WTO成员方会利用最惠国待遇条款“搭便车”吗——基于中国参与多边贸易谈判的实证研究
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摘要
将中国2004年对外贸易数据及2004-2007年MFN平均税率数据匹配至HS02分类标准下的1139种商品,利用OLS和工具变量法实证分析了WTO成员方在多边谈判中"搭便车"行为对MFN税率的影响。研究发现,在中国参加的多边谈判中确实存在成员方"搭便车"现象;"搭便车"行为对MFN税率存在微弱的积极影响。据此,本文在提出积极参加多边谈判的同时,注重区域及双边谈判的政策建议,减少单纯对多边谈判的依赖进而避免目前由于谈判无效率引起的扭曲现象。
This article matches China's foreign trade data in 2004 and the 2004-2007 average MFN rate data to the 1139 kinds of goodsclassification under standards HS02,and uses OLS and instrumental variables in the empirical analysis of the impact of "free rider" behavior of the Member States on the MFN rates in multilateral negotiations. The study findsthat member states"free-rider" phenomenon exists in China's participation in multilateral negotiations; "free rider" behavior has weak positive impact on MFN rates. Accordingly, this paper advises that China should keep active attitude in multilateral negotiations, pay attention to regional agreements and bilateral negotiations policy to reduce reliance on multilateral negotiations and avoid distortions caused by the current inefficiency of the negotiations.
This article matches China's foreign trade data in 2004 and the 2004-2007 average MFN rate data to the 1139 kinds of goodsclassification under standards HS02,and uses OLS and instrumental variables in the empirical analysis of the impact of "free rider" behavior of the Member States on the MFN rates in multilateral negotiations. The study findsthat member states"free-rider" phenomenon exists in China's participation in multilateral negotiations; "free rider" behavior has weak positive impact on MFN rates. Accordingly, this paper advises that China should keep active attitude in multilateral negotiations, pay attention to regional agreements and bilateral negotiations policy to reduce reliance on multilateral negotiations and avoid distortions caused by the current inefficiency of the negotiations.
引文
韩静,(2009)“最惠国待遇制度及其‘搭便车’问题,”厦门大学硕士论文。
李良才,(2007)“经济全球化影响下最惠国待遇条款的新发展,”《湖南财经高等专科学校学报》第2期,第22-25页。
陆以全,(2006)“WTO多哈回合谈判的发展趋势及中国对策,”《云南大学学报》第11期,第78-81页。
盛斌,(2001)“WTO体制、规则与谈判:一个博弈论的经济分析,”《世界经济》第12期,第3-12页。
唐慧俊,(2003)“关于最惠国待遇的公平性问题,”《理论探索》第6期,第80-81页。
王贵国,(2002)“世界贸易组织与最惠国待遇原则,”《国际经济法论丛》第10期,第136-169页。
谢兰平、谢磊,(2009)“最惠国待遇对我国的影响,”《中国水域》第10期,第66-68页。
尹今格,(2005)“最惠国待遇原则的经济学分析及应用策略,”《商业研究》第15期,第200-202页。
尹翔硕、郎永峰,(2011)“中国与FTA伙伴国/地区贸易密集度及互补性分析,”《南开学报》第4期,第9-18页。
周敏,(2006)“原则与例外——最惠国待遇原则与区域贸易协定博弈,”《广东商学院学院》第2期,第94-97页。
Bagwell,K.,and Staiger,R.W.,(2002)The Economics of the World Trading System,Cambridge,MAMIT Press.
Caplin,A.,and Krishna,K.,(1988)“Tariffs and the Most-Favored-Nation Clause:A Game Theoretic Ap proach,”Seoul Journal of Economics 1,267-289.
Finger,J.M.,(1979)“Trade Liberalization:A Public Choice Perspective,”in:Amacher,R.C.,Haberler G.,Willet,T.D.(Eds.),Challenges to a Liberal International Economic Order,Washington,D.C.American Enterprise Institute.
Finger,J.M.&Reincke,Ulrich&Castro,Adriana,(1999)“Market Access Bargaining in the Uruguay Round-Rigid or Relaxed Reciprocity?”Policy Research Working Paper Series 2258,The World Bank
Horn,Henrik&Mavroidis,Petros C.,(2001)“Economic and Legal Aspects of the Most-Favored-Natio clause,”European Journal of Political Economy 17(2),233-279.
Johnson,Harry G.,(1965)“An Economic Theory of Protectionism,Tariff Bargaining and the Formation o Customs Union,”Journal of Political Economy 73(3),256-256.
Ludema,R.D.,(1991)“International Trade Bargaining and the Most-Favored-Nation Clause,”Economic and Politics 3,1-20.
Ludema,R.D.,and Mayda,A.M.,(2006)“Do Countries Free Ride on MFN?”Working Paper,George town University.
Schwartz,W.F.,and Sykes,A.O.,(1996)“Toward A Positive Theory of the Most-Favored-Nation Obliga tion and its Exceptions in the WTO/GATT System,”International Review of Law and Economics 1(1),27-51.
(1)赫芬达尔--赫希曼指数(Herfindahl Hirschman Index,HHI)通常被用来衡量市场集中度。HHI以一个行业中各市场竞争主体占行业总收入或总资产百分比(即市场份额)的平方和来计量,HHI值越大表明市场集中程度越高。其计算公式为HHI=∑i?AMi2 /(∑i?AMi)2主体的收入。本。其中,Mi表示该市场中每一个市场竞争文将这一指标作为核心变量HHIi,表示商品的进口集中程度,即Hi=∑i?GATTMij2/(∑i?MFNMij)2。其中,GATT代表享受最惠国待遇的关贸总协定成员国,MFN代表所有享受最惠国待遇的国家。
李良才,(2007)“经济全球化影响下最惠国待遇条款的新发展,”《湖南财经高等专科学校学报》第2期,第22-25页。
陆以全,(2006)“WTO多哈回合谈判的发展趋势及中国对策,”《云南大学学报》第11期,第78-81页。
盛斌,(2001)“WTO体制、规则与谈判:一个博弈论的经济分析,”《世界经济》第12期,第3-12页。
唐慧俊,(2003)“关于最惠国待遇的公平性问题,”《理论探索》第6期,第80-81页。
王贵国,(2002)“世界贸易组织与最惠国待遇原则,”《国际经济法论丛》第10期,第136-169页。
谢兰平、谢磊,(2009)“最惠国待遇对我国的影响,”《中国水域》第10期,第66-68页。
尹今格,(2005)“最惠国待遇原则的经济学分析及应用策略,”《商业研究》第15期,第200-202页。
尹翔硕、郎永峰,(2011)“中国与FTA伙伴国/地区贸易密集度及互补性分析,”《南开学报》第4期,第9-18页。
周敏,(2006)“原则与例外——最惠国待遇原则与区域贸易协定博弈,”《广东商学院学院》第2期,第94-97页。
Bagwell,K.,and Staiger,R.W.,(2002)The Economics of the World Trading System,Cambridge,MAMIT Press.
Caplin,A.,and Krishna,K.,(1988)“Tariffs and the Most-Favored-Nation Clause:A Game Theoretic Ap proach,”Seoul Journal of Economics 1,267-289.
Finger,J.M.,(1979)“Trade Liberalization:A Public Choice Perspective,”in:Amacher,R.C.,Haberler G.,Willet,T.D.(Eds.),Challenges to a Liberal International Economic Order,Washington,D.C.American Enterprise Institute.
Finger,J.M.&Reincke,Ulrich&Castro,Adriana,(1999)“Market Access Bargaining in the Uruguay Round-Rigid or Relaxed Reciprocity?”Policy Research Working Paper Series 2258,The World Bank
Horn,Henrik&Mavroidis,Petros C.,(2001)“Economic and Legal Aspects of the Most-Favored-Natio clause,”European Journal of Political Economy 17(2),233-279.
Johnson,Harry G.,(1965)“An Economic Theory of Protectionism,Tariff Bargaining and the Formation o Customs Union,”Journal of Political Economy 73(3),256-256.
Ludema,R.D.,(1991)“International Trade Bargaining and the Most-Favored-Nation Clause,”Economic and Politics 3,1-20.
Ludema,R.D.,and Mayda,A.M.,(2006)“Do Countries Free Ride on MFN?”Working Paper,George town University.
Schwartz,W.F.,and Sykes,A.O.,(1996)“Toward A Positive Theory of the Most-Favored-Nation Obliga tion and its Exceptions in the WTO/GATT System,”International Review of Law and Economics 1(1),27-51.
(1)赫芬达尔--赫希曼指数(Herfindahl Hirschman Index,HHI)通常被用来衡量市场集中度。HHI以一个行业中各市场竞争主体占行业总收入或总资产百分比(即市场份额)的平方和来计量,HHI值越大表明市场集中程度越高。其计算公式为HHI=∑i?AMi2 /(∑i?AMi)2主体的收入。本。其中,Mi表示该市场中每一个市场竞争文将这一指标作为核心变量HHIi,表示商品的进口集中程度,即Hi=∑i?GATTMij2/(∑i?MFNMij)2。其中,GATT代表享受最惠国待遇的关贸总协定成员国,MFN代表所有享受最惠国待遇的国家。