产业结构早熟对经济增长的影响及其内生性解释——基于互联网式创新力视角
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摘要
笔者提出了一个基于创新模式、产业结构和经济增长的理论逻辑和分析框架,并分析了当前异质性的互联网式创新带来的影响。我们将25个跨越"中等收入陷阱"的国家和25个仍未跨越或花较长时间跨越"中等收入陷阱"的国家分为P (Passed)组与T (Trapped)组,并以此为样本,通过面板数据模型验证互联网式创新、产业结构和经济增长关系的理论:在创新不足的情况下,服务业超过制造业过快发展可能会造成产业结构早熟,会对经济持续增长带来负向影响;互联网式创新力具有异质性,其模式创新和科技创新深刻作用于服务业和制造业,对各国的产业结构变迁和经济增长产生不同影响。笔者认为:互联网与传统产业的渐进融合,对于中国经济亦是一把双刃剑;在互联网已经与服务业深度结合、经济水平不断提高之后,中国下一步的经济增长后劲在于互联网是否能与工业、尤其是制造业有效结合,以弥补前期科学发现、技术突破和产品创新上的不足,从而带来产业结构的深化。
This paper proposes a theoretical framework based on innovation model,industrial structure and economic growth,and analyzes the impact of current heterogeneous Internet-based innovation.This paper defines 25 countries passed the "middle-income trap" as P countries and 25 countries that failed as T countries.Taking 50 countries as samples,this paper uses panel data to verify the theory of the relationship among Internet-based innovation,industrial structure and economic growth: without adequate innovation,the service industry overtaking the manufacturing industry may cause premature industrial structure,which will have a negative impact on sustained economic growth; Internet-based innovation has heterogeneity,and its business model innovation and sci-tech innovation profoundly affect the service industry and manufacturing industry,which has a different impact on the changes of industrial structure and economic growth of various countries.The gradual integration of the Internet and traditional industries may also be a double-edged sword for China's economy.The result shows that after the Internet has been deeply integrated with the service industry and the economic level has been improved continuously,China's future economic growth potential lies in whether the Internet can be effectively integrated with industry,especially manufacturing industry,to make up for the lack of scientific discoveries,technological breakthroughs and product innovation,thus drive industrial structure improvement.
This paper proposes a theoretical framework based on innovation model,industrial structure and economic growth,and analyzes the impact of current heterogeneous Internet-based innovation.This paper defines 25 countries passed the "middle-income trap" as P countries and 25 countries that failed as T countries.Taking 50 countries as samples,this paper uses panel data to verify the theory of the relationship among Internet-based innovation,industrial structure and economic growth: without adequate innovation,the service industry overtaking the manufacturing industry may cause premature industrial structure,which will have a negative impact on sustained economic growth; Internet-based innovation has heterogeneity,and its business model innovation and sci-tech innovation profoundly affect the service industry and manufacturing industry,which has a different impact on the changes of industrial structure and economic growth of various countries.The gradual integration of the Internet and traditional industries may also be a double-edged sword for China's economy.The result shows that after the Internet has been deeply integrated with the service industry and the economic level has been improved continuously,China's future economic growth potential lies in whether the Internet can be effectively integrated with industry,especially manufacturing industry,to make up for the lack of scientific discoveries,technological breakthroughs and product innovation,thus drive industrial structure improvement.
引文
[1]Clark C.The Conditions of Economic Progress[M].London:Macmillan,3rd Edition,1957.
[2] Kuznets S,Modern Economic Growth:Rate,Structure and Spread[M].New Haven and London:Yale University Press,1966.
[3] Ngai L R,Pissarides C A.Structural Change in a Multisector Model of Growth[J].The American Economic Review,2007,97(1):429-443.
[4]谭洪波,郑江淮.中国经济高速增长与服务业滞后并存之谜——基于部门全要素生产率的研究[J].中国工业经济,2012(9):5-17.
[5]郑若谷,干春晖,余典范.转型期中国经济增长的产业结构和制度效应——基于一个随机前沿模型的研究[J].中国工业经济,2010,(2):58-67.
[6]Jiang X,Hui L.Service Industry and China’s Economy:Correlation and Potential of Faster Growth[J] Economic Research Journal,2004(1):4-15.
[7] Eichengreen B,Gupta P.The Service Sector as India’s Road to Economic Growth[R].National Bureau of Economic Research,2011.
[8]丁志国,赵宣凯,苏治.中国经济增长的核心动力——基于资源配置效率的产业升级方向与路径选择[J].中国工业经济,2012,(9):18-30.
[9]刘伟,蔡志洲,张辉.结构高度化、经济效率化与经济增长——中国改革开放30年经验和启示[C].全国高校社会主义经济理论与实践研讨会领导小组.社会主义经济理论研究集萃——纪念中国改革开放30周年.2008:7.
[10]丁一兵,傅缨捷,曹野.融资约束、技术创新与跨越“中等收入陷阱”——基于产业结构升级视角的分析[J].产业经济研究,2014(3):101-110.
[11]Chenery H B,Robinson S,Syrquin M.Industrialization and Growth[M].Washington,DC,USA:World Bank,1986.
[12]史丹.发展服务业并不意味着忽视制造业[N].人民日报,2015-05-11.
[13]丹尼·罗德里克.过早开始“去工业化”的危险[J].南风窗,2013(22):85.
[14]蔡昉.防止产业结构“逆库兹涅茨化”[N].第一财经日报,2014-12-31.
[15]Baumol W J.Macroeconomics of Unbalanced Growth:The Snatomy of Urban Crisis[J].The American Economic Review,1967,57(3):415-426.
[16]干春晖,郑若谷,余典范.中国产业结构变迁对经济增长和波动的影响[J].经济研究,2011(5):4-16,31.
[17]白骏骄.融资约束与中国互联网式创新——基于互联网上市公司数据[J].经济问题,2014(9):13-19.
[18]代法涛.跨越“中等收入陷阱”:理论、经验和对策——基于44个国家的跨国实证分析[J].财经研究,2014(2):54-66.
[19]郑秉文.“中等收入陷阱”与中国发展道路——基于国际经验教训的视角[J].中国人口科学,2011(1):2-15,111.
[20] Arellano M,Bover O.Another Look at the Instrumental Variable Estimation of Error-components Models[J].Journal of Econometrics,1995,68(1):29-51.
① T组选取南美洲的玻利维亚、墨西哥、哥伦比亚、哥斯达黎加、巴拉圭、乌拉圭、阿根廷、巴西,欧洲的保加利亚、罗马尼亚、俄罗斯、乌克兰,非洲的阿尔及利亚、加蓬、摩洛哥、突尼斯、南非,亚洲的马来西亚、菲律宾、牙买加、印度尼西亚、印度、秘鲁、泰国、土耳其25个国家作为陷入“中等收入陷阱”的国家;P组选取澳大利亚、新西兰、奥地利、比利时、捷克、丹麦、芬兰、法国、德国、匈牙利、冰岛、爱尔兰、意大利、荷兰、挪威、波兰、葡萄牙、斯洛伐克、西班牙、瑞典、英国、加拿大、美国、日本、韩国25个国家作为跨越“中等收入陷阱”的国家。
(1)指参与生产活动的消费者,既是消费者(Consumer)又是生产者(Producer)。
(2)这里采用互联网用户普及率而不是固定互联网普及率,因为中国的互联网用户普及率数据更为完整和全面。
[2] Kuznets S,Modern Economic Growth:Rate,Structure and Spread[M].New Haven and London:Yale University Press,1966.
[3] Ngai L R,Pissarides C A.Structural Change in a Multisector Model of Growth[J].The American Economic Review,2007,97(1):429-443.
[4]谭洪波,郑江淮.中国经济高速增长与服务业滞后并存之谜——基于部门全要素生产率的研究[J].中国工业经济,2012(9):5-17.
[5]郑若谷,干春晖,余典范.转型期中国经济增长的产业结构和制度效应——基于一个随机前沿模型的研究[J].中国工业经济,2010,(2):58-67.
[6]Jiang X,Hui L.Service Industry and China’s Economy:Correlation and Potential of Faster Growth[J] Economic Research Journal,2004(1):4-15.
[7] Eichengreen B,Gupta P.The Service Sector as India’s Road to Economic Growth[R].National Bureau of Economic Research,2011.
[8]丁志国,赵宣凯,苏治.中国经济增长的核心动力——基于资源配置效率的产业升级方向与路径选择[J].中国工业经济,2012,(9):18-30.
[9]刘伟,蔡志洲,张辉.结构高度化、经济效率化与经济增长——中国改革开放30年经验和启示[C].全国高校社会主义经济理论与实践研讨会领导小组.社会主义经济理论研究集萃——纪念中国改革开放30周年.2008:7.
[10]丁一兵,傅缨捷,曹野.融资约束、技术创新与跨越“中等收入陷阱”——基于产业结构升级视角的分析[J].产业经济研究,2014(3):101-110.
[11]Chenery H B,Robinson S,Syrquin M.Industrialization and Growth[M].Washington,DC,USA:World Bank,1986.
[12]史丹.发展服务业并不意味着忽视制造业[N].人民日报,2015-05-11.
[13]丹尼·罗德里克.过早开始“去工业化”的危险[J].南风窗,2013(22):85.
[14]蔡昉.防止产业结构“逆库兹涅茨化”[N].第一财经日报,2014-12-31.
[15]Baumol W J.Macroeconomics of Unbalanced Growth:The Snatomy of Urban Crisis[J].The American Economic Review,1967,57(3):415-426.
[16]干春晖,郑若谷,余典范.中国产业结构变迁对经济增长和波动的影响[J].经济研究,2011(5):4-16,31.
[17]白骏骄.融资约束与中国互联网式创新——基于互联网上市公司数据[J].经济问题,2014(9):13-19.
[18]代法涛.跨越“中等收入陷阱”:理论、经验和对策——基于44个国家的跨国实证分析[J].财经研究,2014(2):54-66.
[19]郑秉文.“中等收入陷阱”与中国发展道路——基于国际经验教训的视角[J].中国人口科学,2011(1):2-15,111.
[20] Arellano M,Bover O.Another Look at the Instrumental Variable Estimation of Error-components Models[J].Journal of Econometrics,1995,68(1):29-51.
① T组选取南美洲的玻利维亚、墨西哥、哥伦比亚、哥斯达黎加、巴拉圭、乌拉圭、阿根廷、巴西,欧洲的保加利亚、罗马尼亚、俄罗斯、乌克兰,非洲的阿尔及利亚、加蓬、摩洛哥、突尼斯、南非,亚洲的马来西亚、菲律宾、牙买加、印度尼西亚、印度、秘鲁、泰国、土耳其25个国家作为陷入“中等收入陷阱”的国家;P组选取澳大利亚、新西兰、奥地利、比利时、捷克、丹麦、芬兰、法国、德国、匈牙利、冰岛、爱尔兰、意大利、荷兰、挪威、波兰、葡萄牙、斯洛伐克、西班牙、瑞典、英国、加拿大、美国、日本、韩国25个国家作为跨越“中等收入陷阱”的国家。
(1)指参与生产活动的消费者,既是消费者(Consumer)又是生产者(Producer)。
(2)这里采用互联网用户普及率而不是固定互联网普及率,因为中国的互联网用户普及率数据更为完整和全面。