考虑能源结构和气候因素的电动汽车温室气体影响
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摘要
电动汽车因在使用过程中近似零排放而被认为是节约能源和减少碳排量的有力工具.但我国的电力结构是以火力发电为主,这会使电力在生产阶段排放大量的二氧化碳.为进一步研究电动汽车的环境友好性,本文构建了一种改进的电动汽车排放指数模型,使用2017年的电网统计数据及气候统计数据,就能源结构和气候这两个关键因素对我国31个省市分区域展开实证研究.结果表明,电动汽车对温室气体产生的影响存在明显的空间变化,且其与能源结构中火力发电占比密切相关.另外,对于全年温度变化范围较宽的省市,气候因素可能是使电动汽车和燃油车的碳排量达到排放平衡点的关键因素.基于此,扩大电力结构中清洁能源使用比例、改善电池性能、完善相关政策体制是促进今后我国电动汽车清洁、低碳发展的重要途径.
Electric vehicles are considered to be a powerful tool for energy conservation and carbon emission reduction due to their near-zero emissions during use. However, China′s electric power structure is dominated by thermal power generation, which will cause a large amount of CO_2 emission during the production phase of electricity. In order to get a deeper understanding on the environmental friendliness of electric vehicles, this paper establishes an improved electric vehicle emission index model and then uses 2017 power grid statistical data and climate data to calculate the electric vehicle emission index based on the model. Also, this paper constructs evidence-based research for 31 provinces in China by analyzing the energy structure factor and climate factor. The results show that the impact of electric vehicles on greenhouse gases has significant spatial variations, and it is closely related to the proportion of thermal power generation in the energy structure. Besides, for provinces which has a wider range of temperature variations throughout the year, climate factors could be the critical factor in achieving the balance point of carbon emission between electric vehicles and fuel vehicles. Based on these, expanding the proportion of clean energy usage in the electric power structure, optimizing battery performance, and improving relevant policies promptly are essential ways to promote the future development of clean and low-carbon electric vehicles in China.
Electric vehicles are considered to be a powerful tool for energy conservation and carbon emission reduction due to their near-zero emissions during use. However, China′s electric power structure is dominated by thermal power generation, which will cause a large amount of CO_2 emission during the production phase of electricity. In order to get a deeper understanding on the environmental friendliness of electric vehicles, this paper establishes an improved electric vehicle emission index model and then uses 2017 power grid statistical data and climate data to calculate the electric vehicle emission index based on the model. Also, this paper constructs evidence-based research for 31 provinces in China by analyzing the energy structure factor and climate factor. The results show that the impact of electric vehicles on greenhouse gases has significant spatial variations, and it is closely related to the proportion of thermal power generation in the energy structure. Besides, for provinces which has a wider range of temperature variations throughout the year, climate factors could be the critical factor in achieving the balance point of carbon emission between electric vehicles and fuel vehicles. Based on these, expanding the proportion of clean energy usage in the electric power structure, optimizing battery performance, and improving relevant policies promptly are essential ways to promote the future development of clean and low-carbon electric vehicles in China.
引文
Choi H,Shin J,Woo J R.2018.Effect of electricity generation mix on battery electric vehicle adoption and its environmental impact[J].Energy Policy,121:13-24
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冯超,王科,徐志强,等.2017.基于混合生命周期方法的私人电动汽车温室气体排放研究[J].中国人口·资源与环境,27(10):178-187
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Mishina Y,Muromachi Y.2017.Are potential reductions in CO2 emissions via hybrid electric vehicles actualized in real traffic?The case of Japan [J].Transportation Research Part D,50:372-384
沈万霞,张博,丁宁,等.2017.轻型纯电动汽车生产和运行能耗及温室气体排放研究[J].环境科学学报,37(11):4409-4417
施晓清,李笑诺,杨建新.2013.低碳交通电动汽车碳减排潜力及其影响因素分析[J].环境科学,34(1):385-394
施晓清,孙赵鑫,李笑诺,等.2015.北京电动出租车与燃油出租车生命周期环境影响比较研究[J].环境科学,36(3):1105-1116
于大洋,黄海丽,雷鸣,等.2012.电动汽车充电与风电协同调度的碳减排效益分析[J].电力系统自动化,36(10):14-18
张恺凯,杨秀媛,卜从容,等.2013.基于负荷实测的配电网理论线损分析及降损对策[J].中国电机工程学报,33:92-97
张立玉,路昭,韦立川,等.2018.锂电池性能与温度相关性的基础实验研究[J].西安交通大学学报,52(5):133-14
Doucette R T,McCulloch M D.2011.Modeling the CO2 emissions from battery electric vehicles given the power generation mixes of different countries[J].Energy Policy,39:803-811
冯超,王科,徐志强,等.2017.基于混合生命周期方法的私人电动汽车温室气体排放研究[J].中国人口·资源与环境,27(10):178-187
李珒,战建华.2017.中国新能源汽车产业的政策变迁与政策工具选择[J].中国人口·资源与环境,27(10):198-208
李平,安富强,张剑波,等.2014.电动汽车用锂离子电池的温度敏感性研究综述[J].汽车安全与节能学报,5(3):224-237
李苏秀,刘颖琦,王静宇,等.2016.基于市场表现的中国新能源汽车产业发展政策剖析[J].中国人口·资源与环境,26(9):158-166
刘新天,何耀,曾国建,等.2016.考虑温度影响的锂电池功率状态估计[J].电工技术学报,31(13):155-163
罗晓梅,黄鲁成.2014.燃油汽车与纯电动车能源足迹实证研究[J].中国人口·资源与环境,24(9):84-90
Manjunath A,Gross G.2017.Towards a meaningful metric for the quantification of GHG emissions of electric vehicles (EVs)[J].Energy Policy,102:423-429
Mishina Y,Muromachi Y.2017.Are potential reductions in CO2 emissions via hybrid electric vehicles actualized in real traffic?The case of Japan [J].Transportation Research Part D,50:372-384
沈万霞,张博,丁宁,等.2017.轻型纯电动汽车生产和运行能耗及温室气体排放研究[J].环境科学学报,37(11):4409-4417
施晓清,李笑诺,杨建新.2013.低碳交通电动汽车碳减排潜力及其影响因素分析[J].环境科学,34(1):385-394
施晓清,孙赵鑫,李笑诺,等.2015.北京电动出租车与燃油出租车生命周期环境影响比较研究[J].环境科学,36(3):1105-1116
于大洋,黄海丽,雷鸣,等.2012.电动汽车充电与风电协同调度的碳减排效益分析[J].电力系统自动化,36(10):14-18
张恺凯,杨秀媛,卜从容,等.2013.基于负荷实测的配电网理论线损分析及降损对策[J].中国电机工程学报,33:92-97
张立玉,路昭,韦立川,等.2018.锂电池性能与温度相关性的基础实验研究[J].西安交通大学学报,52(5):133-14