中国粮食供给态势及其区域差异比较研究
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摘要
基于我国1988—2017年粮食供给相关数据,设定一个动态评估标准,运用固定效应模型,研究粮食供给能力区域差距问题。研究发现中国粮食供给能力区域差距明显,主产区粮食供给能力处于较高水平,非主产区变化不大;东部地区最差,中部地区优势日益明显,西部个别地区发展较快,但是整体速度缓慢;向中、西部加速聚集,向欠发达地区和非农业优势地区分散转移的趋势明显;差异造成粮食减产足以为1569万人,提供每年400kg/人的粮食,导致宏观粮食供给能力的降低;种植面积、粮食单产水平、涉粮有效灌溉面积和机械总动力能够促进粮食供给能力的提升,涉粮化肥施用量和农村劳动力数量指标则呈负向效用。
The criteria for dynamically assessing food production is established. It is utilized to analyze the regional gap of China's food supply capability by employing a fixed effect model and estimating China's per capita food supply(PCFS) in 1988-2017 at different scales. It shows a significant gap in food production in China. The food supply capability in the major areas maintains at a relatively high level. Meanwhile, the variation is negligible in the minor areas. In sharp contrast to the regional economic development, the food supply capability in the eastern areas is the worst. However, it shows a growing and distinct advantage in the central areas and some of the western areas. China's food production is accelerating to aggregate to the provinces in central and western areas, and decentralized transferring to the undeveloped and non-agricultural dominant areas. The regional gap leads to food reduction supposed to be affordable for the living of 15.69 million people with an annual per capita food supply of 400 kg and leading to a declined macro food supply capability. Additionally, cultivated area, food per unit yield, food-related effective irrigated area and total mechanical power have positive effects on improving food supply capability. On the contrary, the amount of food-related chemical fertilizer and the indicator of agricultural practitioner show negative effects.
The criteria for dynamically assessing food production is established. It is utilized to analyze the regional gap of China's food supply capability by employing a fixed effect model and estimating China's per capita food supply(PCFS) in 1988-2017 at different scales. It shows a significant gap in food production in China. The food supply capability in the major areas maintains at a relatively high level. Meanwhile, the variation is negligible in the minor areas. In sharp contrast to the regional economic development, the food supply capability in the eastern areas is the worst. However, it shows a growing and distinct advantage in the central areas and some of the western areas. China's food production is accelerating to aggregate to the provinces in central and western areas, and decentralized transferring to the undeveloped and non-agricultural dominant areas. The regional gap leads to food reduction supposed to be affordable for the living of 15.69 million people with an annual per capita food supply of 400 kg and leading to a declined macro food supply capability. Additionally, cultivated area, food per unit yield, food-related effective irrigated area and total mechanical power have positive effects on improving food supply capability. On the contrary, the amount of food-related chemical fertilizer and the indicator of agricultural practitioner show negative effects.
引文
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[2] 张落成.我国粮食生产布局变化特点及其成因分析[J].长江流域资源与环境,2000,9(2):221-228.
[3] 高帆.我国粮食生产的地区变化:1978～2003年[J].管理世界,2005(9):70-78+87.
[4] 吴玲,刘腾谣.我国粮食生产区域变化对粮食主产区影响效应分析——以黑龙江省为例[J].中国农业资源与区划,2016(8):116-123.
[5] 陈秧分,李先德.中国粮食产量变化的时空格局与影响因素[J].农业工程学报,2013,29(20):1-10.
[6] 许云霖,石培基,李佳芳,王永男,周文霞.河西走廊县域人均粮食占有量的时空演变与驱动力分析[J].中国农业资源与区划,2017,38(1):101-109+198.
[7] 潘竟虎,张建辉,胡艳兴.近20a来甘肃省县域人均粮食占有量时空格局及其驱动力研究[J].自然资源学报,2016,31(1):124-134.
[8] 张利国,陈苏.中国人均粮食占有量时空演变及驱动因素[J].经济地理,2015,35(3):171-177.
[9] 高军波,谢文全,韩勇,张永显,陈建华.1990～2013年河南省县域人口、经济和粮食生产重心的迁移轨迹与耦合特征——兼议与社会剥夺的关系[J].地理科学,2018,38(6):919-926.
[10] 李亚婷,潘少奇.1990—2015年我国人均粮食差异变化特征[J].安徽农业科学,2018,46(5):218-222.
[11] 陈玲玲,林振山,郭杰,原艳梅.基于EMD的中国粮食安全保障研究.中国农业科学,2009,42(1):180-188.
[12] 封志明.中国未来人口发展的粮食安全与耕地保障.人口研究,2007,31(2):15-29.
[13] 邓宗兵,封永刚,张俊亮,等.中国粮食生产空间布局变迁的特征分析[J].经济地理,2013,33(5):117-123.
[14] 贺一梅,杨子生.基于粮食安全的区域人均粮食需求量分析.经济理论研究,2008(7):6-8.
[15] 程国强,陈良彪.中国粮食需求的长期趋势.中国农村观察,1998(3):1-5.
[16] 马永欢,牛文元.基于粮食安全的中国粮食需求预测与耕地资源配置研究.中国软科学,2009(3):11-16.
[17] 陈百明.未来中国的农业资源综合生产能力与食物保障[J].地理研究,2002,21(3):294-304.
[18] 马晓河,蓝海涛.中国粮食综合生产能力与粮食安全[M].经济科学出版社,2008.
[19] 朱梅.海河流域农业非点源污染负荷估算与评价研究[D].中国农业科学院,2011.
[20] 范东君.我国农村劳动力流出对粮食生产的可持续影响——基于不同区域面板数据考察[J].现代财经(天津财经大学学报),2013(6):57-69.
[21] Shen Y ,Li S ,Chen Y ,et al.Estimation of regional irrigation water requirement and water supply risk in the arid region of Northwestern China 1989–2010[J].Agricultural Water Management,2013,128(1):55-64.
[22] Deepak K Ray,Navin Ramankutty,Nathaniel D Mueller,et al.Recent patterns of crop yield growth and stagnation[J].Nature Communications,2012,3(1293):1293.
[23] 陈玉洁,张平宇,刘世薇,谭俊涛.东北西部粮食生产时空格局变化及优化布局研究[J].地理科学,2016,36(9):1397-1407.
[24] Xianmin W ,Feng Y ,Shaoxia Y ,et al.Land fragmentation,labor transfer and grain production of Chinese farmers:Based on the survey of Anhui province[J].Chinese Journal of Agricultural Resources & Regional Planning,2017(11):16-23.
[25] 潘竟虎,张建辉.中国县域人均粮食占有量的时空差异及驱动因素[J].长江流域资源与环境,2017,26(3):410-418.
[26] 刘影,肖池伟,李鹏,等.1978-2013年中国粮食主产区“粮-经”关系分析[J].资源科学,2015,37(10):1891-1901.
[27] Heilig G K ,Fischer G ,Velthuizen H V .Can China feed itself?[J].International Journal of Sustainable Development & World Ecology,2000,7(3):153-172.
[28] Suweis S,Carr J A,Maritan A ,et al.Resilience and reactivity of global food security[J].Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences,2015,112(22):6902-6907.
[29] Fader M ,Gerten D ,Krause M ,et al.Spatial decoupling of agricultural production and consumption:quantifying dependences of countries on food imports due to domestic land and water constraints[J].Environmental Research Letters,2013,8(1):014046.