考虑平纵组合的事故预测模型在双车道公路线形安全分析中的应用
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摘要
为研究平纵组合对双车道公路事故发生率的影响,将平纵线形划分为10种基本组合模式,以国外学者建立的考虑平纵组合的事故预测模型为工具,研究了一段双车道公路试验路沿线事故修正系数CMF分布情况。研究表明,双车道公路中,平曲线和竖曲线组合这种"双曲线"组合路段,较其他路段具有更高的事故发生率;"双曲线"组合中,又以平曲线与I型凹曲线组合事故发生率最高;我国采用运行速度协调性评价方法会出现低估线形组合路段安全等级的情况,有必要运用本文所述的线形组合事故预测模型对线形组合路段进行补充分析工作。
In order to study the influence of horizontal and vertical combination on the accident rate of two-lane highway,the horizontal and vertical alignment is divided into ten basic combination models.Then,the distribution of accident correction coefficient(CMF)along a two-lane highway is studied with the accident prediction model considering horizontal and vertical combination established by foreign scholars.The study shows that the combination of horizontal curve and vertical curve has a higher accident rate than other sections in the two-lane highway.Among the ten combination models mentioned above,the combination of horizontal curve and type I concave curve has the highest incidence of accidents.In China,the evaluation method of running speed will underestimate the safety level of alignment combination sections.Therefore,it is necessary to carry out supplementary analysis using the accident prediction model considering alignment combination as described in this paper.
In order to study the influence of horizontal and vertical combination on the accident rate of two-lane highway,the horizontal and vertical alignment is divided into ten basic combination models.Then,the distribution of accident correction coefficient(CMF)along a two-lane highway is studied with the accident prediction model considering horizontal and vertical combination established by foreign scholars.The study shows that the combination of horizontal curve and vertical curve has a higher accident rate than other sections in the two-lane highway.Among the ten combination models mentioned above,the combination of horizontal curve and type I concave curve has the highest incidence of accidents.In China,the evaluation method of running speed will underestimate the safety level of alignment combination sections.Therefore,it is necessary to carry out supplementary analysis using the accident prediction model considering alignment combination as described in this paper.
引文
[1]梁夏,郭忠印,方守恩.道路线形与道路安全性关系的统计分析[J].同济大学学报,2002,30(2):203-206
[2]王华荣,孙小端,贺玉龙,等.山区双车道公路尾随相撞事故与道路线形的关系[J].北京工业大学学报,2010,36(9):1236-1240
[3]Matthew G Karlaftis,Ioannis Golias.Effects of road geometry and traffic volumes on rural roadway accident rates[J].Accident Analysis and Prevention,2002,34:357-365
[4]Salvatore Cafisoa,Alessandro Di Grazianoa,Giacomo Di Silvestro,et al.Development of comprehensive accident models for two-lane rural highways using exposure,geometry,consistency and context variables[J].Accident Analysis and Prevention,2010,42:1072-1079
[5]American Association of State Highway and Transportation Officials(AASHTO).Highway Safety Manual[M].Washington,DC.:AASHTO,2010
[6]高建平,郭忠印.基于运行车速的公路线形设计质量评价[J].同济大学学报:自然科学版,2004,32(7):906-911
[7]阎莹,张迎,李庚凭,张鹏,王晓飞.基于速度特征指标的高速公路线形一致性综合评价[J].安全与环境学报,2017,17(3):835-839.
[8]王雪松,刘姣,吴杏薇.山区高速公路相邻组合路段设计安全评估[J].同济大学学报:自然科学版,2016,44(11):1681-1686.
[9]P Misaghi,Y Hassan.Modeling Operating Speed and Speed Differential on Two-Lane Rural Roads[J].Journal of Transportation Engineering,2005,131(6):408-418.
[10]Alfonso Montella,Lella Liana Imbriani.Safety performance functions incorporating design consistency variables[J].Accident Analysis and Prevention,2015,74:133-144
[11]JTG B05-2015公路项目安全性评价规范[S].
[12]Karin M Bauer,Douglas W Harwood.Safety Effects of Horizontal Curve and Grade Combinations on Rural Two-Lane Highways[C]//Transportation Research Board.92th Annual Meeting of the Transportation Research Board.Washington,D.C.:Transportation Research Board,2013
[2]王华荣,孙小端,贺玉龙,等.山区双车道公路尾随相撞事故与道路线形的关系[J].北京工业大学学报,2010,36(9):1236-1240
[3]Matthew G Karlaftis,Ioannis Golias.Effects of road geometry and traffic volumes on rural roadway accident rates[J].Accident Analysis and Prevention,2002,34:357-365
[4]Salvatore Cafisoa,Alessandro Di Grazianoa,Giacomo Di Silvestro,et al.Development of comprehensive accident models for two-lane rural highways using exposure,geometry,consistency and context variables[J].Accident Analysis and Prevention,2010,42:1072-1079
[5]American Association of State Highway and Transportation Officials(AASHTO).Highway Safety Manual[M].Washington,DC.:AASHTO,2010
[6]高建平,郭忠印.基于运行车速的公路线形设计质量评价[J].同济大学学报:自然科学版,2004,32(7):906-911
[7]阎莹,张迎,李庚凭,张鹏,王晓飞.基于速度特征指标的高速公路线形一致性综合评价[J].安全与环境学报,2017,17(3):835-839.
[8]王雪松,刘姣,吴杏薇.山区高速公路相邻组合路段设计安全评估[J].同济大学学报:自然科学版,2016,44(11):1681-1686.
[9]P Misaghi,Y Hassan.Modeling Operating Speed and Speed Differential on Two-Lane Rural Roads[J].Journal of Transportation Engineering,2005,131(6):408-418.
[10]Alfonso Montella,Lella Liana Imbriani.Safety performance functions incorporating design consistency variables[J].Accident Analysis and Prevention,2015,74:133-144
[11]JTG B05-2015公路项目安全性评价规范[S].
[12]Karin M Bauer,Douglas W Harwood.Safety Effects of Horizontal Curve and Grade Combinations on Rural Two-Lane Highways[C]//Transportation Research Board.92th Annual Meeting of the Transportation Research Board.Washington,D.C.:Transportation Research Board,2013