怒江州斜坡地质灾害孕灾环境因素敏感性研究
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摘要
由于地质背景复杂、地理位置特殊以及气候特征独特,导致怒江州山地灾害频发,人居环境脆弱。选择海拔、坡度、河流、道路、地层岩性、断裂带、降雨量以及土地利用类型作为怒江州斜坡地质灾害孕灾环境因子。在地理信息系统(GIS)技术支持下,采用确定性系数(CF)分析了斜坡地质灾害易发敏感性,并通过敏感性指数(E)分析了各因子对斜坡地质灾害发生的影响程度,确定有利于斜坡地质灾发生的条件,绘制了斜坡地质灾害敏感性分区图。结果表明:研究区极低敏感区、低敏感区、中敏感区、高敏感区以及极高敏感区面积比例为19.95∶31.22∶23.84∶16.57∶8.2。采用国土部门提供的研究区历年发生的1 366个斜坡地质灾害点对研究结果进行了验证,仅占研究区总面积的24.99%的高、极高敏感区内,发生斜坡地质灾害1 171起,占总的斜坡地质灾害发生数的85.72%;斜坡地质灾害点的空间分布情况与孕灾环境敏感性分区具有良好的正相关性。同时采用2017年最新地质灾害数据对研究结果进行了验证,位于高、极高敏感区内的地质灾害数占总灾害数的90%,验证了本次研究结果的合理性。可为怒江州灾害的防灾减灾提供决策依据。
Due to the complex geological tectonic background,special geographical location and unique climate characteristics,frequent mountain hazards always exist in high mountain canyon area,and human settlements are vulnerable.In this paper,some factors were selected to research disaster-pregnant environment of slope geological hazards,including elevation,slope,river,road,lithology,fault zone,rainfall,and the land use type.Under the support of GIS,we used certainty factor(CF)model to analyze the slope geological hazards prone sensitivity and determined each factor′s impact degree according to the sensitivity-exponential(E)models,ascertained the beneficial conditions to occurrence of slope geological hazards and made the zoning map of slope geological hazards sensitivity in region.The results showed that the area ratio of extremely low sensitive zone,low sensitive zone,medium sensitive zone,high sensitive zone,extremely high sensitive zone in the study area was 19.95∶31.22∶23.84∶16.57∶8.2.A total of 1 366 slope geological hazards points were used to verify the research results,the high and extremely high sensitive zones were cover 24.99% of the study area,but the actual number of slope geological hazards was 1 171,and the number of slope geological hazards in those sensitive zones was85.72% of the total.The spatial distribution of slope geological disaster sites has a positive correlation with the sensitive zone.And the latest geological disasters data of 2017 were used to verify the research result.The number of geological disasters in high and extremely high sensitive areas accounted for 90% of the totalnumber.All disasters have verified the rationality of the results and the results can provide a basis decisionmaking for disaster prevention and mitigation of disasters in Nujiang Prefecture.
Due to the complex geological tectonic background,special geographical location and unique climate characteristics,frequent mountain hazards always exist in high mountain canyon area,and human settlements are vulnerable.In this paper,some factors were selected to research disaster-pregnant environment of slope geological hazards,including elevation,slope,river,road,lithology,fault zone,rainfall,and the land use type.Under the support of GIS,we used certainty factor(CF)model to analyze the slope geological hazards prone sensitivity and determined each factor′s impact degree according to the sensitivity-exponential(E)models,ascertained the beneficial conditions to occurrence of slope geological hazards and made the zoning map of slope geological hazards sensitivity in region.The results showed that the area ratio of extremely low sensitive zone,low sensitive zone,medium sensitive zone,high sensitive zone,extremely high sensitive zone in the study area was 19.95∶31.22∶23.84∶16.57∶8.2.A total of 1 366 slope geological hazards points were used to verify the research results,the high and extremely high sensitive zones were cover 24.99% of the study area,but the actual number of slope geological hazards was 1 171,and the number of slope geological hazards in those sensitive zones was85.72% of the total.The spatial distribution of slope geological disaster sites has a positive correlation with the sensitive zone.And the latest geological disasters data of 2017 were used to verify the research result.The number of geological disasters in high and extremely high sensitive areas accounted for 90% of the totalnumber.All disasters have verified the rationality of the results and the results can provide a basis decisionmaking for disaster prevention and mitigation of disasters in Nujiang Prefecture.
引文
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[2]Raghuvanshi T K,Ibrahim J,Ayalew D.Slope stability susceptibility evaluation parameter(SSEP)rating scheme-An approach for landslide hazard zonation[J].Journal of African Earth Sciences,2014,99:595-612.
[3]Althuwaynee O F,Pradhan B,Park H J,et al.A novel ensemble decision tree-based CHi-squared Automatic Interaction Detection(CHAID)and multivariate logistic regression models in landslide susceptibility mapping[J].Landslides,2014,11(6):1063-1078.
[4]陈曦炜,裴志远,王飞.基于GIS的贫困地区降雨诱发型地质灾害风险评估:以湖北省恩施州为例[J].地球信息科学学报,2016,18(3):343-352.
[5]庆丰,熊木齐,赵岩,等.人类活动对地质灾害的影响:以甘肃省武都区为例[J].兰州大学学报:自科科学版,2015,51(6):894-897.
[6]关凤峻,沈伟志.全国地质灾害灾情分析与防治研究[J].水文地质工程地质,2016,43(2):7-10.
[7]刘毅飞,王欣凯,蔡廷禄,等.福建海坛岛地质灾害特征及风险评价[J].灾害学,2016,31(4):122-127.
[8]唐川,马国超.基于地貌单元的小区域地质灾害易发性分区方法研究[J].地理科学,2015,35(1):91-98.
[9]Kavzoglu T,Sahin E K,Colkesen I.An assessment of multivariate and bivariate approaches in landslide susceptibility mapping:a case study of Duzkoy district[J].Natural Hazards,2015,76(1):471-496.
[10]崔鹏.中国山地灾害研究进展与未来应关注的科学问题[J].地理科学进展,2014,33(2):145-152.
[11]谈树成,金艳珠,冯龙,等.基于RIA的WebGIS斜坡地质灾害气象预报预警信息系统的设计与实现:以怒江为例[J].地球学报,2014,35(1):119-125.
[12]Wei F,Gao K,Hu K,et al.Relationships between debris flows and earth surface factors in Southwest China[J].Environmental Geology,2008,55(3):619-627.
[13]王志恒,胡卓玮,赵文吉,等.基于确定性系数概率模型的降雨型滑坡孕灾环境因子敏感性分析:以四川省低山丘陵区为例[J].灾害学,2014,29(2):109-115.
[14]高应新.怒江土壤[M].昆明:云南大学出版社,1991.