新疆冰湖溃决灾害风险评价与预警
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摘要
受全球气候变暖及人类活动的影响,冰湖溃决灾害已成为当前新疆地区经济可持续发展中的突出问题之一。利用1977(MSS)～2015年Landsat影像、2015年的Google Earth高精度影像和DEM等数据解译获取新疆冰湖的时空分布信息,并选取导致冰湖溃决的主要影响因子,运用MATLAB和SPSS等软件,利用西北地区已有冰湖数据作为训练样本拟合评价方程,建立了新疆冰湖溃决风险评价模型和基于BP神经网络算法的预警模型。结果表明:(1)1977年以来新疆三大山系中冰湖的数量和面积不断增加,冰湖数量上增加了62.0%,冰湖面积增长率为0.98 km~2·a~(-1),但增长率呈现逐年减小的趋势;(2)对分布在新疆范围内的17个典型冰湖溃决风险评价的结果显示:有5个冰湖为高危风险、5个冰湖为中等风险、7个冰湖为低等风险,新疆大约29%的冰湖需要进行实时监测。
Affected by the global warming and human activities,the glacial lake outburst disasters have become one of the prominent problems of the economy sustainable development in some areas of Xinjiang. Using 1977( MSS) ～ 2015 Landsat images,2015 Google Earth high precision image and Xinjiang 30 m digital elevation model data to obtain the spatial and temporal distribution of ice lakes in Xinjiang,through the images and documents to extract main factors lead to glacial lake outburst. At the same time,using MATLAB and SPSS software,and the existing ice lakes data in the northwest was used as training samples to fit the evaluation equation,the Xinjiang glacier lake outburst risk assessment model and warning model based on BP neural network were established. The results showed these as follows.(1) Since 1977,the number and area of ice lakes in the three major mountains of Xinjiang have continuously increased,the number of ice lakes increased by 62. 0%,and the growth rate of the ice lake area is 0. 98 km~2·a~(-1),but the growth rate is decreasing year by year.(2) The results of the risk assessment of 17 typical ice lakes distributed in Xinjiang showed that 5 ice lakes were high level risk,5 ice lakes were medium risk,7 ice lakes were low risk,and about 29% of the ice lakes in Xinjiang were to be monitored in real time.
Affected by the global warming and human activities,the glacial lake outburst disasters have become one of the prominent problems of the economy sustainable development in some areas of Xinjiang. Using 1977( MSS) ～ 2015 Landsat images,2015 Google Earth high precision image and Xinjiang 30 m digital elevation model data to obtain the spatial and temporal distribution of ice lakes in Xinjiang,through the images and documents to extract main factors lead to glacial lake outburst. At the same time,using MATLAB and SPSS software,and the existing ice lakes data in the northwest was used as training samples to fit the evaluation equation,the Xinjiang glacier lake outburst risk assessment model and warning model based on BP neural network were established. The results showed these as follows.(1) Since 1977,the number and area of ice lakes in the three major mountains of Xinjiang have continuously increased,the number of ice lakes increased by 62. 0%,and the growth rate of the ice lake area is 0. 98 km~2·a~(-1),but the growth rate is decreasing year by year.(2) The results of the risk assessment of 17 typical ice lakes distributed in Xinjiang showed that 5 ice lakes were high level risk,5 ice lakes were medium risk,7 ice lakes were low risk,and about 29% of the ice lakes in Xinjiang were to be monitored in real time.
引文
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13梁珊珊,闫世勇.基于合成孔径雷达影像估计慕士塔格峰地区冰川速度场.科学技术与工程,2014;14(23):140-145Liang Shanshan,Yan Shiyong.Glacier surface flow velocity field estimation using SAR images of Muztag Ata.Science Technology and Engineering,2014;14(23):140-145
14刘慧明,荀斌,董孝斌,等.新疆冰川消融对气候变化的响应及应对策略.生态经济,2010;(2):176-178Liu Huiming,Xun Bin,Dong Xiaobin,et al.The problems of water resource and corresponding measures caused by climate change and glacier melt in Xinjiang.Ecological Environment,2010;(2):176-178
15王宗太.新疆的冰川.干旱区地理,1991;(1):18-24Wang Zongtai.The glaciers in Xinjiang.Arid Land Geography,1991;(1):18-24
16杨金波,段文刚,王莉.西藏典型终碛湖溃决对下游工程的影响研究.黑龙江大学工程学报,2018;9(1):91-96Yang Jinbo,Duan Wengang,Wang Li.Impact on the downstream project of typical breaking final moraine lake in Tibet.Journal of Engineering of Heilongjiang University,2018;9(1):91-96
17黄亮,张佳佳,李勇,等.藏东南典型第四纪堆积阶地成因---以雪瓦卡平台为例.科学技术与工程,2018;18(6):39-46Huang Liang,Zhang Jiajia,Li Yong,et al.The typical Quaternary platform in southeastern Tibet plateau case of Xuewaka platform.Science Technology and Engineering,2018;18(6):39-46
18刘丽颖,官冬杰,杨清伟,等.基于人工神经网络的喀斯特地区水资源安全评价.水土保持通报,2017;37(2):207-214Liu Liying,Guan Dongjie,Yang Qingwei,et al.Assessment of water resources security in Karst area based on artificial neural network.Bulletin of Soil and Water Conservation,2017;37(2):207-214
19王红芳,康慕宁,邓正宏.BP神经网络在大气环境质量评价中的应用研究.科学技术与工程,2009;9(7):1997-2000Wang Hongfang,Kang Muning,Deng Zhenghong.BP neural network applied research in the air environment quality assessment.Science Technology and Engineering,2009;9(7):1997-2000
20丛沛桐,阎秀峰,张玉红,等.应用BP人工神经网络技术划分水土流失等级.水土保持学报,2000;(4):43-46,50Cong Peitong,Yan Xiufeng,Zhang Yuhong,et al.Dividing of soi and water loss grade with BP artificial neural network.Journal of Soi and Water Conservation,2000;(4):43-46,50
21石灵芝,邓启红,路婵,等.基于BP人工神经网络的大气颗粒物PM10质量浓度预测.中南大学学报(自然科学版),2012;43(5):1969-1974Shi Lingzhi,Deng Qihong,Lu Chan,et al.Prediction of PM10mass concentrations based on BP artificial neural network.Journal of Central South University(Science and Technology),2012;43(5):1969-1974
22张青,王学雷,张婷,等.基于BP神经网络的洪湖水质指标预测研究.湿地科学,2016;14(2):212-218Zhang Qing,Wang Xuelei,Zhang Ting,et al.Prediction of water quality index of Honghu lake based on back propagation neural network model.Wetland Science,2016;14(2):212-218
23陈晨,郑江华,刘永强,等.近20年中国阿尔泰山区冰川湖泊对区域气候变化响应的时空特征.地理研究,2015;34(2):270-284Chen Chen,Zheng Jianghua,Liu Yongqiang,et al.The response of glacial lakes in the Altay Mountains of China to climate change during 1992-2013.Geographical Research,2015;34(2):270-284
2 Gardelle J,Berthier E,Arnaud Y,et al.Region-wide glacier mass balances over the Pamir-Karakoram-Himalaya during 1999~2011.The Cryosphere Discussions,2013;7:975-1028
3刘晶晶,唐川,程尊兰,等.气温对西藏冰湖溃决事件的影响.吉林大学学报(地球科学版),2011;41(4):1121-1129Liu Jingjing,Tang Chuan,Cheng Zunlan,et al.Impact of temperature on glacier-lake outbursts in Tibet.Journal of Jilin University(Earth Science Edition),2011;41(4):1121-1129
4刘春玲,童立强,祁生文,等.喜马拉雅山地区冰川湖溃决灾害隐患遥感调查及影响因素分析.国土资源遥感,2016;28(3):110-115Liu Chunling,Tong Liqiang,Qi Shengwen,et al.Remote sensing investigation and influence factor analysis of glacier lake outburst potential in the Himalayas.Remote Sensing for Land&Resources,2016;28(3):110-115
5 Jacob T,Wahr J,Pfeffer T W,et al.Recent contributions of glaciers and ice caps to sea level rise.Nature,2012;482:514-518
6 Jansky B,Sobr M,Engel Z.Outburst flood hazard:Case studies from the Tien-Shan Mountains,Kyrgyzstan.Limnologica,2010;40:358-364
7赵万玉,陈晓清,刘建康,等.冰川终碛湖溃决-再生特征与机理.山地学报,2015;33(6):703-712Zhao Wanyu,Chen Xiaoqing,Liu Jiankang,et al.Outburst-regeneration characteristic and mechanism of glacier lake.Mountain Research,2015;33(6):703-712
8 Mckillop R J,Clague J J.Statistical,remote sensing-based approach for estimating the probability of catastrophic drainage from moraine dammed lakes in southwestern British Columbia.Global&Planetary Change,2007;56(1-2):153-171
9舒有锋.西藏喜马拉雅山地区冰碛湖溃决危险性评价及其演进数值模拟.长春:吉林大学,2011Shu Youfeng.Hazard assessment of moraine dammed lake outbursts in the himalayas,Tibet and the propagating numerical simulation.Changchun:Jilin University,2011
10庄树裕.西藏喜马拉雅山地区冰湖溃决非线性预测研究.长春:吉林大学,2010Zhuang Shuyu.Research on nonlinear prediction for glacial lake outbursts in the himalayas area,Tibet.Changchun:Jilin University,2010
11王欣,刘时银,姚晓军,等.我国喜马拉雅山区冰湖遥感调查与编目.地理学报,2010;65(1):29-36Wang Xin,Liu Shiyin,Yao Xiaojun,et al.Glacier lake investigation and inventory in the Chinese Himalaya based on the remote sensing data.Acta Geographica Sinica,2010;65(1):29-36
12李均力.青藏高原内陆湖泊变化的遥感制图.湖泊科学,2011;23(3):311-320Li Junli.Remotely sensed mapping of inland lake area changes in the Tibetan Plateau.Journal of Lake Sciences,2011;23(3):311-320
13梁珊珊,闫世勇.基于合成孔径雷达影像估计慕士塔格峰地区冰川速度场.科学技术与工程,2014;14(23):140-145Liang Shanshan,Yan Shiyong.Glacier surface flow velocity field estimation using SAR images of Muztag Ata.Science Technology and Engineering,2014;14(23):140-145
14刘慧明,荀斌,董孝斌,等.新疆冰川消融对气候变化的响应及应对策略.生态经济,2010;(2):176-178Liu Huiming,Xun Bin,Dong Xiaobin,et al.The problems of water resource and corresponding measures caused by climate change and glacier melt in Xinjiang.Ecological Environment,2010;(2):176-178
15王宗太.新疆的冰川.干旱区地理,1991;(1):18-24Wang Zongtai.The glaciers in Xinjiang.Arid Land Geography,1991;(1):18-24
16杨金波,段文刚,王莉.西藏典型终碛湖溃决对下游工程的影响研究.黑龙江大学工程学报,2018;9(1):91-96Yang Jinbo,Duan Wengang,Wang Li.Impact on the downstream project of typical breaking final moraine lake in Tibet.Journal of Engineering of Heilongjiang University,2018;9(1):91-96
17黄亮,张佳佳,李勇,等.藏东南典型第四纪堆积阶地成因---以雪瓦卡平台为例.科学技术与工程,2018;18(6):39-46Huang Liang,Zhang Jiajia,Li Yong,et al.The typical Quaternary platform in southeastern Tibet plateau case of Xuewaka platform.Science Technology and Engineering,2018;18(6):39-46
18刘丽颖,官冬杰,杨清伟,等.基于人工神经网络的喀斯特地区水资源安全评价.水土保持通报,2017;37(2):207-214Liu Liying,Guan Dongjie,Yang Qingwei,et al.Assessment of water resources security in Karst area based on artificial neural network.Bulletin of Soil and Water Conservation,2017;37(2):207-214
19王红芳,康慕宁,邓正宏.BP神经网络在大气环境质量评价中的应用研究.科学技术与工程,2009;9(7):1997-2000Wang Hongfang,Kang Muning,Deng Zhenghong.BP neural network applied research in the air environment quality assessment.Science Technology and Engineering,2009;9(7):1997-2000
20丛沛桐,阎秀峰,张玉红,等.应用BP人工神经网络技术划分水土流失等级.水土保持学报,2000;(4):43-46,50Cong Peitong,Yan Xiufeng,Zhang Yuhong,et al.Dividing of soi and water loss grade with BP artificial neural network.Journal of Soi and Water Conservation,2000;(4):43-46,50
21石灵芝,邓启红,路婵,等.基于BP人工神经网络的大气颗粒物PM10质量浓度预测.中南大学学报(自然科学版),2012;43(5):1969-1974Shi Lingzhi,Deng Qihong,Lu Chan,et al.Prediction of PM10mass concentrations based on BP artificial neural network.Journal of Central South University(Science and Technology),2012;43(5):1969-1974
22张青,王学雷,张婷,等.基于BP神经网络的洪湖水质指标预测研究.湿地科学,2016;14(2):212-218Zhang Qing,Wang Xuelei,Zhang Ting,et al.Prediction of water quality index of Honghu lake based on back propagation neural network model.Wetland Science,2016;14(2):212-218
23陈晨,郑江华,刘永强,等.近20年中国阿尔泰山区冰川湖泊对区域气候变化响应的时空特征.地理研究,2015;34(2):270-284Chen Chen,Zheng Jianghua,Liu Yongqiang,et al.The response of glacial lakes in the Altay Mountains of China to climate change during 1992-2013.Geographical Research,2015;34(2):270-284