基于惩罚型变权的城市可持续发展动态预警——以内蒙古资源型城市包头为例
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摘要
城市可持续发展预警对城市有效预防危机发生和实现预先调控意义重大。通过在静态权评价基础上引入变权理论构建惩罚型变权模型,对超过预警界限的指标权重做出局部调整以突出个别指标的明显变化,使结果更符合城市可持续发展预警的动态性,更加贴合实际;通过灰色预测GM(1,1)模型对未来警情进行合理预测并判断预警级别;通过制约因子模型判断制约因素使改进方向更加有针对性。研究结果表明:(1)基于惩罚型变权的预警模型满足了对包头市可持续发展的动态预警要求,预警结果较为契合实际;(2)包头市2007—2016年预警等级由"中警"演变为"轻警",可持续发展水平整体呈良好的上升态势;通过预测2017—2019年包头市可持续发展预警等级将由"轻警"变为"无警";(3)未来影响包头市可持续发展的最大制约因素为环境安全与资源供给子系统。
The early warning of urban sustainable development is of great significance for the city to effectively prevent the occurrence of crisis and achieve pre-regulation.By introducing variable weight theory on the basis of static weight evaluation,a variable weight model is constructed to make partial adjustment to the index weight exceeding the early warning limit so as to highlight the obvious changes of individual indicators,making the results more consistent with the dynamic of the early warning of urban sustainable development and more practical.Through the gray prediction GM(1,1)model,the future warnings are reasonably predicted and the warning level is judged.Judging the constraints through the constraint factor model makes the direction of improvement more clear and targeted.The research results show that:(1)The early warning model based on penalty-type variable weight satisfies the dynamic early warning requirements for the sustainable development of Baotou City,and the early warning results are more realistic;(2)The pre-warning level of Baotou City from 2007 to 2016has evolved from " middle police" to "light police".The overall level of sustainable development has shown a good upward trend;by forecasting the warning level of sustainable development in Baotou City from 2017 to 2019 will be " light police" becomes "no police";(3)The biggest constraint to the sustainable development of Baotou City in the future is the environmental safety and resource supply subsystem.
The early warning of urban sustainable development is of great significance for the city to effectively prevent the occurrence of crisis and achieve pre-regulation.By introducing variable weight theory on the basis of static weight evaluation,a variable weight model is constructed to make partial adjustment to the index weight exceeding the early warning limit so as to highlight the obvious changes of individual indicators,making the results more consistent with the dynamic of the early warning of urban sustainable development and more practical.Through the gray prediction GM(1,1)model,the future warnings are reasonably predicted and the warning level is judged.Judging the constraints through the constraint factor model makes the direction of improvement more clear and targeted.The research results show that:(1)The early warning model based on penalty-type variable weight satisfies the dynamic early warning requirements for the sustainable development of Baotou City,and the early warning results are more realistic;(2)The pre-warning level of Baotou City from 2007 to 2016has evolved from " middle police" to "light police".The overall level of sustainable development has shown a good upward trend;by forecasting the warning level of sustainable development in Baotou City from 2017 to 2019 will be " light police" becomes "no police";(3)The biggest constraint to the sustainable development of Baotou City in the future is the environmental safety and resource supply subsystem.
引文
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[23]杨俊,廖和平,庄伟,等.基于惩罚型变权的低丘缓坡开发建设适宜性评价——以重庆市两江新区为例[J].西南大学学报:自然科学版,2016,38(8).
[2]李松志,董观志.城市可持续发展理论及其对规划实践的指导[J].城市问题,2006(7).
[3] Yigitcanlar T,Teriman S.Rethinking Sustainable Urban Development:Towards an Integrated Planning and Development Process[J].International Journal of Environmental Science&Technology,2015,12(1).
[4] Sofeska E.Relevant Factors in Sustainable Urban Development of Urban Planning Methodology and Implementation of Concepts for Sustainable Planning(Planning Documentation for the Master Plan Skopje 2001—2020)[J].Procedia Environmental Sciences,2016,34.
[5]王树义,郭少青.资源枯竭型城市可持续发展对策研究[J].中国软科学,2012(1).
[6]吴凡,苗韧.城市可持续发展能力评估体系构建研究[J].生态经济,2017,33(3).
[7]何砚,赵弘.京津冀城市可持续发展效率动态测评及其分解研究——基于超效率CCR-DEA模型和Malmquist指数的度量[J].经济问题探索,2017(11).
[8]何砚,赵弘.京津冀城市可持续发展效率收敛性及影响因素研究[J].当代经济管理,2018,40(2).
[9]海骏娇,辛晓睿,曾刚.中国城市环境可持续发展决策的影响机制研究[J].经济经纬,2018(3).
[10]Yang B,Xu T,Shi L.Analysis on Sustainable Urban Development Levels and Trends in China's Cities[J].Journal of Cleaner Production,2017,141.
[11]程广斌,龙文.丝绸之路经济带城市可持续发展能力及其影响因素——基于超效率DEA—面板Tobit模型的实证检验[J].华东经济管理,2017,31(1).
[12]杨莎莎.基于景气分析的环境-经济系统预警研究[D].大连:大连理工大学,2017.
[13]张利,陈影,王树涛,门明新,许皞.滨海快速城市化地区土地生态安全评价与预警——以曹妃甸新区为例[J].应用生态学报,2015,26(8).
[14]曹飞.丝绸之路经济带城市可持续发展能力测度、预警与提升对策[J].西安财经学院学报,2015,28(1).
[15]方创琳,王岩.中国城市脆弱性的综合测度与空间分异特征[J].地理学报,2015,70(2).
[16]宋敏,刘学敏.西北地区能源—环境—经济可持续发展预警研究——以陕西省为例[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2012,22(5).
[17]张路路,郑新奇,张春晓,吕永强.基于变权模型的唐山城市脆弱性演变预警分析[J].自然资源学报,2016,31(11).
[18]王雪姣,艾萍,丁青云.基于组合权重的模糊物元模型在水利现代化评价中的应用[J].三峡大学学报:自然科学版,2015,37(2).
[19]樊杰,王亚飞,汤青,周侃.全国资源环境承载能力监测预警(2014版)学术思路与总体技术流程[J].地理科学,2015,35(1).
[20]郭永奇.基于惩罚型变权的农地生态安全预警评价——以新疆生产建设兵团为例[J].地域研究与开发,2014,33(5).
[21]赵宏波,马延吉.基于变权—物元分析模型的老工业基地区域生态安全动态预警研究——以吉林省为例[J].生态学报,2014,34(16).
[22]刘辉,渠丽萍,魏超.基于惩罚型变权模型的土地生态安全评价及障碍因子分析——以鄂州市为例[J].湖北农业科学,2016,55(18).
[23]杨俊,廖和平,庄伟,等.基于惩罚型变权的低丘缓坡开发建设适宜性评价——以重庆市两江新区为例[J].西南大学学报:自然科学版,2016,38(8).