基于性能指标的战机成本估算核心参数建模
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摘要
参数估算法是当前武器装备成本估算的主要方法。TruePlanning软件作为国际主流的参数法装备成本估算软件,其核心参数是制造复杂度(Manufacturing Complexity)。由于该参数在武器装备发展早期无法准确获取,从而使得TruePlanning软件难以适用于新型武器装备发展的早期阶段。若能建立通过装备性能参数估算制造复杂度的模型,便能解决此问题。研究以美军战斗机/攻击机为对象,选取多个性能指标为初始变量,收集样本数据,并采用帽子矩阵法、外学生化残差和库克距离对原始数据进行诊断,确保数据真实可靠。最后通过逐步回归法筛选出最能体现制造复杂度特性的说明性变量,构建出针对于美军战斗机/攻击机的制造复杂度模型,为我国装备发展早期的费用估算工作开辟了新的思路。
Parameter estimation method is a major method for estimating the cost of armament. The core parameter of True Planning,the international mainstream cost estimation software by estimation of parameters,is Manufacturing Complexity. But It is difficult to apply True Planning in the early stages of newarmament development because the parameter cannot be accurately obtained at these stages. This problem can be solved through a model in which Manufacturing Complexity is estimated by armament performance parameters. Taking a US Fighter/Attacker as an example,several performance indicators were selected as the initial variables and sample data was also collected. Hat matrix,externally studentized residual and Cook's distance were used to diagnose the rawdata to ensure the validity of the data. Finally,the step-by-step regression method was used to select the descriptive variables which were most likely to reflect the characteristics of Manufacturing Complexity and build the Manufacturing Complexity model for US Fighter/Attack. This model provides a newway for estimating cost of the newarmament in the early stages of armament development.
Parameter estimation method is a major method for estimating the cost of armament. The core parameter of True Planning,the international mainstream cost estimation software by estimation of parameters,is Manufacturing Complexity. But It is difficult to apply True Planning in the early stages of newarmament development because the parameter cannot be accurately obtained at these stages. This problem can be solved through a model in which Manufacturing Complexity is estimated by armament performance parameters. Taking a US Fighter/Attacker as an example,several performance indicators were selected as the initial variables and sample data was also collected. Hat matrix,externally studentized residual and Cook's distance were used to diagnose the rawdata to ensure the validity of the data. Finally,the step-by-step regression method was used to select the descriptive variables which were most likely to reflect the characteristics of Manufacturing Complexity and build the Manufacturing Complexity model for US Fighter/Attack. This model provides a newway for estimating cost of the newarmament in the early stages of armament development.
引文
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[2]PRICE CORP.Parametric estimating handbook[G].New Jersey:PRICE Systems L.L.C,2004:11-84.
[3]ROBERT Y,LARRY R.Program affordability management-center of excellence[R].New Jersey:PRICE Systems L.L.C,2012.
[4]PRICE CORP.PRICE executive-overview_final1-26[M].New Jersey:PRICE Systems L.L.C,2005.
[5]PRICE CORP.PRICE whitepaper_V1.1_031804_single[M].New Jersey:PRICE Systems L.L.C,2005.
[6]PRICE CORP.PRICE H fundamentals course material[R].New Jersey:PRICE Systems L.L.C,2004.
[7]PRICE CORP.Hardware estimating model for TruePlanning[R].New Jersey:PRICE Systems L.L.C,2010.
[8]贾林通.先进战机研发费用的参数估算方法与应用研究[D].西安:空军工程大学,2012.
[9]郭基联,虞健飞,任建军.装备寿命周期费用估算软件PRICE H的剖析[J].装备指挥技术学院学报,2009,20(4):22-26.
[10]《飞机设计手册》编委会.飞机设计手册22分册:技术经济性[M].北京:航空工业出版社,2001.
[11]《飞机设计手册》编委会.飞机设计手册4分册:军用飞机总体设计[M].北京:航空工业出版社,2005.
[12]张恒喜,郭基联,董彦非.现代飞机效费分析[M].北京:航空工业出版社,2007.
[13]唐年胜,李会琼.应用回归分析[M].北京:科学出版社,2014.
[14]FIENBERG S E.The analysis of classified categorical data[J].Trans.Ser.Edinburg,2010,24(3):156-164.
[15]COOK R D,WEISBERG S.Residual and influence in regression[M].New York and London:Chapman and Hall,1982.
[16]姚珊珊,魏法杰.成本估算模型的数据诊断与处理[J].计算机工程与应用,2007,43(31):106-107.