Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences,2010,34(2):449-456.]
[21]罗云峰,吕达仁,李维亮,等.近30年来中国地区大气气溶胶光学厚度的变化特征[J].科学通报,2000,45(5):549-554.[Luo Yunfeng,LüDaren,Li Weiliang,et al.Characteristics of atmospheric aerosol optical depth variation over China in recent 30years[J].Chinese Science Bulletin,2000,45(5):549-554.]
[22]宿兴涛,许丽人,魏强,等.东亚地区沙尘气溶胶对降水的影响研究[J].高原气象,2016,35(1):211-219.[Su Xingtao,Xu Liren,Wei Qiang,et al.Study of impacts of dust aerosol on precipitation over East Asia[J].Plateau Meteorology,2016,35(1):211-219.]
[23]岳治国,刘晓东,梁谷.气溶胶对北京地区不同类型云降水影响的数值模拟[J].高原气象,2011,30(5):1 356-1 367.[Yue Zhiguo,Liu Xiaodong,Liang Gu.Numerical simulation of influence of aerosols on different cloud precipitation types in Beijing area[J].Plateau Meteorology,2011,30(5):1 356-1 367.]
[24]高艳春,吴涧.气溶胶影响中国东部微量降水的初步分析[J].中国科学院大学学报,2014,31(3):314-321.[Gao Yanchun,Wu Jian.Preliminary analysis of effects of aerosol on slight rain reduction in Eastern China[J].Journal of University of Chinese A-cademy of Sciences,2014,31(3):314-321.]
[25]Qian Y,Gong D,Fan J,et al.Heavy pollution suppresses light rain in China:Observations and modeling[J].Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres,2009,114(D7):D00k02.
[26]王健颖,郑小波,赵天良,等.四川盆地气溶胶变化对弱降水的影响:基于干能见度的气候分析[J].生态环境学报,2016,25(4):621-628.[Wang Jianying,Zheng Xiaobo,Zhao Tianliang,et al.The effects of aerosol variation on light rain over the Sichuan Basin:Base on dry visibility[J].Ecology and Environmental Sciences,2016,25(4):621-628.]
[27]王晖,隆霄,马旭林,等.近50 a中国西北地区东部降水特征[J].干旱区研究,2013,30(4):712-718.[Wang Hui,Long Xiao,Ma Xulin,et al.Precipitation in the eastern part of Northwest China in recent 50 years[J].Arid Zone Research,2013,30(4):712-718.]
[28]闵屾,钱永甫.我国近40年各类降水事件的变化趋势[J].中山大学学报,2008,47(3):105-111.[Min Shen,Qian Yongfu.Trends in all kinds of precipitation events in China over the past 40years[J].Acta Scientiarum Naturalium Universitatis Sunyatseni,2008,47(3):105-111.]