应急预案的执行状态优化问题研究
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摘要
突发事件的发展演变具有极强的不确定性,随着时间的推进,突发事件对应急处置的需求会发生变化,而处于执行过程中的预案,尤其是其中的部分工序可能不再适用,及时地调整预案工序的执行状态对提升整体应急处置效率具有重要意义。针对突发事件应急处置中不确定的应急处置需求,结合应急处置与事件演化的动态博弈特征,从可操作性应急预案的执行工序层面对应急预案的执行状态优化问题进行了研究,解决了特定时刻预案工序的执行状态选择问题,为根据突发事件的实时信息调整可操作性应急预案工序的执行状态提供决策辅助。
The development of emergency has a strong uncertainty,the demand of emergency treatment will change as emergency plan executing,so the overall plan or part of the processes may not be applicable for the changed demand,it will be significant to change the executing state of those processes for improving emergency response efficiency.In order to respond to uncertaintyemergency needs,consideringdynamic game features between the evolution of emergenciesand emergency response,the optimization problem of executing state has been studied in operational level,which can help selecting executing state in a specific moment as the emergency needs changed,and providingdecision support based on real-time information to adjust for emergency contingency plans and the implementation of the process state.
The development of emergency has a strong uncertainty,the demand of emergency treatment will change as emergency plan executing,so the overall plan or part of the processes may not be applicable for the changed demand,it will be significant to change the executing state of those processes for improving emergency response efficiency.In order to respond to uncertaintyemergency needs,consideringdynamic game features between the evolution of emergenciesand emergency response,the optimization problem of executing state has been studied in operational level,which can help selecting executing state in a specific moment as the emergency needs changed,and providingdecision support based on real-time information to adjust for emergency contingency plans and the implementation of the process state.
引文
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[19]田军,李莉芳,白剑,等.基于DSM的应急任务流程模块化设计研究[J],中国管理科学,2014,22(8):100-107.
[2]Qi Mingliang,Chi Hong,Ji Lei,et al.A study on the method for constituting an operable emergency plan[C]//Proceedings of the 3rd International Conference on Management and Service Science,Beijing,China,2009.
[3]石彪,祁明亮,邵雪琰,等.乌鲁木齐社区应急管理机制路线图[J].国家行政学院学报,2012,(2):35-40.
[4]吴宗之,刘茂.重大事故应急预案分级、分类体系及其基本内容[J].中国安全科学学报,2003,13(01):18-21.
[5]Cohen R,Weinisch K.The impact of a major earthquake on the evacuation of the emergency planning zone of a nuclear power plant[J].Journal of emergency management,2015,13(2):135-43.
[6]Liang Yan,Bao Jinsong,Hu Xiaofeng,et al.A heuristic project scheduling approach for quick response to maritime disaster rescue[J].International Journal of Project Management 2009,27(6):620-628.
[7]胡信布,何正文,徐渝.基于资源约束的突发事件应急救援鲁棒性调度优化[J].运筹与管理,2013,22(02):72-9.
[8]瞿斌,王雪芳.基于效用的应急决策方案动态调整方法[J],统计与决策,2014,(7):46-49.
[9]姜艳萍,樊治平,苏明明.应急决策方案的动态调整方法研究[J],中国管理科学,2011,19(5):104-108.
[10]于辉,陈剑.突发事件下何时启动应急预案[J].系统工程理论与实践,2007,(8):27-32.
[11]张玲,陈涛,黄钧.基于最小最大后悔值的应急救灾网络构建鲁棒优化模型与算法[J],中国管理科学,2014,22(7):131-139.
[12]盛方正,季建华,周娜.基于供应链管理的应急预案启动时间研究[J].工业工程与管理,2008,(6):1-5.
[13]余昇,徐寅峰,董玉成,等.基于在线方法的蓝藻危机应急预案启动策略[J].系统工程理论与实践,2011,31(5):914-919.
[14]余昇,徐寅峰,郑斐峰.太湖水华危机应急预案在线风险补偿启动策略[J].运筹与管理,2011,20(2):117-24.
[15]于辉,江智慧.突发事件下分阶段启动应急预案模型研究[J].管理工程学报,2011,25(1):109-114.
[16]王长峰,满颖.基于动态博弈理论的重大工程应急管理决策研究[J],中国管理科学,2013,(11):173-179.
[17]周传贤,杨阳.商场启动疏散预案的最大人流密度思考[J].中国安全生产科学技术,2007,3(5):122-125.
[18]Cormack A M,Rusnak J,Baldwin C Y.Exploring the structure of complex software design:An empirical study of open source and proprietary Code[J].Management Science,2006,52(7):1015-1030.
[19]田军,李莉芳,白剑,等.基于DSM的应急任务流程模块化设计研究[J],中国管理科学,2014,22(8):100-107.