云南省农业旱灾社会脆弱性评价研究
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摘要
针对云南省近年来旱灾爆发频率、波及范围、持续时间及损失程度等呈现的加重趋势,首先构建干旱扰动下农业旱灾社会脆弱性评价指标体系,运用组合熵-CRITIC法确立指标权重,对云南省近15年来农业旱灾社会脆弱性进行动态评价。结果表明,近年来云南省农业社会经济在干旱扰动下,敏感性和应对能力总体呈现增长趋势,农业社会脆弱性呈现波动下降趋势;旱灾社会脆弱性类型划分结果显示,云南省农业社会脆弱性在干旱扰动下,主要集中于低敏感性、低应对能力,高敏感性、低应对能力和高敏感性、高应对能力3种类型。最后,提出从提高农户防旱抗旱意识,加快农业种植结构调整,积极探索灾后补偿新范式等方面进行农业旱灾风险管理。
There is a trend of drought that the frequency,scope,duration and the degree of loss are more and more serious in Yunnan Province. Firstly,the index system of social vulnerability of agricultural droughts under drought disturbance was established,and the index weights were established by using entropy-CRITIC method. and the social vulnerability of agricultural drought in Yunnan Province in recent15 years was assessed dynamically. It turned out that in recent years,sensitivity and coping capacity of agricultural social economy in Yunnan province showed a trend of growth and agricultural social vulnerability showed a downward trend. The classification of the social vulnerability of drought disaster shows that the vulnerability of agricultural society in Yunnan province is mainly focused on low sensitivity,low coping ability,high sensibility,low coping ability and high sensibility and high coping ability. Finally,it puts forward the risk management of agricultural drought by improving the farmers' awareness of preventing and fighting against drought,accelerating the adjustment of agricultural planting structure,and exploring the new paradigm of post disaster compensation actively.
There is a trend of drought that the frequency,scope,duration and the degree of loss are more and more serious in Yunnan Province. Firstly,the index system of social vulnerability of agricultural droughts under drought disturbance was established,and the index weights were established by using entropy-CRITIC method. and the social vulnerability of agricultural drought in Yunnan Province in recent15 years was assessed dynamically. It turned out that in recent years,sensitivity and coping capacity of agricultural social economy in Yunnan province showed a trend of growth and agricultural social vulnerability showed a downward trend. The classification of the social vulnerability of drought disaster shows that the vulnerability of agricultural society in Yunnan province is mainly focused on low sensitivity,low coping ability,high sensibility,low coping ability and high sensibility and high coping ability. Finally,it puts forward the risk management of agricultural drought by improving the farmers' awareness of preventing and fighting against drought,accelerating the adjustment of agricultural planting structure,and exploring the new paradigm of post disaster compensation actively.
引文
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[15]李畅,冯滔,石倩,等.洪灾社会脆弱性熵权法评价及其时间序列分析——以2001-2012年湖北省荆州市为例[J].灾害学,2015,30(3):110-117.
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[20]张玉,魏华波.基于CRITIC的多属性决策组合赋权方法[J].统计与决策,2012(16):75-77.
[21]亚行技援中国干旱管理战略研究课题组.中国干旱灾害风险管理战略研究[M].北京:.中国水利水电出版社,2011.
[2]张乐,王慧敏,佟金萍.云南极端旱灾应急管理模式构建研究[J].中国人口资源与环境,2014,24(2):161-168.
[3]Warner E B K.Perspectives on social vulnerability:Introduction[R].UNU Institute for Environment and Human Security(UNU-EHS),2007.
[4]周扬,李宁,吴文祥.自然灾害社会脆弱性研究进展[J].灾害学,2014,29(2):128-135.
[5]贺帅,杨赛霓,李双双.自然灾害社会脆弱性研究进展[J].灾害学,2014,29(3):168-173.
[6]黄晓军,黄馨,崔彩兰,等.社会脆弱性概念、分析框架与评价方法[J].地理科学进展,2014,33(11):1512-1525.
[7]何娇楠,李运刚,李雪,等.云南省干旱灾害风险评估[J].自然灾害学报,2016,25(5):37-45.
[8]张雪,陈军飞.农业旱灾适应性评价研究——以云南省曲靖市为例[J].科技管理研究,2016,36(8):58-63.
[9]陈磊,徐伟,周忻,等.自然灾害的社会脆弱性评估研究——以上海市为例[J].灾害学,2012,27(1):98-100+110.
[10]贺山峰,杜丽萍,高秀华.河南省县域单元自然灾害社会脆弱性评价[J].水土保持研究,2015,22(6):293-297.
[11]方佳毅,陈文方,孔锋,等.中国沿海地区社会脆弱性评价[J].北京师范大学学报(自然科学版),2015,51(3):280-286.
[12]方秀琴,王凯,任立良,等.基于GIS的江西省山洪灾害风险评价与分区[J].灾害学,2017,32(1):111-116.
[13]葛怡,史培军,刘婧,等.中国水灾社会脆弱性评估方法的改进与应用——以长沙地区为例[J].自然灾害学报,2005,14(6):54-58.
[14]刘艳,陈爱京,杨耘,等.近30年新疆县域尺度洪旱灾害空间聚类研究[J].自然灾害学报,2017,26(2):64-73.
[15]李畅,冯滔,石倩,等.洪灾社会脆弱性熵权法评价及其时间序列分析——以2001-2012年湖北省荆州市为例[J].灾害学,2015,30(3):110-117.
[16]张国芳,查小春,石晓静,等.汉江上游汉中市洪水灾害风险评价研究[J].中山大学学报(自然科学版),2016,55(6):28-34.
[17]魏华林,龙梦洁,李芳.旱灾风险的特征及其防范研究——由西南旱灾和冬麦区大旱引发的思考[J].保险研究,2011(3):3-18.
[18]Cutter S L,Boruff B J,Shirley W L.Social vulnerability to environmental hazards[J].Social science quarterly,2003,84(2):242-261.
[19]龚艳冰,张继国.基于正态云模型和熵权的人口发展现代化程度综合评价[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2012,22(1):138-143.
[20]张玉,魏华波.基于CRITIC的多属性决策组合赋权方法[J].统计与决策,2012(16):75-77.
[21]亚行技援中国干旱管理战略研究课题组.中国干旱灾害风险管理战略研究[M].北京:.中国水利水电出版社,2011.