长江流域1961～2015年不同等级干旱时空变化分析
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摘要
分析长江流域历史时期的干旱时空变化特征,对于目前和未来的干旱应对具有重要参考价值。采用12月尺度标准化降水指数(SPI_12)对长江流域134个气象站1961～2015年逐日降水数据进行统计分析,探究了流域内不同等级干旱的时间变化特征和空间分布格局。结果表明:长江流域每年发生干旱的平均次数和站点数均没有明显变化趋势,但特旱发生次数和站点数均呈升高趋势;流域内各站点发生干旱的频率主要介于30%～35%之间,四川盆地、云南省北部、贵州省北部发生干旱的频率大多呈增加趋势,其他地区干旱发生频率以降低趋势为主。上述结果表明,长江流域不同等级干旱呈现不一致的时间变化特征,发生特旱的风险呈增加趋势,不同区域的干旱变化趋势也存在显著差异,因此需要分区制定针对性的应对措施。
Analyzing temporal and spatial variation characteristics of droughts in historical period in the Yangtze River Basin has important reference significance for the present and future drought fighting. In this paper,12-month standard precipitation index (SPI_12) was used to analyze the daily precipitation data of 134 weather stations in the Yangtze River Basin from 1961 to2015 to explore the temporal variation trends and spatial distribution patterns of different drought grades in the watershed. The results showed that: there was no obvious change in the average annual drought frequency and the site number in the Yangtze River Basin,but the frequency of extreme drought and the site number increased. The drought frequency in the whole watershed was mainly between 30% and 35%,showing increasing tendency in Sichuan Basin,northern Yunnan Province and northern Guizhou Province,and a downward tendency in other areas. The above results indicate that temporal characteristics of different drought grades are inconsistent in the Yangtze River Basin,and the risk of extreme drought is increasing. The drought trends in different regions are also significant different,therefore zoning is essential to develop targeted countermeasures.
Analyzing temporal and spatial variation characteristics of droughts in historical period in the Yangtze River Basin has important reference significance for the present and future drought fighting. In this paper,12-month standard precipitation index (SPI_12) was used to analyze the daily precipitation data of 134 weather stations in the Yangtze River Basin from 1961 to2015 to explore the temporal variation trends and spatial distribution patterns of different drought grades in the watershed. The results showed that: there was no obvious change in the average annual drought frequency and the site number in the Yangtze River Basin,but the frequency of extreme drought and the site number increased. The drought frequency in the whole watershed was mainly between 30% and 35%,showing increasing tendency in Sichuan Basin,northern Yunnan Province and northern Guizhou Province,and a downward tendency in other areas. The above results indicate that temporal characteristics of different drought grades are inconsistent in the Yangtze River Basin,and the risk of extreme drought is increasing. The drought trends in different regions are also significant different,therefore zoning is essential to develop targeted countermeasures.
引文
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[3]黄忠恕.长江流域历史水旱灾害分析[J].人民长江,2003,34(2):1-3.
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[6]梁成,申双和.基于WAP指数的长江流域及其以南地区干旱气候特征分析[J].南京信息工程大学学报,2010,2(2):166-174.
[7]高珺,邹冰玉,欧阳骏.基于多源卫星遥感的长江流域旱情监测研究[J].企业文化,2015(12):309-312.
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[11]龚艳冰,戴靓靓,胡娜,等.基于云推理和模糊逻辑关系模型的干旱等级预测方法研究[J].长江流域资源与环境,2016,25(8):1273-1278.
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[13]唐宝琪,延军平,李双双,等.近55年来华东地区旱涝时空变化特征[J].长江流域资源与环境,2016,25(3):497-505.
[14]张利利,周俊菊,张恒玮,等.基于SPI的石羊河流域气候干湿变化及干旱事件的时空格局特征研究[J].生态学报,2017,37(3):996-1007.
[15]赵健.长江上游滑坡泥石流灾害及其预警与治理[J].中国地质灾害与防治学报,1994(S1):411-413.
[16]陈金荣,黄忠恕.长江流域1954年特大暴雨洪水[J].水文,1986(1):56-62.
[17]马倩,谢正辉,陈锋,等.长江流域1982~2005年陆地水储量变化及时空分布特征[J].气候与环境研究,2011,16(4):429-440.
[18]王琼.1962-2011年长江流域极端气温和降水事件变化研究[D].兰州:西北师范大学,2014.
[19]Thom H C S.Normal degree days above any base by the universal truncation coefficient[J].Monthly weather review,1966,94(7):461-465.
[20]Wu H,Hayes M J,Wilhite D A,et al.The effect of the length of record on the standardized precipitation index calculation[J].International Journal of Climatology,2005,25(4):505-520.
[21]王瑛,刘天雪,李体上,等.中国中小型自然灾害的空间格局研究---以地震、洪涝、旱灾为例[J].自然灾害学报,2017,26(4):48-55.
[22]贺晋云,张明军,王鹏,等.近50年西南地区极端干旱气候变化特征[J].地理学报,2011,66(9):1179-1190.
[23]刘元波,赵晓松,吴桂平.近十年鄱阳湖区极端干旱事件频发现象成因初析[J].长江流域资源与环境,2014,23(1):131-138.
[24]李军,王兆礼,黄泽勤,等.基于SPEI的西南农业区气象干旱时空演变特征[J].长江流域资源与环境,2016,25(7):1142-1149.
[2]叶笃正.长江黄河流域旱涝规律和成因研究[M].济南:山东科学技术出版社,1996.
[3]黄忠恕.长江流域历史水旱灾害分析[J].人民长江,2003,34(2):1-3.
[4]于文金,周鸿渐,占达颖,等.长江流域旱涝灾害特征研究[J].灾害学,2013,28(3):42-47.
[5]许继军,杨大文,雷志栋,等.长江流域降水量和径流量长期变化趋势检验[J].人民长江,2006,37(9):63-67.
[6]梁成,申双和.基于WAP指数的长江流域及其以南地区干旱气候特征分析[J].南京信息工程大学学报,2010,2(2):166-174.
[7]高珺,邹冰玉,欧阳骏.基于多源卫星遥感的长江流域旱情监测研究[J].企业文化,2015(12):309-312.
[8]王世新,王利双,周艺,等.长江流域水资源空间分配[J].测绘科学,2017,42(8):33-39.
[9]李鹏飞,王延乐,王志飞,等.基于Web GIS的长江流域干旱评估预报系统设计[J].人民长江,2014,45(2):18-21.
[10]邱辉,李春龙,张方伟.长江流域多模式降雨预报效果检验[J].水利水电快报,2017,38(6):39-42.
[11]龚艳冰,戴靓靓,胡娜,等.基于云推理和模糊逻辑关系模型的干旱等级预测方法研究[J].长江流域资源与环境,2016,25(8):1273-1278.
[12]Mc Kee T B,Doesken N J,Kleist J.The relationship of drought frequency and duration to time scales[C]∥Proceedings of the 8th Conference on Applied Climatology,1993:179-183.
[13]唐宝琪,延军平,李双双,等.近55年来华东地区旱涝时空变化特征[J].长江流域资源与环境,2016,25(3):497-505.
[14]张利利,周俊菊,张恒玮,等.基于SPI的石羊河流域气候干湿变化及干旱事件的时空格局特征研究[J].生态学报,2017,37(3):996-1007.
[15]赵健.长江上游滑坡泥石流灾害及其预警与治理[J].中国地质灾害与防治学报,1994(S1):411-413.
[16]陈金荣,黄忠恕.长江流域1954年特大暴雨洪水[J].水文,1986(1):56-62.
[17]马倩,谢正辉,陈锋,等.长江流域1982~2005年陆地水储量变化及时空分布特征[J].气候与环境研究,2011,16(4):429-440.
[18]王琼.1962-2011年长江流域极端气温和降水事件变化研究[D].兰州:西北师范大学,2014.
[19]Thom H C S.Normal degree days above any base by the universal truncation coefficient[J].Monthly weather review,1966,94(7):461-465.
[20]Wu H,Hayes M J,Wilhite D A,et al.The effect of the length of record on the standardized precipitation index calculation[J].International Journal of Climatology,2005,25(4):505-520.
[21]王瑛,刘天雪,李体上,等.中国中小型自然灾害的空间格局研究---以地震、洪涝、旱灾为例[J].自然灾害学报,2017,26(4):48-55.
[22]贺晋云,张明军,王鹏,等.近50年西南地区极端干旱气候变化特征[J].地理学报,2011,66(9):1179-1190.
[23]刘元波,赵晓松,吴桂平.近十年鄱阳湖区极端干旱事件频发现象成因初析[J].长江流域资源与环境,2014,23(1):131-138.
[24]李军,王兆礼,黄泽勤,等.基于SPEI的西南农业区气象干旱时空演变特征[J].长江流域资源与环境,2016,25(7):1142-1149.