PLS-SEM在装备成本估算核心参数中的应用
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摘要
参数估算法是当前武器装备成本估算的主要方法。TruePlanning软件作为国际主流的参数法成本估算软件,其核心参数是制造复杂度(MCPLX)。由于该参数在武器装备发展早期无法准确获取,从而使得TruePlanning软件难以适用于新型武器装备的发展早期阶段。以美军战斗机/攻击机为研究对象,从装备性能参数出发,建立制造复杂度的偏最小二乘法的结构方程模型(PLS-SEM),并进行参数估计和检验。最终结果显示,所建模型拟合结果的平均相对误差为7.94%,拟合效果好;检验样本估算的平均相对误差为5.94%,预测能力较高,满足于战斗机/攻击机新型号发展早期进行费用估算的要求。这也为中国装备发展早期的费用估算工作开辟了新的思路。
The parameter estimation method is the main method for estimating the cost of armament currently.As the international mainstream cost estimation software based on parameter estimation,the core parameter of TruePlanning software is Manufacturing ComPLeXity(MCPLX).Because this parameter cannot be accurately acquired in the early stage of armament development,TruePlanning software is difficult to be applied to the new armament in the early stages of development.Based on the performance parameters of armaments,a Partial Least Squares-Structural Equation Modeling(PLS-SEM) for MCPLX of the US fighter/attacker is established,and parameter estimation and testing are carried out.The results show that the proposed model has good fitting effect with the average relative error being 7.94%,and has high predictive ability with the average relative error of the test sample being 5.94%.The model can satisfy the requirements for estimating the cost of the new fighters/attackers in their early stages of development,opening up new ways for early-stage cost estimation of new armament development in China.
The parameter estimation method is the main method for estimating the cost of armament currently.As the international mainstream cost estimation software based on parameter estimation,the core parameter of TruePlanning software is Manufacturing ComPLeXity(MCPLX).Because this parameter cannot be accurately acquired in the early stage of armament development,TruePlanning software is difficult to be applied to the new armament in the early stages of development.Based on the performance parameters of armaments,a Partial Least Squares-Structural Equation Modeling(PLS-SEM) for MCPLX of the US fighter/attacker is established,and parameter estimation and testing are carried out.The results show that the proposed model has good fitting effect with the average relative error being 7.94%,and has high predictive ability with the average relative error of the test sample being 5.94%.The model can satisfy the requirements for estimating the cost of the new fighters/attackers in their early stages of development,opening up new ways for early-stage cost estimation of new armament development in China.
引文
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[3]DALE S.Systems cost engineering:Program affordability management and cost control[M].London:Routledge,2009:4-10.
[4]PRICE C.Parametric estimating handbook[M].New Jersey:PRICE Systems L.L.C,2004:11-84.
[5]张恒喜,郭基联,朱家元,等.小样本多元数据分析方法及应用[M].西安:西北工业大学出版社,2002:10-21.ZHANG H X,GUO J L,ZHU J Y,et al.Multivariate data analysis methods and applications with few observations[M].Xi’an:Northwestern Polytechnical University Press,2002:10-21(in Chinese).
[6]MARKO S,CHRISTIAN M,JOSEPH F.PLS-SEM:Looking back and moving forward[J].Long Range Planning,2014,47(3):132-137.
[7]JIANG N T.Three tests of dimensionality in structural equation modeling:A monte carlo simulation study[D].Charlotte:The University of North Carolina,2006:15-21.
[8]ROBERT Y,LARRY R.Program affordability management-center of excellence[M].New Jersey:PRICE Systems L.L.C,2012.
[9]PRICE C.PRICE H fundamentals course material[M].New Jersey:PRICE Systems L.L.C,2004.
[10]PRICE C.Hardware estimating model for TruePlanning[M].New Jersey:PRICE Systems L.L.C.,2010:25-35.
[11]郭基联,虞健飞,任建军.装备寿命周期费用估算软件PRICE H的剖析[J].装备指挥技术学院学报,2009,20(4):22-26.GUO J L,YU J F,REN J J.H analysis of PRICE software for LCC estimating of equipments[J].Journal of the Academy of Equipment Command&Technology,2009,20(4):22-26(in Chinese).
[12]飞机设计手册总编委会.飞机设计手册第4册:军用飞机总体设计[M].北京:航空工业出版社,2005:23-27.Chief Edition Committee of Handbook of Airplane Design.Handbook of aircraft design,Vol.4:Overall design of military aircraft[M].Beijing:Aviation Industry Press,2005:23-27(in Chinese).
[13]魏志强,张文秀,韩博.考虑飞机排放因素的飞机巡航性能参数优化方法[J].航空学报,2016,37(11):3485-3493.WEI Z Q,ZHANG W X,HAN B.Optimization method of aircraft cruise performance parameters considering pollution emissions[J].Acta Aeronautica et Astronautica Sinica,2016,37(11):3485-3493(in Chinese).
[14]飞机设计手册总编委会.飞机设计手册第22册:技术经济设计[M].北京:航空工业出版社,2001:191-194.Chief Edition Committee of Handbook of Airplane Design.Handbook of aircraft design,Vol.22:The technical economy design[M].Beijing:Aviation Industry Press,2001:191-194(in Chinese).
[15]邓朝华.移动服务用户采纳模型及其实证研究[D].武汉:华中科技大学,2008:31-35.DENG Z H.Model and empirical study of the adoption of mobile service users[D].Wuhan:Huazhong University of Science and Technology,2008:31-35(in Chinese).
[16]侯杰泰,温忠麟,成子娟.结构方程模型及其应用[M].北京:教育科学出版社,2004:7-14.HOU J T,WEN Z L,CHENG Z J.Structural equation model and its applications[M].Beijing:Educational Science Publishing House,2004:7-14(in Chinese).
[17]冯蕴雯,刘思宏,薛小峰,等.基于实测值的舰载机着舰下沉速度影响分析[J].航空学报,2015,36(11):3578-3585.FENG Y W,LIU S H,XUE X F,et al.Sinking velocity impact analysis of carrier-based aircraft based on test data[J].Acta Aeronautica et Astronautica Sinica,2015,36(11):3578-3585(in Chinese).
[18]JRESKOG K G,SRBOM D.Recent developments in structural equation modeling[J].Journal of Marketing Research,1982,19(4):404-416.
[19]郝冉.PLS路径建模在2007北京市诚信调查中的应用研究[D].北京:首都经济贸易大学,2008:51-53.HAO R.The research of PLS path modeling applied in trustworthiness index’07social survy of Beijing[D].Beijing:Capital Unversity of Economics and Business,2008:51-53(in Chinese).
[20]CARMINES E G,ZELLER R A.Reliability and validity assessment[M].London:SAGE Publications,1979:27-30.