基于EKC和组合分解模型的常州市环境污染影响因素实证研究
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摘要
根据常州市1993—2013年环境统计数据和经济数据,选取工业废水、SO_2、烟粉尘、固体废弃物四项主要环境指标,对经济发展与环境污染状况的环境库兹涅兹曲线(EKC)进行分析,结果表明:四类工业污染物的EKC曲线分别呈倒"U"型、倒"N"型、递减型及递增型。通过对环境污染进行组合因素分解,结果表明:规模因素是导致四种污染物排放量增加的主要因素,结构因素对四种污染物排放均表现出不同程度的约束作用,而技术进步对于SO_2与烟粉尘排放有一定抑制作用,对工业废水及固体废弃物的环境作用还有待加强。因此,建议常州市应大力推进循环经济,加快优化产业结构和加大环保技术投入力度,加强法制建设和制度创新,充分利用和发挥环境管理要素的作用,实现经济与环境协调发展。
This paper aims to investigate the relationship between economic development and environmental pollution of Changzhou city, and further put forward suggestions for the sustainable economic development to the government. Based on environmental and economic statistic data during the period 1993-2013, this paper chose industrial wastewater, SO_2, smoke powder and solid waste as four main environmental indexes to examine the EKC hypothesis of Changzhou city. The results show that the four industrial pollutants exhibit inverted U-shaped, inverted N-shaped, decreasing and increasing curves respectively. Moreover, the paper adopts the combined decomposition model of LMDI and MRCI methods to decompose the environmental pollution. It turns out that scale effect is the main factor to the increase of four industrial pollutant emissions. Besides, composition effect has different constrained effects on four pollutant discharges. In regard to technology effect, it shows certain inhibitory effects on the emissions of industrial SO_2 and smoke powder, while its environmental effects on wastewater and solid waste remain to be strengthened. Based on these results, we suggest that Changzhou government should give great impetus to the development of its circular economy, speed up the optimization of the industrial structure and increase its environmental technology investment. On the other hand, by making full use of the environmental management factors, the government needs to strengthen local legal construction and institutional innovation so as to realize the coordinated development of its economy and environment.
This paper aims to investigate the relationship between economic development and environmental pollution of Changzhou city, and further put forward suggestions for the sustainable economic development to the government. Based on environmental and economic statistic data during the period 1993-2013, this paper chose industrial wastewater, SO_2, smoke powder and solid waste as four main environmental indexes to examine the EKC hypothesis of Changzhou city. The results show that the four industrial pollutants exhibit inverted U-shaped, inverted N-shaped, decreasing and increasing curves respectively. Moreover, the paper adopts the combined decomposition model of LMDI and MRCI methods to decompose the environmental pollution. It turns out that scale effect is the main factor to the increase of four industrial pollutant emissions. Besides, composition effect has different constrained effects on four pollutant discharges. In regard to technology effect, it shows certain inhibitory effects on the emissions of industrial SO_2 and smoke powder, while its environmental effects on wastewater and solid waste remain to be strengthened. Based on these results, we suggest that Changzhou government should give great impetus to the development of its circular economy, speed up the optimization of the industrial structure and increase its environmental technology investment. On the other hand, by making full use of the environmental management factors, the government needs to strengthen local legal construction and institutional innovation so as to realize the coordinated development of its economy and environment.
引文
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[14]郭国庆,钱明辉,张平淡.我国工业二氧化硫污染排放强度的因素分解[J].中国软科学,2013(12):138-147.
[15]韩颖,潘艳如.基于新分解模型的中国工业SO2排放影响因素分析[J].生态经济,2014(1):186-188.
[16]陈祖海,雷朱家华.中国环境污染变动的时空特征及其经济驱动因素[J].地理研究,2015(11):2165-2178.
[17]郭嘉铭,金良,董锁成.呼和浩特市环境库兹涅茨曲线与环境影响因素分析[J].干旱区资源与环境,2015(4):143-148.
[18]Ang B W,Zhang F Q,Choi K H.Factorizing changes in energy and environmental indicators through decomposition[J].Energy,1998,23(6):489-495.
[19]Chung H S,Rhee H C.A residual-free decomposition of the sources of carbon dioxide emissions:A case of the Korean industries[J].Energy,2001,26(1):15-30.
[20]宋杰鲲,窦吉芳.能源消费碳排放零残差因素分解模型研究[J].中国石油大学学报(自然科学版),2013(1):183-189.
[2]Panayotou T.Empirical tests and policy analysis of environmental degradation at different stages of economic development[R].Geneva:International Labor Office,1993.
[3]Selden T M,Song D.Neoclassical growth,the J curve for abatement,and the inverted U curve for pollution[J].Journal of Environmental Economics and Management,1995,29(2):162-168.
[4]Park S,Lee Y.Regional model of EKC for air pollution:Evidence from the republic of Korea[J].Energy Policy,2011,39(10):5840-5849.
[5]邢秀凤,刘颖宇.山东省经济发展与环境保护关系的计量分析[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2006(1):58-61.
[6]杨林,高宏霞.空间计量模型视角下环境库兹涅茨曲线形成机理研究[J].统计与信息论坛,2012(7):65-72.
[7]马骊驰.中国西部地区SO2排放与经济增长关系分析[J].环境科学导刊,2015(5):49-55.
[8]杨肃昌,马素琳.空气质量与城市发展--基于动态面板GMM模型的实证分析[J].经济问题探索,2015(8):52-60.
[9]郑丽琳,朱启贵.中国碳排放库兹涅茨曲线存在性研究[J].统计研究,2012(5):58-65.
[10]Wang Y,Guo X P,Yao Y X.EKC analysis for economic growth and environmental quality:A case of Beijing[J].Information Technology Journal,2013,12(14):2888-2892.
[11]Grossman G M,Krueger A B.Economic growth and the environment[J].Quarterly Journal of Economics,1995,110(2):353-377.
[12]陈强强,窦学诚.甘肃省环境库兹涅茨曲线估计及其驱动因子分析[J].干旱区地理,2011(5):866-873.
[13]周闽军,柳平生.福建省经济增长与环境污染关系探析[J].集美大学学报(哲学社会科学版),2012(3):16-21.
[14]郭国庆,钱明辉,张平淡.我国工业二氧化硫污染排放强度的因素分解[J].中国软科学,2013(12):138-147.
[15]韩颖,潘艳如.基于新分解模型的中国工业SO2排放影响因素分析[J].生态经济,2014(1):186-188.
[16]陈祖海,雷朱家华.中国环境污染变动的时空特征及其经济驱动因素[J].地理研究,2015(11):2165-2178.
[17]郭嘉铭,金良,董锁成.呼和浩特市环境库兹涅茨曲线与环境影响因素分析[J].干旱区资源与环境,2015(4):143-148.
[18]Ang B W,Zhang F Q,Choi K H.Factorizing changes in energy and environmental indicators through decomposition[J].Energy,1998,23(6):489-495.
[19]Chung H S,Rhee H C.A residual-free decomposition of the sources of carbon dioxide emissions:A case of the Korean industries[J].Energy,2001,26(1):15-30.
[20]宋杰鲲,窦吉芳.能源消费碳排放零残差因素分解模型研究[J].中国石油大学学报(自然科学版),2013(1):183-189.