我国矿业对澳大利亚直接投资景气监测及预警研究
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摘要
为了掌握我国矿业对澳大利亚直接投资景气现状及未来趋势,尽早发现不利动向,便于企业及时调整经营策略,基于2007～2016年澳投资环境数据和我国矿业对其直接投资净额数据,运用时差分析、景气度测算、BP神经网络预测、3σ原理构建了投资景气监测及预警体系,对投资景气状态进行了计量、监控、预示、预测及预警。研究结果显示:澳投资环境中的先行指标能够对我国矿业在该国近期的直接投资景气状态起到良好预示及预测作用;我国矿业2007～2016年对澳整体投资水平较高且较稳定,大部分年份处于景气空间,只有2015年呈现萧条;经预测,2017年投资景气度将进入趋热区,投资存在过热倾向,对此状态进行了轻度预警。最后依据研究结果,为我国矿业对澳直接投资提出了相应建议。
An monitoring and early warning system for investment climate was established, based on the 2007～2016 Australian investment environment data and Chinese mining direct investment boom net data, by using time difference analysis, prosperity measurement, BP neural network prediction, 3σ principle, for providing the status quo and future trends of Chinese mining direct investment boom in Australia, so that Chinese mining companies could get to know the unfavorable signs as early as possible and timely adjust their business strategies. Then, this system was adopted to conduct the prosperity calculation, monitoring, prediction and early warning for investment climate. It was found that, the leading indicators of the Australian investment environment could play a good predictive role in Chinese mining companies′ recent direct investment. China′s mining companies′ total investments in Australia during 2007～2016 were stable and at a relatively high level. There were further rooms for prosperity of direct investment boom in most of years during this period time, only 2015 saw depression. It was predicted that the investment climate tended to be hot in 2017, and the investment was likely to become overheated, for which a gentle warning was given in advance. Finally, based on the research results, some corresponding investment proposals were put forward.
An monitoring and early warning system for investment climate was established, based on the 2007～2016 Australian investment environment data and Chinese mining direct investment boom net data, by using time difference analysis, prosperity measurement, BP neural network prediction, 3σ principle, for providing the status quo and future trends of Chinese mining direct investment boom in Australia, so that Chinese mining companies could get to know the unfavorable signs as early as possible and timely adjust their business strategies. Then, this system was adopted to conduct the prosperity calculation, monitoring, prediction and early warning for investment climate. It was found that, the leading indicators of the Australian investment environment could play a good predictive role in Chinese mining companies′ recent direct investment. China′s mining companies′ total investments in Australia during 2007～2016 were stable and at a relatively high level. There were further rooms for prosperity of direct investment boom in most of years during this period time, only 2015 saw depression. It was predicted that the investment climate tended to be hot in 2017, and the investment was likely to become overheated, for which a gentle warning was given in advance. Finally, based on the research results, some corresponding investment proposals were put forward.
引文
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[27] Jeffrey D Wilson.资源民族主义或自由主义?——解析澳大利亚对中国矿业投资的态度[J].黄飞翔,译.经济资料译丛,2013(1):66-79.
[2] 中国出口信用保险公司.2016全球投资风险分析报告[M].北京:中国财政经济出版社,2016.
[3] 中华人民共和国商务部.2014年度中国对外直接投资统计公报[M].北京:中国统计出版社,2014.
[4] 中华人民共和国商务部.2007年度中国对外直接投资统计公报[M].北京:中国统计出版社,2007.
[5] 杜奇华.国际投资[M].北京:清华大学出版社,2008.
[6] 胡萌,孙继国.经济景气评价[M].北京:中国标准出版社,2009.
[7] 郑明贵,赖亮光.矿业投资决策理论与方法[M].北京:冶金工业出版社,2011.
[8] 盛骤,谢式千,潘承毅.概率论与数理统计[M].北京:高等教育出版社,2008.
[9] 吴晓东.国际投资学[M].四川:西南财经大学出版社,2015.
[10] 中国人民银行武汉分行课题组.通货膨胀监控先行指标体系动态分析[J].金融研究,2005(6):47-55.
[11] Otto J.Criteria and Methodology for Assessing Mineral Investment Conditions.In:Mineral Investment Conditions in Selected Countries of the Asia-Pacific Region[M].New York:United Nations ST/ESCAP,1992:6-34.
[12] Otto J.A Global Survey of Mineral Company Investment Preferences.In:Mineral Investment Conditions in Selected Countries of the Asia-Pacific Region[M].New York:United Nations ST/ESCAP,1992:330-342.
[13] Behre Dolbear.2014 Ranking of Countries for Mining Investment:Where Not to Invest[EB/OL].http://www.dolbear.com/wp-content/uploads.2016-04-2/2018-08-18.
[14] 中国社会科学院世界经济与政治研究所.中国海外投资国家风险评级报告[M].北京:中国社会科学出版社,2018.
[15] 中华人民共和国商务部.2008年度中国对外直接投资统计公报[M].北京:中国统计出版社,2008.
[16] 中华人民共和国商务部.2009年度中国对外直接投资统计公报[M].北京:中国统计出版社,2009.
[17] 中华人民共和国商务部.2010年度中国对外直接投资统计公报[M].北京:中国统计出版社,2010.
[18] 中华人民共和国商务部.2011年度中国对外直接投资统计公报[M].北京:中国统计出版社,2011.
[19] 中华人民共和国商务部.2012年度中国对外直接投资统计公报[M].北京:中国统计出版社,2012.
[20] 中华人民共和国商务部.2013年度中国对外直接投资统计公报[M].北京:中国统计出版社,2013.
[21] 中华人民共和国商务部.2015年度中国对外直接投资统计公报[M].北京:中国统计出版社,2015.
[22] 中华人民共和国商务部.2016年度中国对外直接投资统计公报[M].北京:中国统计出版社,2016.
[23] 杨德平,刘喜华.经济预测与决策技术及MATLAB实现[M].北京:机械工业出版社,2016.
[24] 赵春明,郑飞虎,齐玮编.跨国公司与国际直接投资[M].北京:机械工业出版社,2012.
[25] 马秀岩,屈哲,卢洪升.投资经济学[M].大连:东北财经大学出版社,2007.
[26] 张建新.资源民族主义的全球化及其影响[J].社会科学,2014(2):19-27.
[27] Jeffrey D Wilson.资源民族主义或自由主义?——解析澳大利亚对中国矿业投资的态度[J].黄飞翔,译.经济资料译丛,2013(1):66-79.