白龟山水库入库洪水预报分布式模型研究
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摘要
白龟山水库流域下垫面条件复杂,人类活动剧烈,洪水受上游昭平台水库影响,洪水预报难度大,采用常规的洪水预报模型无法满足水库防洪调度对洪水预报的精度要求。为了充分发挥水库在淮河流域防洪中的作用,实现水库洪水资源的最大化利用,需要高精度的水库入库洪水预报作支撑。采用国内外新一代流域洪水预报模型——流溪河模型开展了白龟山水库入库洪水预报研究。以高分辨率的DEM为依据,构建了白龟山水库入库洪水预报流溪河模型结构,并确定了初始模型参数,采用PSO优化算法,对模型参数进行了自动优选。对白龟山水库实测入库洪水过程进行了模拟,效果明显优于集总式NAM模型,可应用于白龟山水库入库洪水预报。
Due to the complex terrain property,extreme human activity and the impact of Zhaopintai Reservoir in the upstream,the flood forecasting of Baiguishan Reservoir is difficult,and the traditional flood forecasting model can provide no accurate flood forecasting for reservoir flood regulation. To play its potential capability in Huaihe flood mitigation,fulfill the maximum benefit of flood resource utilization,high accuracy flood forecasting is the key support for fulfilling the reservoir ' s flood mitigation capability. This paper studies the flood forecasting model by employing the new generation flood forecasting model-the Liuxihe Model. Based on the high resolution DEM,the model structure is set up first with the initial model parameter derived,then the model parameters are optimized by using the PSO algorithm.Observed flood events are simulated by the model,the results are better than those of NAM model,a lumped hydrological model,and can be used to forecast the flood of Baiguishan Reservoir.
Due to the complex terrain property,extreme human activity and the impact of Zhaopintai Reservoir in the upstream,the flood forecasting of Baiguishan Reservoir is difficult,and the traditional flood forecasting model can provide no accurate flood forecasting for reservoir flood regulation. To play its potential capability in Huaihe flood mitigation,fulfill the maximum benefit of flood resource utilization,high accuracy flood forecasting is the key support for fulfilling the reservoir ' s flood mitigation capability. This paper studies the flood forecasting model by employing the new generation flood forecasting model-the Liuxihe Model. Based on the high resolution DEM,the model structure is set up first with the initial model parameter derived,then the model parameters are optimized by using the PSO algorithm.Observed flood events are simulated by the model,the results are better than those of NAM model,a lumped hydrological model,and can be used to forecast the flood of Baiguishan Reservoir.
引文
[1]袁晶瑄,王本德,田力.白龟山水库防洪预报调度方式研究及风险分析[J].水力发电学报,2010,(2):132-138.
[2]Abbott M B.An introduction to the European hydrologic system-system hydrologue European,'SHE',2:structure of a physically based[J].Distributed Modeling System,Journal of Hydrology,1986:87.
[3]Liang X,D P Lettenmaier,E F Wood,et al.A simple hydrologically based model of land surface water and energy fluxes for general circulation models[J].Geophys.Res.,1994,99(D7):14 415-14 428.
[4]Wang Z,Batelaan O,De Smedt F.A distributed model for water and energy transfer between soil,plants and atmosphere(Wet Spa)[J].Phys.Chem.Earth,1996,21:189-193.
[5]Vieux B E,J E Vieux.Vflo TM:a real-time distributed hydrologic model[C]∥Proceedings of the 2nd Federal Interagency Hydrologic Modeling Conference.July 28-August 1,2002,Las Vegas,Nevada.Abstract and paper on CD-ROM,2002.
[6]Jia Y,Ni G,Kawahara Y,et al.Development of WEP model and its application to an urban watershed[J].Hydrological Processes,2001,15(11):2 175-2 194.
[7]李兰,钟名军.基于GIS的LL-Ⅱ分布式降雨径流模型的结构[J].水电能源科学,2003,21(4).
[8]Yangbo Chen,Qiwei Ren,Fenghua Huang,et al.Liuxihe model and its modeling to river basin flood[J].Journal of Hydrologic Engineering,2011,16(1):33-50.
[9]陈洋波,任启伟,徐会军,等.流溪河模型I:原理与方法[J].中山大学学报(自然科学版),2010,49(1):105-112.
[10]Sharma A,Tiwari K N.A comparative appraisal of hydrological behavior of SRTM DEM at catchment level[J].J.Hydrol.,2014,519:1 394-1 404.
[11]Loveland T R,Reed B C,Brown J F,et al.Development of a global land cover characteristics database and IGBP discover from 1-km AVHRR data[J].Int.J.Remote Sens.,2000,21:1 303-1 330.
[12]陈洋波,任启伟,徐会军,等.流溪河模型II:参数确定[J].中山大学学报(自然科学版),2010,49(2),105-112.
[13]陈洋波,流溪河模型[M].北京:科学出版社,2009.
[14]徐会军,陈洋波,曾碧球,等.SCE-UA算法在流溪河模型参数优选中的应用[J].热带地理,2012,32(1):32-37.
[15]Yangbo Chen,Ji Li,Huijun Xu.Improving flood forecasting capability of physically based distributed hydrological model by parameter optimization[J].Hydrology&Earth System Sciences,2016,20:375-392.
[16]Sugawara M.Tank model[M].Computer Models of Watershed Hydrology,1995:165-214.
[17]Arya L M,J F Paris.A physioempirical model to predict the soil moisture characteristic from particle-size distribution and bulk density data[J].Soil Sci.Soc.Am.J,1981,45:1 023-1 030.
[18]Shamsudin S,Hashim N.Rainfall-runoff simulation using MIKE 11NAM[M].Journal of Civil Engineering,2002,15(2):1-13.
[19]Danish Hydraulic Institute(DHI).MIKE11:a modeling system for rivers and channels user-guide manual[R].DHI,2004.
[20]林波,刘琪璟,尚鹤,等.MIKE 11/NAM模型在挠力河流域的应用[J].北京林业大学学报,2014,(5):99-108.
[21]Loliyana,V D,Patel,P L.Lumped conceptual hydrological model for Puma river basin[J].Sadhana-Academy Proceedings in Engineering Sciences,2015,40(8):2 411-2 428.
[22]Tawatchai Tingsanchali,Mahesh Raj Gautam.Application of tank,NAM,ARMA and neural network models to flood forecasting[J].Hydrol.Process.,2000:1 414.
[23]Yee Cai Goh,Zurina Zainol,Mohd Zaki Mat Amin.Assessment of future water availability under the changing climate:case study of Klang River Basin,Malaysia[J].International Journal of River Basin Management,2016:141.
[24]Sherman L K.Stream flow from rainfall by the Unit-Graph Method[R].Eng.News-Rec.,1932,108:501-505.
[25]Horton R E.The role of infiltration in the hydrologic cycle[J].Transactions of the American Geophysical Union,1933,14:446-460.
[26]Bicknell B R,Imhoff J C,Kittle Jr J L,et al.Hydrological simulation rrogram-fortran(HSPF):uesr's manual for release 12.2[M].US Environmental Protection Agency,Athens,Georgia,2005.
[27]Hydrologic Engineering Center.HEC-1,flood hydrograph package:uesr's manual[R].Davis,California USA:US Army Corps of Engineers,Hydrologic Engineering Center,1981.
[28]Bergstiom S,Singh V P.The HBV model[M].Computer Models of Watershed Hydrology,1995:443-476.
[29]赵人俊.流域水文模型——新安江模型与陕北模型[M].水利出版社,1984.
[30]Freeze R A,Harlan R L.Blueprint for a physically-based,digitally simulated[J].Hydrologic Response Model,Journal of Hydrology,1969,(9):237-258.
[31]Kouwen N.WATFLOOD:a micro-computer based flood forecasting system based on real-time weather radar[J].Canadian Water Resources Journal,1988,13(1):62-77.
[32]Wigmosta M S,L W Vail,D P Lettenmaier.A distributed hydrology-vegetation model for complex terrain[J].Water Resources Research,1994,30(6):1 665-1 669.
[33]Julien P Y,Saghafian B,Ogden F L.Raster-based hydrologic modeling of spatially-varied surface runoff[J].Water Resources Bulletin,1995,31(3):523-536.
[34]Yang D,Herath S,Musiake K.Development of a geomorphologic properties extracted from DEMs for hydrologic modeling[J].Annual Journal of Hydraulic Engineering JSCE,1997,(47):49-65.
[2]Abbott M B.An introduction to the European hydrologic system-system hydrologue European,'SHE',2:structure of a physically based[J].Distributed Modeling System,Journal of Hydrology,1986:87.
[3]Liang X,D P Lettenmaier,E F Wood,et al.A simple hydrologically based model of land surface water and energy fluxes for general circulation models[J].Geophys.Res.,1994,99(D7):14 415-14 428.
[4]Wang Z,Batelaan O,De Smedt F.A distributed model for water and energy transfer between soil,plants and atmosphere(Wet Spa)[J].Phys.Chem.Earth,1996,21:189-193.
[5]Vieux B E,J E Vieux.Vflo TM:a real-time distributed hydrologic model[C]∥Proceedings of the 2nd Federal Interagency Hydrologic Modeling Conference.July 28-August 1,2002,Las Vegas,Nevada.Abstract and paper on CD-ROM,2002.
[6]Jia Y,Ni G,Kawahara Y,et al.Development of WEP model and its application to an urban watershed[J].Hydrological Processes,2001,15(11):2 175-2 194.
[7]李兰,钟名军.基于GIS的LL-Ⅱ分布式降雨径流模型的结构[J].水电能源科学,2003,21(4).
[8]Yangbo Chen,Qiwei Ren,Fenghua Huang,et al.Liuxihe model and its modeling to river basin flood[J].Journal of Hydrologic Engineering,2011,16(1):33-50.
[9]陈洋波,任启伟,徐会军,等.流溪河模型I:原理与方法[J].中山大学学报(自然科学版),2010,49(1):105-112.
[10]Sharma A,Tiwari K N.A comparative appraisal of hydrological behavior of SRTM DEM at catchment level[J].J.Hydrol.,2014,519:1 394-1 404.
[11]Loveland T R,Reed B C,Brown J F,et al.Development of a global land cover characteristics database and IGBP discover from 1-km AVHRR data[J].Int.J.Remote Sens.,2000,21:1 303-1 330.
[12]陈洋波,任启伟,徐会军,等.流溪河模型II:参数确定[J].中山大学学报(自然科学版),2010,49(2),105-112.
[13]陈洋波,流溪河模型[M].北京:科学出版社,2009.
[14]徐会军,陈洋波,曾碧球,等.SCE-UA算法在流溪河模型参数优选中的应用[J].热带地理,2012,32(1):32-37.
[15]Yangbo Chen,Ji Li,Huijun Xu.Improving flood forecasting capability of physically based distributed hydrological model by parameter optimization[J].Hydrology&Earth System Sciences,2016,20:375-392.
[16]Sugawara M.Tank model[M].Computer Models of Watershed Hydrology,1995:165-214.
[17]Arya L M,J F Paris.A physioempirical model to predict the soil moisture characteristic from particle-size distribution and bulk density data[J].Soil Sci.Soc.Am.J,1981,45:1 023-1 030.
[18]Shamsudin S,Hashim N.Rainfall-runoff simulation using MIKE 11NAM[M].Journal of Civil Engineering,2002,15(2):1-13.
[19]Danish Hydraulic Institute(DHI).MIKE11:a modeling system for rivers and channels user-guide manual[R].DHI,2004.
[20]林波,刘琪璟,尚鹤,等.MIKE 11/NAM模型在挠力河流域的应用[J].北京林业大学学报,2014,(5):99-108.
[21]Loliyana,V D,Patel,P L.Lumped conceptual hydrological model for Puma river basin[J].Sadhana-Academy Proceedings in Engineering Sciences,2015,40(8):2 411-2 428.
[22]Tawatchai Tingsanchali,Mahesh Raj Gautam.Application of tank,NAM,ARMA and neural network models to flood forecasting[J].Hydrol.Process.,2000:1 414.
[23]Yee Cai Goh,Zurina Zainol,Mohd Zaki Mat Amin.Assessment of future water availability under the changing climate:case study of Klang River Basin,Malaysia[J].International Journal of River Basin Management,2016:141.
[24]Sherman L K.Stream flow from rainfall by the Unit-Graph Method[R].Eng.News-Rec.,1932,108:501-505.
[25]Horton R E.The role of infiltration in the hydrologic cycle[J].Transactions of the American Geophysical Union,1933,14:446-460.
[26]Bicknell B R,Imhoff J C,Kittle Jr J L,et al.Hydrological simulation rrogram-fortran(HSPF):uesr's manual for release 12.2[M].US Environmental Protection Agency,Athens,Georgia,2005.
[27]Hydrologic Engineering Center.HEC-1,flood hydrograph package:uesr's manual[R].Davis,California USA:US Army Corps of Engineers,Hydrologic Engineering Center,1981.
[28]Bergstiom S,Singh V P.The HBV model[M].Computer Models of Watershed Hydrology,1995:443-476.
[29]赵人俊.流域水文模型——新安江模型与陕北模型[M].水利出版社,1984.
[30]Freeze R A,Harlan R L.Blueprint for a physically-based,digitally simulated[J].Hydrologic Response Model,Journal of Hydrology,1969,(9):237-258.
[31]Kouwen N.WATFLOOD:a micro-computer based flood forecasting system based on real-time weather radar[J].Canadian Water Resources Journal,1988,13(1):62-77.
[32]Wigmosta M S,L W Vail,D P Lettenmaier.A distributed hydrology-vegetation model for complex terrain[J].Water Resources Research,1994,30(6):1 665-1 669.
[33]Julien P Y,Saghafian B,Ogden F L.Raster-based hydrologic modeling of spatially-varied surface runoff[J].Water Resources Bulletin,1995,31(3):523-536.
[34]Yang D,Herath S,Musiake K.Development of a geomorphologic properties extracted from DEMs for hydrologic modeling[J].Annual Journal of Hydraulic Engineering JSCE,1997,(47):49-65.