秋季冰雪因子对我国冬季气温预报技能的改善
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摘要
对1979—2012年冬季气温应用经验正交分解方法,并利用北极海冰密集度(Sea Ice Concentration,SIC)和欧亚大陆雪盖(SNow Cover,SNC)观测数据,计算出秋季SIC和SNC对气温变化有显著影响的区域,建立SIC和SNC指数。基于交叉验证方法构建冰雪指数和我国气温的预测模型,定量评估冰雪因子对冬季气温的预测技能。结果表明,在预报技巧范围和评分上,9月SIC和11月SNC指数的综合预报效果优于单个指数的预报效果,高预报技巧区主要位于我国华北和东北地区,该区域平均距平相关系数为0.58,并且优于气候态后报高达18.7%,表明在季节预报系统中考虑冰冻圈的异常是非常有必要的。
In this study,the empirical orthogonal function( EOF) was performed at the anomaly field of the 600-station winter mean temperature in China during the period of 1979—2012. Then,using the observed antecedent Arctic sea ice concentration( SIC) and Eurasian snowcover( SNC) data,the key areas where SIC and SNC anomalies in autumn have significant effects on the principal variation of following temperature in China are calculated,and based on those areas,the SIC and SNC indices are built.Next,the standard linear regression models which can be used to predict the mean winter temperature at individual stations are established,using one or two cryospheric predictor indices.Through the statistical cross-validation,the mean of the anomaly correlation coefficient( ACC)and root mean square error skill score( RMSESS) between the observed and predicted temperatures are used to quantitatively evaluate the predictive skill of cryospheric factors for the winter mean temperature in China.The results showthat the skill of hindcasts is greatly different among regions between the single September SIC predictor and November SNC predictor.The SIC index has more noticeable skill on central north China,while the November SNC index has more noticeable skill on northeastern China.While hindcasts using both September SIC and November SNC predictors are better than the single on area and score,almost all stations except the Tibetan Plateau area showsignificant skill. The grid points with superior skill are centered on north-central,northeastern and northern China,where the regional average ACC is 0.58,and the method outperforms a climatological hindcast is 18.7%.The results obtained in this study suggest that it is very important to incorporate cryosphere variability in seasonal prediction systems.
In this study,the empirical orthogonal function( EOF) was performed at the anomaly field of the 600-station winter mean temperature in China during the period of 1979—2012. Then,using the observed antecedent Arctic sea ice concentration( SIC) and Eurasian snowcover( SNC) data,the key areas where SIC and SNC anomalies in autumn have significant effects on the principal variation of following temperature in China are calculated,and based on those areas,the SIC and SNC indices are built.Next,the standard linear regression models which can be used to predict the mean winter temperature at individual stations are established,using one or two cryospheric predictor indices.Through the statistical cross-validation,the mean of the anomaly correlation coefficient( ACC)and root mean square error skill score( RMSESS) between the observed and predicted temperatures are used to quantitatively evaluate the predictive skill of cryospheric factors for the winter mean temperature in China.The results showthat the skill of hindcasts is greatly different among regions between the single September SIC predictor and November SNC predictor.The SIC index has more noticeable skill on central north China,while the November SNC index has more noticeable skill on northeastern China.While hindcasts using both September SIC and November SNC predictors are better than the single on area and score,almost all stations except the Tibetan Plateau area showsignificant skill. The grid points with superior skill are centered on north-central,northeastern and northern China,where the regional average ACC is 0.58,and the method outperforms a climatological hindcast is 18.7%.The results obtained in this study suggest that it is very important to incorporate cryosphere variability in seasonal prediction systems.
引文
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Brands S,Herrera S,Gutiérrez J M,2014.Is Eurasian snow cover in October a reliable statistical predictor for the wintertime climate on the Iberian Peninsula?[J].Int J Climatol,34(5):1615-1627.
Chen H,2001.Assessing the impacts of Eurasian snow conditions on climate predictability with a global climate model[J].Atmos Oceanic Sci,3(6):336-341.
Chen W,Lan X Q,Wang L,et al.,2013.The combined effects of the ENSO and the Arctic Oscillation on the winter climate anomalies in East Asia[J].Chin Sic Bull,58(12):1355-1362.
Cohen J,Entekhabi D,1999.Eurasian snow cover variability and Northern Hemisphere climate predictability[J].Geophys Res Lett,26(3):345-348.
Cohen J,Fletcher C,2007.Improved skill of Northern Hemisphere winter surface temperature predictions based on land-atmosphere fall anomalies[J].J Climate,20(16):4118-4132.
Cohen J,Jones J,2011.A new index for more accurate winter predictions[J].Geophys Res Lett,38(21):759-775.
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Foster J,Owe M,Rango A,1983.Snow cover and temperature relationships in North America and Eurasia[J].J Climate Appl Meteor,22(3):460-469.
Francis J A,Chan W H,Leathers D J,et al.,2009.Winter Northern Hemisphere weather patterns remember summer Arctic sea-ice extent[J].Geophys Res Lett,36(7):157-163.
管成功,孙照渤,2002.秋季区域海冰面积异常与冬季大气环流及东亚区域气候的关系[J].南京气象学院学报,25(1):14-20.Guan C G,Sun Z B,2002.Relationship of east siberian autumn sea ice anomaly with winter atmospheric circulation and East Asia climate[J].J Nanjing Inst Meteor,25(1):14-20.(in Chinese).
Gong D Y,Ho C H,2004.Intra-seasonal variability of wintertime temperature over East Asia[J].Int J Climatol,24(2):131-144.
Gong G,Entekhabi D,Cohen J,2003.Modeled Northern Hemisphere winter climate response to realistic Siberian snow anomalies[J].J Climate,16(23):3917-3931.
Honda M,Inoue J,Yamane S,2009.Influence of low Arctic sea-ice minima on anomalously cold Eurasian winters[J].Geophys Res Lett,36(8):L08707.
黄菲,高聪晖,2012.东亚冬季气温的年际变化特征及其与海温和海冰异常的关系[J].中国海洋大学学报(自然科学版),42(9):7-14.Huang F,Gao C H,2012.Interannual variations of winter temperature in East Asia and their relationship with sea surface temperature and sea ice concentration[J].Periodical of Ocean University of China,42(9):7-14.(in Chinese).
Jolliffe I T,Stephenson D B,2011.Forecast verification[M].Chichester,UK:John Wiley & Sons Ltd.
李栋梁,王春学,2011.积雪分布及其对中国气候影响的研究进展[J].大气科学学报,34(5):627-636.Li D L,Wang C X,2011.Research progress of snow cover and its influence on China climate[J].Trans Atmos Sci,34(5):627-636.(in Chinese).
林振敏,施能,2004.北半球冬季大气环流遥相关型特征与我国区域气候[J].气象科技,32(5):333-337,342.Lin Z M,Shi N,2004.Characteristics of winter atmospheric teleconnection patterns in Northern Hemisphere and their effects on climate in China[J].Meteorological Science and Technology,32(5):333-337,342.(in Chinese).
Orsolini Y J,Kvamst? N G,2009.Role of Eurasian snow cover in wintertime circulation:decadal simulations forced with satellite observations[J].J Geophys Res,114(D19):D19108.
秦育婧,卢楚翰,2017.冬季欧亚大陆反气旋活动特征及其与中国气温的关系[J].大气科学学报,40(3):418-424.Qin Y J,Lu C H,2017.Characteristics of the anticyclone over Eurasia and its relationship with the winter temperature in China[J].Trans Atmos Sci,40(3):418-424.(in Chinese).
Saito K,Cohen J,Entekhabi D,2001.Evolution of atmospheric response to early-season Eurasian snow cover anomalies[J].Mon Wea Rev,129(11):2746-2760.
施宁,张乐英,2013.冬季平流层北极涛动对江南气温的影响[J].大气科学学报,36(5):604-610.Shi N,Zhang L Y,2013.Influences of Arctic Oscillation on surface air temperature over the South Yangtze River Regions[J].Trans Atmos Sci,36(5):604-610.(in Chinese).
谭晶,蔡怡,张海东,等,2016.2012/2013年冬季中国气温异常成因分析[J].大气科学学报,39(3):361-369.Tan J,Cai Y,Zhang H D,et al.,2016.Analysis of the cause of the 2012/2013 winter temperature anomaly in China[J].Trans Atmos Sci,39(3):361-369.(in Chinese).
Thompson D W J,Wallace J M,2000.Annular modes in the extratropical circulation,Part Ⅰ:month-to-moth variability[J].J Climate,13(5):1000-1016.
von Storch H,Zwiers F,2002.Statistical analysis in climate research[M].Cambridge:Cambridge University Press.
王嘉,郭裕福,2004.北半球海冰强迫作用下大气可预报性研究[J].应用气象学报,15(3):291-305.Wang J,Guo Y F,2004.Assessing potential predictability associated with boreal sea ice with an AGCM[J].J Appl Meteor Sci,15(3):291-305.(in Chinese).
Wu B Y,Su J Z,Zhang R H,2011a.Effects of autumn-winter Arctic sea ice on winter Siberian High[J].Chin Sci Bull,56(30):3220.
Wu Q G,Straus D M,2004.AO,COWL,and observed climate trends[J].J Climate,17(11):2139-2156.
Wu Q G,Zhang X D,2010.Observed forcing-feedback processes between Northern Hemisphere atmospheric circulation and Arctic sea ice coverage[J].J Geophys Res,115(D14):D14119.
Wu Q G,Hu H B,Zhang L J,2011b.Observed influences of Autumn-Early winter eurasian snow cover anomalies on the hemispheric PNA-like variability in winter[J].J Climate,24(7):2017-2023.
肖晓,陈文,范广洲,等,2016.20世纪90年代末东亚冬季风年代际变化的外强迫因子分析[J].气候与环境研究,21(2):197-209.Xiao X,Chen W,Fan G Z,et al.,2016.Possible external forcing factors for the interdecadal change in the east Asian winter monsoon around the late 1990s[J].Climatic Environ Res,21(2):197-209.(in Chinese).
谢永坤,刘玉芝,黄建平,等,2014.秋季北极海冰对中国冬季气温的影响[J].气象学报,72(4):703-710.Xie Y K,Liu Y Z,Huang J P,et al.,2014.The influence of the autumn Arctic sea ice on winter air temperature in China[J].Acta Meteorologica Sinica,72(4):703-710.(in Chinese).
杨柳妮,2013.东亚冬季气温与中高纬大气环流和外强迫异常的联系[D].北京:中国气象科学研究院.Yang L N,2013.East Asian winter air temperature and its association with the mid-high latitude atmosphere circulation anomalies and the external forcing[D].Beijing:Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences.(in Chinese).
杨修群,谢倩,黄士松,1994.北极冰异常对亚洲夏季风影响的数值模拟[J].海洋学报,16(5):34-40.Yang X Q,Xie Q,Huang S S,1994.Numerical simulation of the influence of Arctic sea ice anomalies on the Asian monsoon in summer[J].Acta Oceanologica Sinica,16(5):34-40.(in Chinese).
张若楠,武炳义,2011.北半球大气对春季北极海冰异常响应的数值模拟[J].大气科学,35(5):847-862.Zhang R N,Wu B Y,2011.The Northern Hemisphere atmospheric response to spring Arctic sea ice anomalies in CAM3.0 model[J].Chin J Atmos Sci,35(5):847-862.(in Chinese).
张天宇,陈海山,孙照渤,2007.欧亚秋季雪盖与北半球冬季大气环流的联系[J].地理学报,62(7):728-741.Zhang T Y,Chen H S,Sun Z B,2007.The relationship between autumn-time Eurasian snow cover and winter-time NH circulation[J].Acta Geogr Sin,62(7):728-741.(in Chinese).
Brands S,Herrera S,Gutiérrez J M,2014.Is Eurasian snow cover in October a reliable statistical predictor for the wintertime climate on the Iberian Peninsula?[J].Int J Climatol,34(5):1615-1627.
Chen H,2001.Assessing the impacts of Eurasian snow conditions on climate predictability with a global climate model[J].Atmos Oceanic Sci,3(6):336-341.
Chen W,Lan X Q,Wang L,et al.,2013.The combined effects of the ENSO and the Arctic Oscillation on the winter climate anomalies in East Asia[J].Chin Sic Bull,58(12):1355-1362.
Cohen J,Entekhabi D,1999.Eurasian snow cover variability and Northern Hemisphere climate predictability[J].Geophys Res Lett,26(3):345-348.
Cohen J,Fletcher C,2007.Improved skill of Northern Hemisphere winter surface temperature predictions based on land-atmosphere fall anomalies[J].J Climate,20(16):4118-4132.
Cohen J,Jones J,2011.A new index for more accurate winter predictions[J].Geophys Res Lett,38(21):759-775.
Fletcher C G,Hardiman S C,Kushner P J,et al.,2009.The dynamical response to snow cover perturbations in a large ensemble of atmospheric GCM integrations[J].J Climate,22(5):1208-1222.
Foster J,Owe M,Rango A,1983.Snow cover and temperature relationships in North America and Eurasia[J].J Climate Appl Meteor,22(3):460-469.
Francis J A,Chan W H,Leathers D J,et al.,2009.Winter Northern Hemisphere weather patterns remember summer Arctic sea-ice extent[J].Geophys Res Lett,36(7):157-163.
管成功,孙照渤,2002.秋季区域海冰面积异常与冬季大气环流及东亚区域气候的关系[J].南京气象学院学报,25(1):14-20.Guan C G,Sun Z B,2002.Relationship of east siberian autumn sea ice anomaly with winter atmospheric circulation and East Asia climate[J].J Nanjing Inst Meteor,25(1):14-20.(in Chinese).
Gong D Y,Ho C H,2004.Intra-seasonal variability of wintertime temperature over East Asia[J].Int J Climatol,24(2):131-144.
Gong G,Entekhabi D,Cohen J,2003.Modeled Northern Hemisphere winter climate response to realistic Siberian snow anomalies[J].J Climate,16(23):3917-3931.
Honda M,Inoue J,Yamane S,2009.Influence of low Arctic sea-ice minima on anomalously cold Eurasian winters[J].Geophys Res Lett,36(8):L08707.
黄菲,高聪晖,2012.东亚冬季气温的年际变化特征及其与海温和海冰异常的关系[J].中国海洋大学学报(自然科学版),42(9):7-14.Huang F,Gao C H,2012.Interannual variations of winter temperature in East Asia and their relationship with sea surface temperature and sea ice concentration[J].Periodical of Ocean University of China,42(9):7-14.(in Chinese).
Jolliffe I T,Stephenson D B,2011.Forecast verification[M].Chichester,UK:John Wiley & Sons Ltd.
李栋梁,王春学,2011.积雪分布及其对中国气候影响的研究进展[J].大气科学学报,34(5):627-636.Li D L,Wang C X,2011.Research progress of snow cover and its influence on China climate[J].Trans Atmos Sci,34(5):627-636.(in Chinese).
林振敏,施能,2004.北半球冬季大气环流遥相关型特征与我国区域气候[J].气象科技,32(5):333-337,342.Lin Z M,Shi N,2004.Characteristics of winter atmospheric teleconnection patterns in Northern Hemisphere and their effects on climate in China[J].Meteorological Science and Technology,32(5):333-337,342.(in Chinese).
Orsolini Y J,Kvamst? N G,2009.Role of Eurasian snow cover in wintertime circulation:decadal simulations forced with satellite observations[J].J Geophys Res,114(D19):D19108.
秦育婧,卢楚翰,2017.冬季欧亚大陆反气旋活动特征及其与中国气温的关系[J].大气科学学报,40(3):418-424.Qin Y J,Lu C H,2017.Characteristics of the anticyclone over Eurasia and its relationship with the winter temperature in China[J].Trans Atmos Sci,40(3):418-424.(in Chinese).
Saito K,Cohen J,Entekhabi D,2001.Evolution of atmospheric response to early-season Eurasian snow cover anomalies[J].Mon Wea Rev,129(11):2746-2760.
施宁,张乐英,2013.冬季平流层北极涛动对江南气温的影响[J].大气科学学报,36(5):604-610.Shi N,Zhang L Y,2013.Influences of Arctic Oscillation on surface air temperature over the South Yangtze River Regions[J].Trans Atmos Sci,36(5):604-610.(in Chinese).
谭晶,蔡怡,张海东,等,2016.2012/2013年冬季中国气温异常成因分析[J].大气科学学报,39(3):361-369.Tan J,Cai Y,Zhang H D,et al.,2016.Analysis of the cause of the 2012/2013 winter temperature anomaly in China[J].Trans Atmos Sci,39(3):361-369.(in Chinese).
Thompson D W J,Wallace J M,2000.Annular modes in the extratropical circulation,Part Ⅰ:month-to-moth variability[J].J Climate,13(5):1000-1016.
von Storch H,Zwiers F,2002.Statistical analysis in climate research[M].Cambridge:Cambridge University Press.
王嘉,郭裕福,2004.北半球海冰强迫作用下大气可预报性研究[J].应用气象学报,15(3):291-305.Wang J,Guo Y F,2004.Assessing potential predictability associated with boreal sea ice with an AGCM[J].J Appl Meteor Sci,15(3):291-305.(in Chinese).
Wu B Y,Su J Z,Zhang R H,2011a.Effects of autumn-winter Arctic sea ice on winter Siberian High[J].Chin Sci Bull,56(30):3220.
Wu Q G,Straus D M,2004.AO,COWL,and observed climate trends[J].J Climate,17(11):2139-2156.
Wu Q G,Zhang X D,2010.Observed forcing-feedback processes between Northern Hemisphere atmospheric circulation and Arctic sea ice coverage[J].J Geophys Res,115(D14):D14119.
Wu Q G,Hu H B,Zhang L J,2011b.Observed influences of Autumn-Early winter eurasian snow cover anomalies on the hemispheric PNA-like variability in winter[J].J Climate,24(7):2017-2023.
肖晓,陈文,范广洲,等,2016.20世纪90年代末东亚冬季风年代际变化的外强迫因子分析[J].气候与环境研究,21(2):197-209.Xiao X,Chen W,Fan G Z,et al.,2016.Possible external forcing factors for the interdecadal change in the east Asian winter monsoon around the late 1990s[J].Climatic Environ Res,21(2):197-209.(in Chinese).
谢永坤,刘玉芝,黄建平,等,2014.秋季北极海冰对中国冬季气温的影响[J].气象学报,72(4):703-710.Xie Y K,Liu Y Z,Huang J P,et al.,2014.The influence of the autumn Arctic sea ice on winter air temperature in China[J].Acta Meteorologica Sinica,72(4):703-710.(in Chinese).
杨柳妮,2013.东亚冬季气温与中高纬大气环流和外强迫异常的联系[D].北京:中国气象科学研究院.Yang L N,2013.East Asian winter air temperature and its association with the mid-high latitude atmosphere circulation anomalies and the external forcing[D].Beijing:Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences.(in Chinese).
杨修群,谢倩,黄士松,1994.北极冰异常对亚洲夏季风影响的数值模拟[J].海洋学报,16(5):34-40.Yang X Q,Xie Q,Huang S S,1994.Numerical simulation of the influence of Arctic sea ice anomalies on the Asian monsoon in summer[J].Acta Oceanologica Sinica,16(5):34-40.(in Chinese).
张若楠,武炳义,2011.北半球大气对春季北极海冰异常响应的数值模拟[J].大气科学,35(5):847-862.Zhang R N,Wu B Y,2011.The Northern Hemisphere atmospheric response to spring Arctic sea ice anomalies in CAM3.0 model[J].Chin J Atmos Sci,35(5):847-862.(in Chinese).
张天宇,陈海山,孙照渤,2007.欧亚秋季雪盖与北半球冬季大气环流的联系[J].地理学报,62(7):728-741.Zhang T Y,Chen H S,Sun Z B,2007.The relationship between autumn-time Eurasian snow cover and winter-time NH circulation[J].Acta Geogr Sin,62(7):728-741.(in Chinese).