耦合分布式水文模型的泥石流物理模型预报试验
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摘要
研究在泥石流物理模型中耦合分布式水文模型建立研究区域泥石流预报模型。模型利用潜势泥石流流域判识方法确定泥石流孕灾流域单元作为预报单元;采用GBHM分布式水文模型模拟泥石流发生的水文过程;基于无限边坡模型,利用安全系数判别坡面失稳过程;以流域径流和失稳土体耦合后的水土混合物密度作为泥石流预报标准实现区域泥石流预报。选取云南省作为区域泥石流预报试验区域,以2016年6月24日的云南强降水过程诱发的泥石流灾害为例,对该模型进行区域预报效果检验。结果表明,该预报模型成功预报出本次过程的三分之二泥石流灾害,具有较高的预报准确率和较强的适用性。
In this paper,a physically-based debris flow model,coupled with a distributed hydrological model,is developed for regional debris flow forecasting test.The debris flow basins,obtained by using potential debris flow basins identifying method,are taken as forecasting units.GBHM distributed hydrological model is applied for hydrological processes simulation during debris flow occurring.Based on the infinite slope model,the slope stability is determined by the safety factor.The density of water-soil mixture with basin runoff and unstable soil volume is applied for the regional debris flow forecasting.The model is implemented and evaluated in Yunnan province,where heavy rainfall triggered debris flow on 24 June 2016.Results show that the forecast model successfully predicts two-thirds of debris flow disasters in this process,and has a high accuracy of prediction and strong applicability.
In this paper,a physically-based debris flow model,coupled with a distributed hydrological model,is developed for regional debris flow forecasting test.The debris flow basins,obtained by using potential debris flow basins identifying method,are taken as forecasting units.GBHM distributed hydrological model is applied for hydrological processes simulation during debris flow occurring.Based on the infinite slope model,the slope stability is determined by the safety factor.The density of water-soil mixture with basin runoff and unstable soil volume is applied for the regional debris flow forecasting.The model is implemented and evaluated in Yunnan province,where heavy rainfall triggered debris flow on 24 June 2016.Results show that the forecast model successfully predicts two-thirds of debris flow disasters in this process,and has a high accuracy of prediction and strong applicability.
引文
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[26]魏义长,刘作新,康玲玲,等.土壤持水曲线van Genuchten模型求参的Matlab实现[J].土壤学报,2004,41(3):380-386
[27]康志成,李焯芬,马蔼乃,等.中国泥石流研究[M].北京:科学出版社,2004
[28]包红军,王莉莉,李致家,等.基于混合产流与二维运动波汇流分布式水文模型[J].水电能源科学,2016,34(11):1-4,21
[29]Bao H J,Wang L L,Zhang K,Li Z J.Application of a developed distributed hydrological model based on the mixed runoff generation model and 2D kinematic wave flow routing model for better flood forecasting[J].Atmospheric Science Letters,2017,18(7):284-293
[30]Land Data Assimilation Schemes(LDAS).Mapped Vegetation Parameters[EB/OL].[2015-07-12].http://ldas.gsfc.nasa.gov/LDAS8th/MAPPED.V EG/LDASmapveg.shtml
[31]包红军,李致家,黄小祥,等.基于分布式水文模型的无资料小流域山洪预报[J].暴雨灾害,2017,36(2):156-163
[32]包红军.基于EPS的水文与水力学相结合的洪水预报研究[D].南京:河海大学,2009
[33]包红军,王莉莉,沈学顺,等.气象水文耦合的洪水预报研究进展[J].气象,2016,42(9):1 045-1 057
[34]包红军,王莉莉,李致家,等.基于Holtan产流的分布式水文模型[J].河海大学学报自然科学版,2016,44(4):340-346
[35]叶金印,李致家,刘静,等.山洪灾害气象风险预警指标确定方法研究[J].暴雨灾害.2016,35(1):25-30
[2]陈晓清,崔鹏,韦方强.泥石流起动原型试验及预报方法探索[J].中国地质灾害与防治学报,2006,17(4):73-78
[3]崔鹏,高克昌,韦方强.泥石流预测预报研究进展[J].中国科学院院刊,2005,20(5):363-369
[4]李媛,曲雪妍,杨旭东,等.中国地质灾害时空分布规律及防范重点[J].中国地质灾害与防治学报,2013,24(4):71-78
[5]薛建军,徐晶,张芳华,等.区域性地质灾害气象预报方法研究[J].气象,2005,31(10):24-27
[6]国土资源部地质灾害应急技术指导中心.2014年度全国重大地质灾害事件与应急避险典型案例[M].北京:地质出版社,2015
[7]刘传正,刘艳辉.地质灾害区域预警原理与显式预警系统设计研究[J].水文地质工程地质,2007(6):109-115,125
[8]刘传正,刘艳辉,温铭生,等.中国地质灾害区域预警方法与应用[M].北京:地质出版社,2009
[9]Zhang Shaojie,Wei Fangqiang,et al.A Regional-Scale Method of Forecasting Debris Flow Events Based on Water-Soil Coupling Mechanism[J].J Mt Sci,2014,11(6):1531-1 542
[10]Caine N.The Rainfall Intensity-duration Control of Shallow Landslides and Debris Flows[J].Geografiska Annaler,Series A,Physical Geograpy,1980,62(1-2):23-27
[11]Campbell R H.Debris flows originating from soil slips during rainstorms in Southern California[J].Quarterly Journal of Engineering Geology&Hydrogeology,1974,7(4):339-349
[12]Cannon S H,Ellen S D.Rainfall Conditions for Abundant Debris Avalanches,San Francisco Bay region[J].California Geo.1985,38(12):267-272
[13]Bacchini M,Zannoni A.Relations between Rainfall and Triggering Debris-Flow:Case Study of Cancia(Dolomites,Northeastern Italy)[J].Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences,2003,3:71-79
[14]Pan H L,Huang J C,Wang R,et al.Rainfall Threshold Calculation Method for Debris Flow Pre-Warning in Data-Poor Areas[J].Journal of Earth Science,2013,24(5):854-862
[15]刘艳辉,刘传正,温铭生,等.中国地质灾害气象预警模型研究[J].工程地质学报,2015,23(4):738-746
[16]韦方强,汤家法,谢洪.钟敦伦.沟谷相结合的泥石流预报及其应用[J].山地学报,2004,22(3):321-325
[17]Iverson R M,La Husen R G.Dynamic Pore-Pressure Fluctuations in Rapidly Shearing Granular Materials[J].Science,1989,246(4 931):796-799
[18]Iverson R M,Reid M E,La Husen R G.Debris-Flow Mobilization from Landslides[J].Annu Rev Earth Planet,1997,25:85-138
[19]Berti M,Simoni A.Experimental Evidences and Numerical Modeling of Debris Flow Initiated by Channel Runoff[J].Landslides,2005,2:171-182
[20]Cui P.Study on condition and mechanisms of debris flow initiation by means of experiment[J].Chinese Science Bu Uetin,1992,37(9):759-763
[21]张万顺,乔飞,崔鹏,等.坡面泥石流起动模型研究[J].水土保持研究,2006,13(4):146-149
[22]张少杰,江玉红,杨红娟,等.基于水文过程的泥石流预报中前期有效降水量的确定方法[J].水科学进展,2015,26(1):34-43
[23]Yang D W,Herath S,Musiake K.A Hillslope-Based Hydrological Model Using Catchment Area and Width Function[J].Hyrological Sciences Journal,2002,47(1):231-243
[24]熊俊楠.基于遥感与GIS的精细化区域泥石流风险评估[D].北京:中国科学院大学,2013
[25]Fredlund D G,Rahardjo H.Soil Mechanics for Unsaturated Soils[M].New York:John Wiley&Sons Inc,1993:217-231
[26]魏义长,刘作新,康玲玲,等.土壤持水曲线van Genuchten模型求参的Matlab实现[J].土壤学报,2004,41(3):380-386
[27]康志成,李焯芬,马蔼乃,等.中国泥石流研究[M].北京:科学出版社,2004
[28]包红军,王莉莉,李致家,等.基于混合产流与二维运动波汇流分布式水文模型[J].水电能源科学,2016,34(11):1-4,21
[29]Bao H J,Wang L L,Zhang K,Li Z J.Application of a developed distributed hydrological model based on the mixed runoff generation model and 2D kinematic wave flow routing model for better flood forecasting[J].Atmospheric Science Letters,2017,18(7):284-293
[30]Land Data Assimilation Schemes(LDAS).Mapped Vegetation Parameters[EB/OL].[2015-07-12].http://ldas.gsfc.nasa.gov/LDAS8th/MAPPED.V EG/LDASmapveg.shtml
[31]包红军,李致家,黄小祥,等.基于分布式水文模型的无资料小流域山洪预报[J].暴雨灾害,2017,36(2):156-163
[32]包红军.基于EPS的水文与水力学相结合的洪水预报研究[D].南京:河海大学,2009
[33]包红军,王莉莉,沈学顺,等.气象水文耦合的洪水预报研究进展[J].气象,2016,42(9):1 045-1 057
[34]包红军,王莉莉,李致家,等.基于Holtan产流的分布式水文模型[J].河海大学学报自然科学版,2016,44(4):340-346
[35]叶金印,李致家,刘静,等.山洪灾害气象风险预警指标确定方法研究[J].暴雨灾害.2016,35(1):25-30