不同海拔高度农牧民气候变化及其影响感知差异分析
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摘要
本研究通过问卷调查山南市不同海拔高度的农牧民对气候变化及其影响的感知,并通过计算其相对感知强度,探究不同海拔高度农牧民气候变化及其影响的感知差异,并因地制宜地提出适应气候变化的措施。结果表明:(1)山南市绝大部分农牧民感知到气候变化,不同海拔高度的农牧民对本地气候变化的感知存在差异。农牧民对夏季升温、过去与现在气候对比方两方面,相对感知强度很高,而且基本随着海拔高度的升高而增强。这表明海拔高度是影响农牧民对气候变化感知一个重要因素。(2)不同海拔高度的农牧民一致认为可利用水源发生了变化,且随海拔升高,认为可利用水源减少的农牧民增多,变化的时间大致在2011年以后。这与国家气象信息中心数据显示的山南市降水量从2010年开始至今持续低于多年平均值相吻合。(3)政府应建立防灾减灾体系,拓展当地的产业格局,根据不同海拔村庄的气候环境制定相宜的适应计划,积极利用气候变化带来的潜在利益,减少气候变化带来的损失。
This study investigated the perceptions of farmers and herdsmen at different altitude in Shannan city on climate change and its impacts through questionnaires and explored the differences in perceptions on climate change and its impacts of farmers and herdsmen by calculating their relative perception intensity. What's more, some measures to adapt to climate change were proposed based on local conditions in this paper. The results showed that most farmers and herdsmen in Shannan city had been aware of climate change, but they had different views on local climate change at different altitudes. Farmers and herdsmen had a high degree of relative awareness of the temperature rise in summer and the climate changes before and now. This showed that the altitude was an important factor influencing farmers and herdsmen's perception of climate change. Farmers and herdsmen at different altitudes agreed that the available water source had changed. As the altitude increased, the number of farmers and herdsmen who believe that the available water source decreased. Additionally, the change in water source was roughly after 2011, which was consistent with the data from National Meteorological Information Center showing that the precipitation in Shannan had been consistently lower than the multiyear average since 2010. The government should establish a disaster prevention and mitigation system, expand the local industrial pattern and formulate appropriate adaptation plans according to the climate environment of villages at different altitudes, and make active use of the potential benefits of climate change to reduce the losses caused by climate change.
This study investigated the perceptions of farmers and herdsmen at different altitude in Shannan city on climate change and its impacts through questionnaires and explored the differences in perceptions on climate change and its impacts of farmers and herdsmen by calculating their relative perception intensity. What's more, some measures to adapt to climate change were proposed based on local conditions in this paper. The results showed that most farmers and herdsmen in Shannan city had been aware of climate change, but they had different views on local climate change at different altitudes. Farmers and herdsmen had a high degree of relative awareness of the temperature rise in summer and the climate changes before and now. This showed that the altitude was an important factor influencing farmers and herdsmen's perception of climate change. Farmers and herdsmen at different altitudes agreed that the available water source had changed. As the altitude increased, the number of farmers and herdsmen who believe that the available water source decreased. Additionally, the change in water source was roughly after 2011, which was consistent with the data from National Meteorological Information Center showing that the precipitation in Shannan had been consistently lower than the multiyear average since 2010. The government should establish a disaster prevention and mitigation system, expand the local industrial pattern and formulate appropriate adaptation plans according to the climate environment of villages at different altitudes, and make active use of the potential benefits of climate change to reduce the losses caused by climate change.
引文
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[14]王世金,李曼,谭春萍.山区居民对气候变化及其影响与适应的感知分析:以玉龙雪山地区为例[J].气候变化研究进展,2013,9(3):216-222.
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[19]郑然,李栋梁,蒋元春.全球变暖背景下青藏高原气温变化的新特征[J].高原气象,2015,34(6):1531-1539.
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[23]邓茂芝,王英巍,毛炜峄等.阿克苏河流域公众气候变化感知及适应措施选择的差异分析[J].干旱区研究,2012,29(1):17-26.
[24]周旗,郁耀闯.关中地区公众气候变化感知的时空变异[J].地理研究,2009,28(1):45-54.
[25]RANGWAL A I,MILLER J R.Climate Change in Mountains:A Review of Elevation-Dependent Warming and Its Possible Causes[J].Climatic Change,2012,114(3):527-547.
[26]AKTE R S,BENNETT J.Household Perceptions of Climate Change and Preferences for Mitigation Action:The Case of the Carbon Pollution Reduction Scheme in Australia[J].Climatic Change,2011,109(3):417-436.
[2]汪海欧,於琍,吕明辉等.胶州湾地区居民对气候变化的感知与适应研究[J].资源科学,2017,39(1):157-167.
[3]赵雪雁.农户对气候变化的感知与适应研究综述[J].应用生态学报2014,25(8):2440-2448.
[4]Deressa T T,Hassan R M,Ringler C,et al.Determinants of farmers'choice of adaptation methods to climate change in the Nile Basin of Ethiopia[J].Global Environmental Change,2009,19(2):248-255.
[5]Bohensky E L,Smajgl A,Brewer T.Patterns in householdlevel engagement with climate change in Indonesia[J].Nature Climate Change,2013,(3):348-351.
[6]张倩,孟慧新.气候变化影响下的社会脆弱性与贫困:国外研究综述[J].中国农业大学学报:社会科学版,2014,31(2):56-67.
[7]赵雪雁,薛冰.干旱区内陆河流域农户对水资源紧缺的感知及适应-以石羊河中下游为例[J].地理科学,2015,35(12):1622-1630.
[8]雒丽,赵雪雁,王亚茹等.高寒生态脆弱区农户对气候变化的感知-以甘南高原为例.生态学报,2017,37(2):593-605.
[9]侯向阳,韩颖.内蒙古典型地区牧户气候变化感知与适应的实证研究[J].地理研究,2011,30(10):1753-1764.
[10]王根绪,程根伟,刘巧等,全球变化下的山地表生环境过程:认知与挑战-中国科学院贡嘎山高山生态系统观测试验站建站30周年回顾与展望[J].山地学报,2017,35(5):605-621.
[11]田丹宇,周泽宇,付琳等.高原地区应对气候变化面临的形势和对策--以西藏自治区为例[J].中国经贸导刊(理论版),2017,(26):29-31.
[12]段安民,肖志祥,吴国雄.1979-2014年全球变暖背景下青藏高原气候变化特征[J].气候变化研究进展,2016,12(5):374-381.
[13]周尧治,曲扎,郭英春.雅鲁藏布江流域中游居民对气候变化的感知及适应[J].西藏研究,2014,(3):90-96.
[14]王世金,李曼,谭春萍.山区居民对气候变化及其影响与适应的感知分析:以玉龙雪山地区为例[J].气候变化研究进展,2013,9(3):216-222.
[15]侯磊,周尧治,任毅华.藏东南察隅河流域不同海拔居民对气候变化的感知[J].生态与农村环境学报,2017,33(6):491-498.
[16]郭连云,李保华,赵年武等.海南地区公众对气候变化及农作物播种期变化的感知差异分析[J].中国农学通报2014,30(26):225-230.
[17]李鹏.青藏高原植被枯黄期的时空变化及其对极端气候事件的响应[D].杨凌:西北农林科技大学,2017.
[18]《气候变化国家评估报告》编写委员会.第三次国家气候变化评估报告[M].北京:科学出版社,2014.
[19]郑然,李栋梁,蒋元春.全球变暖背景下青藏高原气温变化的新特征[J].高原气象,2015,34(6):1531-1539.
[20]Li Q X,Yang X S,Xu W H,etal.China experiencing the recent warming hiatus[J].Geophys Res Lett,2015.42(3):889-898.
[21]You Q L,Zhong M J,Kang S C.Rapid warming in the Tibetan Plateau from observations and CMIP5 models in recent decades[J].Int J Climate,2015.DOl:10.1002/joc.4520.
[22]郁耀闯,周旗,王长燕.陕北地区公众气候变化感知的时空变异[J].西北大学学报(自然科学版),2011,41(1):134-138.
[23]邓茂芝,王英巍,毛炜峄等.阿克苏河流域公众气候变化感知及适应措施选择的差异分析[J].干旱区研究,2012,29(1):17-26.
[24]周旗,郁耀闯.关中地区公众气候变化感知的时空变异[J].地理研究,2009,28(1):45-54.
[25]RANGWAL A I,MILLER J R.Climate Change in Mountains:A Review of Elevation-Dependent Warming and Its Possible Causes[J].Climatic Change,2012,114(3):527-547.
[26]AKTE R S,BENNETT J.Household Perceptions of Climate Change and Preferences for Mitigation Action:The Case of the Carbon Pollution Reduction Scheme in Australia[J].Climatic Change,2011,109(3):417-436.