基于步进应力加速试验的某电子部件寿命评估
|
摘要
针对电子高可靠性、长寿命的特点,提出了使用步进应力加速寿命试验方法来评估电子部件件的贮存寿命和可靠性指标。基于威布尔寿命分布和Arrhenius加速寿命模型,采用极大似然法进行参数估计,对电子部件在常温下(25℃)的贮存寿命进行评估。结果表明,在25℃下且可靠度为0.995时,使用步进应力加速寿命试验方法评估电子部件的寿命约为16.22年,与恒定应力下的加速寿命试验得出的结果相近,充分说明了采用步进应力加速寿命方法评估电子部件的有效性。
Aiming at evaluating the storage life of electronic components with the characteristics of high reliability and long life, a timing censored step stress accelerated life test method is proposed. The Weibull distribution accelerated life model was established, and the maximum likelihood method was used to estimate the parameters. The storage life of the electronic components at normal temperature was obtained according to Arrhenius model and the above parameters. The results indicated that the life of the electronic component is estimated to be 16.22 years at 25°C when the reliability is 0.995, using the time-staggered step stress accelerated life test method, which is not much different from the evaluation life result under constant stress, this verifies the effectiveness of using the step stress accelerated life method to evaluate the life of electronic components.
Aiming at evaluating the storage life of electronic components with the characteristics of high reliability and long life, a timing censored step stress accelerated life test method is proposed. The Weibull distribution accelerated life model was established, and the maximum likelihood method was used to estimate the parameters. The storage life of the electronic components at normal temperature was obtained according to Arrhenius model and the above parameters. The results indicated that the life of the electronic component is estimated to be 16.22 years at 25°C when the reliability is 0.995, using the time-staggered step stress accelerated life test method, which is not much different from the evaluation life result under constant stress, this verifies the effectiveness of using the step stress accelerated life method to evaluate the life of electronic components.
引文
[1]范志锋,齐杏林,雷彬.加速可靠性试验综述[J].装备环境工程,2008,5(2):37-40+92.FAN Zhi-feng,QI Xing-lin,LEI Bin.Review of Accelerated Reliability Tests[J].Equipment Environmental Engineering,2008,5(2):37-40+92.
[2]李海波,张正平,胡彦平.加速寿命试验方法及其在航天产品中的应用[J].强度与环境,2007,34(1):2-10.LI Hai-bo,ZHANG Zheng-ping,HU Yan-ping.Accelerated life testing method and its applications for space products[J].Structure&Environment Engineering,2007,34(1):2-10.
[3]曹宏.空间环境下滤波减速器的加速寿命试验研究[D].成都:电子科技大学,2014.CAO Hong.Study on accelerated life testing of the filtering gear reducer under space environment[D].Chengdu:University of Electronic Science and Technology of China,2014.
[4]葛广平.我国加速寿命试验研究的现状与展望[J].数理统计与管理,2000,19(1):25-29.GE Guang-ping.An outline and outlook on the research of accelerated life tests in China[J].Application of Statistics and Management,2000,19(1):25-29.
[5]马雪峰,葛广平.循环序进应力加速寿命试验的模型与数据分析[J].应用概率统计.1997(1):11-18.MA Xue-feng,GE Guang-ping.Accelerated life testingcircular-progressive-stress models and data analysys[J].Chinese Journal of Applied Probability and Statistics.1997(1):11-18.
[6]张春华.步降应力加速寿命试验的理论和方法[D].长沙:国防科学技术大学,2002.ZHANG Chun-hua.Theory and method of step-down stress accelerated life test[D].Changsha:National University of Defense Technology,2002.
[7]郑光宇,胡昌华,张伟,等.基于可能性理论的随机应力加速寿命试验分析方法[J].电光与控制.2009(7):80-83.ZHENG Guang-yu,HU Chang-hua,ZHANG Wei,et al.An approach for analyzing accelerated life test with random stresses based in possiibility theory[J].Electronics Optics&Control.2009(7):80-83.
[8]付志慧.混合加速寿命试验模型以及双应力交叉步进应力加速寿命试验的统计分析[D].长春:吉林大学,2004.FU Zhi-hui.Statistical analysis of hybrid accelerated life test model and double stress cross step stress accelerated life test[D].Changchun:Jilin University,2004.
[9]MAZZUCHI T A,SOYER R.Dynamic models for statistical inference from accelerated life tests[C]//Reliability&Maintainability Symposium.IEEE,1990,67-70.
[10]BUGAIGHIS M M.Exchange of censorship types and its impact on the estimation of parameters of a Weibull regression model[J].IEEE Transactions on Reliability,1995,44(3):496-499.
[11]朱广滕,顾晓辉,方道红,等.电子部件失效模式试验与仿真研究[J].装备环境工程,2013(6):45-49.ZHU Guang-teng,GU Xiao-hui,FANG Dao-hong,et al.Electronic Components Failure Mode Test and Simulation Study[J].Equipment Environmental Engineering,2013(6):45-49.
[12]王玲玲.步进应力加速寿命试验数据处理及其应用[J].数理统计与管理,1984(1):20-25.WANG Ling-ling.Data Processing and Application of Step Stress Accelerated Life Test[J].Mathematical Statistics and Management,1984(1):20-25.
[13]伍建军,游雄雄,吴事浪,等.两参数威布尔分布的废旧矿冶零部件再制造剩余寿命预测新方法[J].机械科学与技术,2016,35(4):589-593.WU Jian-jun,YOU Xiong-xiong,WU Shi-lang,et al.Residual Life Prediction of Remanufacturing for Mining Waste Parts Based on Two-parameter Weibull Distribution[J].Mechanical Science and Technology for Aerospace Engineering,2016,35(4):589-593.
[14]何朝兵.右删失左截断数据下离散威布尔分布的参数估计[J].郑州大学学报(理学版),2016,48(2):18-23.HE Chao-bing.Parameter Estimations of Discrete Weibull Distribution with Left Truncated and Right Censored Data[J].Journal of Zhengzhou University(Natural Science Edition),2016,48(2):18-23.
[15]胡恩平,罗兴柏,艾志利.三参数威布尔分布条件下的无线电引信步进应力加速寿命试验与数据处理[J].探测与控制学报,2000,22(2):37-40.HU En-ping,LUO Xing-bai,AI Zhi-li.The Step Stress ALT and Data Processing of the Radio Fuze under the Condition of Three-parameter Weibull Distribution[J].Journal of Detection&Control,2000,22(2):37-40.
[16]马群,佟晓君.不完全寿命威布尔分布三参数最大似然估计式求解[J].河北联合大学学报(自然科学版),2001,23(2):17-20.MA Qun,TONG Xiao-jun.Solution of Three-Parameter Maximum Likelihood Estimation for Incomplete Lifetime Weibull Distribution[J].Journal of Hebei United University,2001,23(2):17-20.
[2]李海波,张正平,胡彦平.加速寿命试验方法及其在航天产品中的应用[J].强度与环境,2007,34(1):2-10.LI Hai-bo,ZHANG Zheng-ping,HU Yan-ping.Accelerated life testing method and its applications for space products[J].Structure&Environment Engineering,2007,34(1):2-10.
[3]曹宏.空间环境下滤波减速器的加速寿命试验研究[D].成都:电子科技大学,2014.CAO Hong.Study on accelerated life testing of the filtering gear reducer under space environment[D].Chengdu:University of Electronic Science and Technology of China,2014.
[4]葛广平.我国加速寿命试验研究的现状与展望[J].数理统计与管理,2000,19(1):25-29.GE Guang-ping.An outline and outlook on the research of accelerated life tests in China[J].Application of Statistics and Management,2000,19(1):25-29.
[5]马雪峰,葛广平.循环序进应力加速寿命试验的模型与数据分析[J].应用概率统计.1997(1):11-18.MA Xue-feng,GE Guang-ping.Accelerated life testingcircular-progressive-stress models and data analysys[J].Chinese Journal of Applied Probability and Statistics.1997(1):11-18.
[6]张春华.步降应力加速寿命试验的理论和方法[D].长沙:国防科学技术大学,2002.ZHANG Chun-hua.Theory and method of step-down stress accelerated life test[D].Changsha:National University of Defense Technology,2002.
[7]郑光宇,胡昌华,张伟,等.基于可能性理论的随机应力加速寿命试验分析方法[J].电光与控制.2009(7):80-83.ZHENG Guang-yu,HU Chang-hua,ZHANG Wei,et al.An approach for analyzing accelerated life test with random stresses based in possiibility theory[J].Electronics Optics&Control.2009(7):80-83.
[8]付志慧.混合加速寿命试验模型以及双应力交叉步进应力加速寿命试验的统计分析[D].长春:吉林大学,2004.FU Zhi-hui.Statistical analysis of hybrid accelerated life test model and double stress cross step stress accelerated life test[D].Changchun:Jilin University,2004.
[9]MAZZUCHI T A,SOYER R.Dynamic models for statistical inference from accelerated life tests[C]//Reliability&Maintainability Symposium.IEEE,1990,67-70.
[10]BUGAIGHIS M M.Exchange of censorship types and its impact on the estimation of parameters of a Weibull regression model[J].IEEE Transactions on Reliability,1995,44(3):496-499.
[11]朱广滕,顾晓辉,方道红,等.电子部件失效模式试验与仿真研究[J].装备环境工程,2013(6):45-49.ZHU Guang-teng,GU Xiao-hui,FANG Dao-hong,et al.Electronic Components Failure Mode Test and Simulation Study[J].Equipment Environmental Engineering,2013(6):45-49.
[12]王玲玲.步进应力加速寿命试验数据处理及其应用[J].数理统计与管理,1984(1):20-25.WANG Ling-ling.Data Processing and Application of Step Stress Accelerated Life Test[J].Mathematical Statistics and Management,1984(1):20-25.
[13]伍建军,游雄雄,吴事浪,等.两参数威布尔分布的废旧矿冶零部件再制造剩余寿命预测新方法[J].机械科学与技术,2016,35(4):589-593.WU Jian-jun,YOU Xiong-xiong,WU Shi-lang,et al.Residual Life Prediction of Remanufacturing for Mining Waste Parts Based on Two-parameter Weibull Distribution[J].Mechanical Science and Technology for Aerospace Engineering,2016,35(4):589-593.
[14]何朝兵.右删失左截断数据下离散威布尔分布的参数估计[J].郑州大学学报(理学版),2016,48(2):18-23.HE Chao-bing.Parameter Estimations of Discrete Weibull Distribution with Left Truncated and Right Censored Data[J].Journal of Zhengzhou University(Natural Science Edition),2016,48(2):18-23.
[15]胡恩平,罗兴柏,艾志利.三参数威布尔分布条件下的无线电引信步进应力加速寿命试验与数据处理[J].探测与控制学报,2000,22(2):37-40.HU En-ping,LUO Xing-bai,AI Zhi-li.The Step Stress ALT and Data Processing of the Radio Fuze under the Condition of Three-parameter Weibull Distribution[J].Journal of Detection&Control,2000,22(2):37-40.
[16]马群,佟晓君.不完全寿命威布尔分布三参数最大似然估计式求解[J].河北联合大学学报(自然科学版),2001,23(2):17-20.MA Qun,TONG Xiao-jun.Solution of Three-Parameter Maximum Likelihood Estimation for Incomplete Lifetime Weibull Distribution[J].Journal of Hebei United University,2001,23(2):17-20.