基于Shapley值的高层建筑火灾安全灰色聚类评价
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摘要
高层建筑火灾安全评价指标具有动态变化、非线性、非可加性和灰色性等特点,致使管理人员难以对高层建筑火灾安全作出合理判断。为科学、合理地对高层建筑火灾安全进行评价,提出基于Shapley值的高层建筑火灾安全灰色聚类评价方法。该方法先从建筑阻燃及构造、消防救援措施、自动灭火系统、自动报警系统、电气设备、安全疏散措施、火灾荷载、消防管理8个方面构建高层建筑火灾安全评价指标体系;然后运用Shapley值复合赋权方法量化分析不同指标组合对权重和目标的影响,并基于灰色白化权函数利用已知指标信息拟合出全部指标对目标的综合作用;最后将该方法运用于某高层建筑火灾的安全评价,评价结果表明该高层建筑火灾的安全性高。该研究可为高层建筑火灾安全评价提供一种新的方法。
With the features of the fire safety evaluation index of high-rise buildings as dynamic change,non-linearity,non-additivity and grey characteristics,it is difficult for managers to make a reasonable judgment on the fire safety of high-rise buildings.This paper applies the Shapley value and grey clustering method to the fire safety evaluation of high-rise buildings.Firstly,the paper constructs the fire safety evaluation index system of high-rise buildings from eight aspects:fire retardant,fire prevention and construction,fire rescue measures,automatic fire extinguishing system,automatic alarm system,electrical equipment,safety evacuation measures,fire load and management factors.Then,the paper uses the Shapley value to quantify the impact of different combination of indicators on weight and objectives.Furthermore,based on the grey whitening weight function,the paper fits the comprehensive effect of all the indexes on the target by the known index information.The paper applies the mothed to the fire safety evaluation of Yuecheng 2 residential area.The evaluation results shows that the building has high fire safety.The study proves the feasibility of the new research method.
With the features of the fire safety evaluation index of high-rise buildings as dynamic change,non-linearity,non-additivity and grey characteristics,it is difficult for managers to make a reasonable judgment on the fire safety of high-rise buildings.This paper applies the Shapley value and grey clustering method to the fire safety evaluation of high-rise buildings.Firstly,the paper constructs the fire safety evaluation index system of high-rise buildings from eight aspects:fire retardant,fire prevention and construction,fire rescue measures,automatic fire extinguishing system,automatic alarm system,electrical equipment,safety evacuation measures,fire load and management factors.Then,the paper uses the Shapley value to quantify the impact of different combination of indicators on weight and objectives.Furthermore,based on the grey whitening weight function,the paper fits the comprehensive effect of all the indexes on the target by the known index information.The paper applies the mothed to the fire safety evaluation of Yuecheng 2 residential area.The evaluation results shows that the building has high fire safety.The study proves the feasibility of the new research method.
引文
[1] 丁元春,翁发禄,唐敏康.基于突变理论的高层建筑火灾安全综合评价[J].建筑科学,2012,28(1):22-25.
[2] 王粟.基于灰色关联分析的高层建筑火灾风险评估[J].中国安全生产科学技术,2013,9(8):83-89.
[3] 张靖岩,臧桂丛,李引擎,等.基于模糊数学与集值统计的既有建筑火灾危险性评估模型[J].安全与环境工程,2012,19(5):82-84.
[4]丁敏,崔琳.基于灰色层次分析的高层建筑火灾隐患评估[J].消防科学与技术,2010,29(2):158-162.
[5] 王其磊,贾春雷,杨素芳,等.基于改进模糊层次分析法的超高层建筑消防安全评价[J].消防科学与技术,2016,35(3):416-418,422.
[6] 亢磊磊,王琼.基于DEA和灰色聚类的高层建筑火灾安全评价[J].工业安全与环保,2017,43(7):29-33,37.
[7] 李帆,赵金先,李龙.基于OWA算子赋权的高层建筑火灾安全模糊评价[J].青岛理工大学学报,2016,37(1):33-38.
[8] 牛发阳,段美栋,王建波,等.基于PCA-FPP-BP神经网络的高层建筑火灾安全评价[J].工业安全与环保,2016,42(7):26-29.
[9] 米红甫,肖国清,王文和,等.基于Fuzzy-DS模型的建筑火灾风险评估方法研究[J].中国安全生产科学技术,2018,14(6):187-192.
[10]Shapley L.A value for n-person games[M]//Kuhn H W,Tucker A W.Contributions to the Theory of Games II.Princeton,NJ:Princeton University Press,1953:307-317.
[11]田玉敏,蔡晶菁.层次分析法在商场火灾风险评价中的应用研究[J].灾害学,2009,24(2):91-94.
[12]米红甫,王文和,肖国清,等.基于FAHP的高层建筑火灾风险评价研究[J].武汉理工大学学报(信息与管理工程版),2017,39(2):148-152.
[13]余磊,李波.基于熵权的未确知测度理论的高层建筑火灾危险性评价[J].安全与环境工程,2017,24(1):115-120.
[14]刘思峰,谢乃明.基于改进三角白化权函数的灰评估新方法[J].系统工程学报,2011,26(2):244-250.
[15]李龙,赵金先,李帆.基于熵法与灰色理论的地铁工程项目管理绩效评价[J].青岛理工大学学报,2014(3):50-55,60.
[2] 王粟.基于灰色关联分析的高层建筑火灾风险评估[J].中国安全生产科学技术,2013,9(8):83-89.
[3] 张靖岩,臧桂丛,李引擎,等.基于模糊数学与集值统计的既有建筑火灾危险性评估模型[J].安全与环境工程,2012,19(5):82-84.
[4]丁敏,崔琳.基于灰色层次分析的高层建筑火灾隐患评估[J].消防科学与技术,2010,29(2):158-162.
[5] 王其磊,贾春雷,杨素芳,等.基于改进模糊层次分析法的超高层建筑消防安全评价[J].消防科学与技术,2016,35(3):416-418,422.
[6] 亢磊磊,王琼.基于DEA和灰色聚类的高层建筑火灾安全评价[J].工业安全与环保,2017,43(7):29-33,37.
[7] 李帆,赵金先,李龙.基于OWA算子赋权的高层建筑火灾安全模糊评价[J].青岛理工大学学报,2016,37(1):33-38.
[8] 牛发阳,段美栋,王建波,等.基于PCA-FPP-BP神经网络的高层建筑火灾安全评价[J].工业安全与环保,2016,42(7):26-29.
[9] 米红甫,肖国清,王文和,等.基于Fuzzy-DS模型的建筑火灾风险评估方法研究[J].中国安全生产科学技术,2018,14(6):187-192.
[10]Shapley L.A value for n-person games[M]//Kuhn H W,Tucker A W.Contributions to the Theory of Games II.Princeton,NJ:Princeton University Press,1953:307-317.
[11]田玉敏,蔡晶菁.层次分析法在商场火灾风险评价中的应用研究[J].灾害学,2009,24(2):91-94.
[12]米红甫,王文和,肖国清,等.基于FAHP的高层建筑火灾风险评价研究[J].武汉理工大学学报(信息与管理工程版),2017,39(2):148-152.
[13]余磊,李波.基于熵权的未确知测度理论的高层建筑火灾危险性评价[J].安全与环境工程,2017,24(1):115-120.
[14]刘思峰,谢乃明.基于改进三角白化权函数的灰评估新方法[J].系统工程学报,2011,26(2):244-250.
[15]李龙,赵金先,李帆.基于熵法与灰色理论的地铁工程项目管理绩效评价[J].青岛理工大学学报,2014(3):50-55,60.