执行时间视角下的可再生能源发电项目激励政策优化研究
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摘要
为实现可持续发展并降低温室气体排放,中国需大力发展可再生能源,而激励政策对可再生能源发展具有重要推动作用。鉴于此,本文采用实物期权方法评价了中国可再生能源发电项目激励政策的实施效果:首先分析了可再生能源项目的经济性,提出模型假设,接着构建并求解实物期权模型。为更直观地评价激励政策效果,本文利用最优执行条件求解项目预期执行时间和不同技术水平下的激励政策最优值。最后,以光伏发电项目为例进行实证分析。研究表明:①目前,中国光伏产业还难以独立发展,仍需国家政策的支持,但现行或曾实施的光伏激励政策存在超额激励现象。②随着技术水平的提高,为鼓励投资者及时投资,政府需提高激励力度。③从政府支出、政策效果和技术影响三个角度综合分析,单项激励政策中上网电价政策效果最佳,但政府支出较高;价格补贴政策效果偏弱,但政府支出较低;与其他两项政策相比,成本补偿政策效果较差。
In order to realize sustainable development and to reduce the greenhouse gas emission,China needs to promote the development of renewable energy,which is highly related to the incentive policies.Therefore,in order to investigate the effects of different incentive policies and to optimize the incentive polices,a real option approach is applied to evaluate the renewable energy policies in China:The economics of renewable energy projects in China are firstly studied,corresponding assumptions are proposed,and then real option models are established and solved.The expected execution time and the optimal incentive values with respect to technological levels are also obtained.Then,solar photovoltaic(PV)projects are used as a case study.The results show that:(1)incentive policies are necessary for the development of solar PV projects,however,the current or previous incentive policies exceeds the optimal incentive values;(2)more attractive basic incentive policies should be promulgated if there is a technological progress in the solar industry;(3)from the perspective of the government expenditure,policy effects and technological impacts,the feed-in tariff is the most effective policy,but the corresponding government expenditure is also very large;the price premium policy is also a very effective policy,and the corresponding government expenditure is smaller than that of the feed-in tariff policy;the cost-recovery policy is less attractive than the feed-in tariff and the price premium policy.
In order to realize sustainable development and to reduce the greenhouse gas emission,China needs to promote the development of renewable energy,which is highly related to the incentive policies.Therefore,in order to investigate the effects of different incentive policies and to optimize the incentive polices,a real option approach is applied to evaluate the renewable energy policies in China:The economics of renewable energy projects in China are firstly studied,corresponding assumptions are proposed,and then real option models are established and solved.The expected execution time and the optimal incentive values with respect to technological levels are also obtained.Then,solar photovoltaic(PV)projects are used as a case study.The results show that:(1)incentive policies are necessary for the development of solar PV projects,however,the current or previous incentive policies exceeds the optimal incentive values;(2)more attractive basic incentive policies should be promulgated if there is a technological progress in the solar industry;(3)from the perspective of the government expenditure,policy effects and technological impacts,the feed-in tariff is the most effective policy,but the corresponding government expenditure is also very large;the price premium policy is also a very effective policy,and the corresponding government expenditure is smaller than that of the feed-in tariff policy;the cost-recovery policy is less attractive than the feed-in tariff and the price premium policy.
引文
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[26]Lv Fang,Xu Honghua,Wang Sicheng.National survey report of PV power applications in China[R].IEAInternational Energy Agency,2015.
[27]Cox D,Miller H.The Theory of Stochastic Processes[M].London:Chapman and Hall,1965.
[2]Pindyck R S.Irreversibility,Uncertainty,and Investment[J].Journal of Economic Literature,1991,29:1110-1148.
[3]俞萍萍.国际碳贸易价格波动对可再生能源投资的影响机制---基于实物期权理论的分析[J].国际贸易问题,2012,(5):94-104.
[4]李庆,赵新泉,葛翔宇.政策不确定性对可再生能源电力投资影响研究---基于实物期权理论证明与分析[J].中国管理科学,2015(S1):445-452.
[5]Siddiqui A,Fleten S.How to proceed with competing alternative energy technologies:A real options analysis[J].Energy Economics,2010,32(4):817-830.
[6]Martínez-Cese1a E A,Mutale J.Application of an advanced real options approach for renewable energy generation projects planning[J].Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews,2011,15(4):2087-2094.
[7]Zeng Yapeng,Klabjan D,Arinez J.Distributed solar renewable generation:Option contracts with renewable energy credit uncertainty[J].Energy Economics,2015,48:295-305.
[8]Gahrooei M R,Zhang Yuan,Ashuri B,et al.Timing residential photovoltaic investments in the presence of demand uncertainties[J].Sustainable Cities and Society,2016,20:109-123.
[9]林伯强,李江龙.基于随机动态递归的中国可再生能源政策量化评价[J].经济研究,2014,(4):89-103.
[10]李庆,陈敏.中国风电固定上网电价政策的实物期权理论与实证分析[J].中国管理科学,2016,24(5):65-73.
[11]Lee S,Shih L.Renewable energy policy evaluation using real option model-The case of Taiwan[J].Energy Economics,2010,32:S67-S78.
[12]Reuter W H,SzolgayováJ,Fuss S,et al.Renewable energy investment:Policy and market impacts[J].Applied Energy,2012,97:249-254.
[13]Lin Boqieng,Wesseh P K.Valuing Chinese feed-in tariffs program for solar power generation:A real options analysis[J].Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews,2013,28:474-482.
[14]Zhang Mingang,Zhou Dequn,Zhou Peng.A real option model for renewable energy policy evaluation with application to solar PV power generation in China[J].Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews,2014,40:944-955.
[15]钟渝,刘名武,马永开.基于实物期权的光伏并网发电项目成本补偿策略研究[J].中国管理科学,2010,18(3):68-74.
[16]Jeon C,Lee J,Shin J.Optimal subsidy estimation method using system dynamics and the real option model:Photovoltaic technology case[J].Applied Energy,2015,142:33-43.
[17]公丕芹,李昕旸.碳交易机制下可再生能源投资价值与投资时机研究[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2017,(3):22-29.
[18]Boomsma T K,Meade N,Fleten S.Renewable energy investments under different support schemes:A real options approach[J].European Journal of Operational Research,2012,220(1):225-237.
[19]Cheng Cheng,Wang Zhen,Liu Mingming,et al.Defer option valuation and optimal investment timing of solar photovoltaic projects under different electricity market systems and support schemes[J].Energy,2017,127:594-610.
[20]Torani K,Rausser G,Zilberman D.Innovation subsidies versus consumer subsidies:A real options analysis of solar energy[J].Energy Policy,2016,92:255-269.
[21]BP.BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2016[R].BP,2016.
[22]Amin A Z.Renewable power generation costs in 2014[R].International Renewable Energy Agency,2015.
[23]Cortazar G,Schwartz E S,Salinas M.Evaluating environmental investments:A real options approach[J].Management Science,1998,44(8):1059-1070.
[24]Fleten S,Maribu K,Wangensteen I.Optimal investment strategies in decentralized renewable power generation under uncertainty[J].Energy,2007,32(5):803-815.
[25]Wong K P.The effect of uncertainty on investment timing in a real options model[J].Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control,2007,31(7):2152-2167.
[26]Lv Fang,Xu Honghua,Wang Sicheng.National survey report of PV power applications in China[R].IEAInternational Energy Agency,2015.
[27]Cox D,Miller H.The Theory of Stochastic Processes[M].London:Chapman and Hall,1965.