突发事件公众准备意愿的影响因素——基于实证数据的分析
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摘要
突发事件是"低概率、高损失"的极端事件。突发事件风险客观存在,公众的应对准备意愿及行为对减缓突发事件风险及降低突发事件损失有着重要影响。但实际上,公众普遍表现出较弱的准备意愿,很少主动采取准备措施及行为。为了解释公众为避免突发事件损失而事先采取应对准备的行为差异,本文基于实证调查数据,将保护动机理论(PMT)应用于公众准备意愿的预测研究,建立突发事件公众认知与准备意愿理论模型,运用多元回归分析及结构方程模型方法,验证公众风险认知、应对认知与准备意愿之间的路径关系。其中风险认知包括可能性和严重性认知两个变量,应对认知包括应对效能、自我效能和应对成本认知三个变量。实证数据通过问卷调查的方式获取,调查对象涉及湖北省武汉市七大行政区域共405位城区居民。数据分析结果表明,公众的准备意愿受到风险认知及应对认知的共同影响,相比于风险认知,应对认知对准备意愿有更大的解释效力;年龄、教育程度、收入等三类人口统计学特征对准备意愿有一定的解释效力。研究结论显示,为了促使公众形成准备意愿,风险沟通不仅应考虑突发事件风险发生的可能性及后果的严重性,更需要关注应对效能、自我效能以及应对成本等对公众准备意愿有着显著影响的因素。
Emergency events are low-probability and high-consequence events.Since emergency events risk exists objectively,public preparedness intentions and behavior have an important impact on risk mitigation and damage reduction.It has been widely observed that people often fail to act,or do very little,to lessen their risk of emergency events damage.In order to explain the variance in public's precautionary action to avoid emergency events damage,a model of emergency events public perception and preparedness intention is develeped.This article aims to predict public preparedness intentions by testing apath model,including risk perception and coping appraisal based on Protection Motivation Theory(PMT).Causal relations are tested by means of hierarchical regression and structural equation modeling(SEM).Risk perception is composed of the variables"probability"and "severity",and coping appraisal is comprised of the three variables"response efficacy","self-efficacy",and "response cost".Data are collected through questionnaire surveys in seven administrative areas in Wuhan of Hubei province(n=405).Overall,the results indicate that both risk perception and coping appraisal influence public preparedness intentions.And the coping appraisal is better than the risk perception at predicting preparedness intentions.In addition,the data show the explanatory power of three demographic variables,including age,education,and income.To motivate the public to take their share in emergency events risk preparedness intentions and behavior,it is essential to communicate not only the risk of probability and its potential consequences,but also the response efficacy,self-efficacy and response costs,which are statistically significant factors influence public preparedness intentions.
Emergency events are low-probability and high-consequence events.Since emergency events risk exists objectively,public preparedness intentions and behavior have an important impact on risk mitigation and damage reduction.It has been widely observed that people often fail to act,or do very little,to lessen their risk of emergency events damage.In order to explain the variance in public's precautionary action to avoid emergency events damage,a model of emergency events public perception and preparedness intention is develeped.This article aims to predict public preparedness intentions by testing apath model,including risk perception and coping appraisal based on Protection Motivation Theory(PMT).Causal relations are tested by means of hierarchical regression and structural equation modeling(SEM).Risk perception is composed of the variables"probability"and "severity",and coping appraisal is comprised of the three variables"response efficacy","self-efficacy",and "response cost".Data are collected through questionnaire surveys in seven administrative areas in Wuhan of Hubei province(n=405).Overall,the results indicate that both risk perception and coping appraisal influence public preparedness intentions.And the coping appraisal is better than the risk perception at predicting preparedness intentions.In addition,the data show the explanatory power of three demographic variables,including age,education,and income.To motivate the public to take their share in emergency events risk preparedness intentions and behavior,it is essential to communicate not only the risk of probability and its potential consequences,but also the response efficacy,self-efficacy and response costs,which are statistically significant factors influence public preparedness intentions.
引文
[1]第十届全国人民代表大会常委会.中华人民共和国突发事件应对法[EB/OL].[2007-08-30].http://www.gov.cn/zhengce/2007-08/30/content_2602205.htm.
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[4]Botzen WJW,Aerts JCJH,van den Bergh JCJM.Willingness of homeowners to mitigate climate risk through insurance[J].Ecological Economics,2009,68(8-9):2265-2277.
[5]Department for Environment,Food and rural Affairs(DEFRA).Developing the evidence base for flood resistance and resilience[R].Summary Report,London:R&D Technical Report FD2607/TR1,2008.
[6]闪淳昌.应急管理:中国特色的运行模式与实践[M].北京:北京师范大学出版社,2011.130-136.
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[8]Kunreuther H.Mitigating disaster losses through insurance[J].Journal of Risk and Uncertainty,1996,12(213):171-187.
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[12]Bubeck P,Botzen W J W,Aerts J C J H.A review of risk perceptions and other factors that influence flood mitigation behavior[J].Risk Analysis,2012,32(9):1481-1495.
[13]Lindell MK,Perry RW.Communicating Environmental Risk in Multiethnic Communities[M].Thousand Oaks,CA:Sage Publications,2004.
[14]Martens T,Garrelts H,Grunenberg H,et al.Taking theheterogeneity of citizens into account:Flood risk communication in coastal cities-A case study of Bremen[J].Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences,2009,9(6):1931-1940.
[15]Griffin RJ,Dunwoody S,Neuwirth K.Proposed model of the relationship of risk information seeking and processing to the development of preventive behaviors[J].Environmental Research,1999,80(2):230-245.
[16]Grothmann T,Reusswig F.People at risk of flooding:Why some residents take precautionary action while others do not[J].Natural Hazards,2006,38(1-2):101-120.
[17]Zaalberg R,Midden C,Meijnders A,et al.Prevention,adaptation,and threat denial:Flooding experiences in the Netherlands[J].Risk Analysis,2009,29(12):1759-1778.
[18]Lindell MK,Perry RW.Household adjustment to earthquake hazard-A review of research[J].Environment and Behavior,2000,32(4):461-501.
[19]Horney JA,MacDonald PDM,Van Willigen M,et al.Individual actual or perceived property flood risk:Did it predict evacuation from Hurricane Isabel in North Carolina,2003?[J]Risk Analysis,2010,30(3):501-511.
[20]Lindell MK,Hwang SN.Households'perceived personal risk and responses in a multi hazard environment[J].Risk Analysis,2008,28(2):539-556.
[21]Kellens W,Terpstra T,Maeyer P D.Perception and communication of flood risks:A systematic review of empirical research[J].Risk Analysis,2013,33(1):24-49.
[22]Griffin RJ,Yang Zheng,ter Huurne E,et al.After the flood-Anger,attribution,and the seeking of information[J].Science Communication,2008,29(3):285-315.
[23]李湖生.非常规突发事件应急准备体系的构成及其评估理论与方法研究[J].中国应急管理,2013,(8):13-21.
[24]石彪,薛旭旭,池宏,等.应急预案的执行状态优化问题研究[J].中国管理科学,2017,25(3):156-163.
[25]游志斌.发达国家突发事件风险防范的政策趋向---基于“准备”的视角[J].中国行政管理,2015,(4):22-26.
[26]薛澜,周海雷,陶鹏.我国公众应急能力影响因素及培育路径研究[J].中国应急管理,2014,(5):9-15.
[27]张文娟,郝艳华,吴群红,等.因子分析法的公众应急准备情况影响因素研究[J].中国预防医学杂志,2014,15(3):166-169.
[28]王东,宁芳,马宁,等.北京市居民公众应急准备现状评价量表测试结果分析[J].中国公共卫生,2017,33(5):703-706.
[29]刘德海,鲍雪言,王谢宁.恐怖袭击事件中悲观/乐观情绪如何影响博弈均衡结果[J].中国管理科学,2017,25(10):80-88.
[30]刘天卓,王敏,焦慧芳.风险信息、风险感知与火灾防范行为---以古建筑火灾为例[J].华南理工大学学报(社会科学版),2017,19(1):80-96.
[31]McCarthy J J,Canziani O F,Leary N A J,et al.Climate change 2001:Impacts,adaptation and vulnerability.Contribution of Working Group II to the third assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change(IPCC)[M].Cambridge:Cambridge University Press,2001.
[32]Fink A,Ulbrich U,Engel H.Aspects of the January1995flood in Germany[J].Weather,1996,51:34-39.
[33]International Commission for the Protection of the Rhine(ICPR).Non structural flood plain management:Measures and their effectiveness[R].Koblenz,2002.
[34]Kunreuther H.Even Noah built an ark[J].The Wharton Magazine(Summer),1978:28-35.
[35]Prentice-Dunn S,Rogers R W.Protection motivation theory[J].Health Behavior Research,1986,1(3):153-161.
[36]Floyd D L,Prentice-Dunn S,Rogers R W.A metaanalysis of research on protection motivation theory[J].Journal of Applied Social Psychology,2000,30(2):407-429.
[37]Mulilis J P,Lippa R.Behavioral change in earthquake preparedness due to negative threat appeals:A test of protection motivation theory[J].Journal of Applied Social Psychology,1990,20(8):619-638.
[38]McGuire W J.Attitudes and attitude change[M]//Lindzey G,Aronson E.Handbook of social psychology.New York:Random House,1985:233-346.
[39]Zimbardo P G,Leippe M R.The psychology of attitude change and social influence[M].New York:McGraw-Hill Companies,1991:313.
[40]Schwarzer R,Fuchs R.Self-efficacy and health behaviors[M]//Conner M,Norman P.Predicting health behaviour:Research and practice with social cognition models.Buckingham,UK:Open University Press,1996.
[41]Federal Emergency Management Agency.Preparedness in America[R].2014.8.
[2]国家统计局.中华人民共和国2016年国民经济和社会发展统计公报[EB/OL].[2017-02-28].http://www.stats.gov.cn/tjsj/zxfb/201702/t20170228_1467424.html.
[3]Merz B,Hall J,Disse M,et al.Fluvial flood risk management in a changing world[J].Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences,2010,10(3):509-527.
[4]Botzen WJW,Aerts JCJH,van den Bergh JCJM.Willingness of homeowners to mitigate climate risk through insurance[J].Ecological Economics,2009,68(8-9):2265-2277.
[5]Department for Environment,Food and rural Affairs(DEFRA).Developing the evidence base for flood resistance and resilience[R].Summary Report,London:R&D Technical Report FD2607/TR1,2008.
[6]闪淳昌.应急管理:中国特色的运行模式与实践[M].北京:北京师范大学出版社,2011.130-136.
[7]Kreibich H,ThiekenAH,PetrowT,et al.Flood loss reduction of private households due to building precautionary measures:Lessons learned from the Elbe flood in August 2002[J].Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences,2005,5(1):117-126.
[8]Kunreuther H.Mitigating disaster losses through insurance[J].Journal of Risk and Uncertainty,1996,12(213):171-187.
[9]Siegrist M,Gutscher H.Flooding risks:A comparison of lay people's perceptions and expert's assessments in Switzerland[J].Risk Analysis,2006,26(4):971-979.
[10]Terpstra T,Lindell MK,Gutteling JM.Does communicating(flood)risk affect(flood)risk perceptions?Results of a quasi-experimental study[J].Risk Analysis,2009,29(8):1141-1155.
[11]Weinstein ND,Rothman AJ,Nicolich M.Use of correlational data to examine the effects of risk perceptions on precautionary behavior[J].Psychology and Health,1998,13(3):479-501.
[12]Bubeck P,Botzen W J W,Aerts J C J H.A review of risk perceptions and other factors that influence flood mitigation behavior[J].Risk Analysis,2012,32(9):1481-1495.
[13]Lindell MK,Perry RW.Communicating Environmental Risk in Multiethnic Communities[M].Thousand Oaks,CA:Sage Publications,2004.
[14]Martens T,Garrelts H,Grunenberg H,et al.Taking theheterogeneity of citizens into account:Flood risk communication in coastal cities-A case study of Bremen[J].Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences,2009,9(6):1931-1940.
[15]Griffin RJ,Dunwoody S,Neuwirth K.Proposed model of the relationship of risk information seeking and processing to the development of preventive behaviors[J].Environmental Research,1999,80(2):230-245.
[16]Grothmann T,Reusswig F.People at risk of flooding:Why some residents take precautionary action while others do not[J].Natural Hazards,2006,38(1-2):101-120.
[17]Zaalberg R,Midden C,Meijnders A,et al.Prevention,adaptation,and threat denial:Flooding experiences in the Netherlands[J].Risk Analysis,2009,29(12):1759-1778.
[18]Lindell MK,Perry RW.Household adjustment to earthquake hazard-A review of research[J].Environment and Behavior,2000,32(4):461-501.
[19]Horney JA,MacDonald PDM,Van Willigen M,et al.Individual actual or perceived property flood risk:Did it predict evacuation from Hurricane Isabel in North Carolina,2003?[J]Risk Analysis,2010,30(3):501-511.
[20]Lindell MK,Hwang SN.Households'perceived personal risk and responses in a multi hazard environment[J].Risk Analysis,2008,28(2):539-556.
[21]Kellens W,Terpstra T,Maeyer P D.Perception and communication of flood risks:A systematic review of empirical research[J].Risk Analysis,2013,33(1):24-49.
[22]Griffin RJ,Yang Zheng,ter Huurne E,et al.After the flood-Anger,attribution,and the seeking of information[J].Science Communication,2008,29(3):285-315.
[23]李湖生.非常规突发事件应急准备体系的构成及其评估理论与方法研究[J].中国应急管理,2013,(8):13-21.
[24]石彪,薛旭旭,池宏,等.应急预案的执行状态优化问题研究[J].中国管理科学,2017,25(3):156-163.
[25]游志斌.发达国家突发事件风险防范的政策趋向---基于“准备”的视角[J].中国行政管理,2015,(4):22-26.
[26]薛澜,周海雷,陶鹏.我国公众应急能力影响因素及培育路径研究[J].中国应急管理,2014,(5):9-15.
[27]张文娟,郝艳华,吴群红,等.因子分析法的公众应急准备情况影响因素研究[J].中国预防医学杂志,2014,15(3):166-169.
[28]王东,宁芳,马宁,等.北京市居民公众应急准备现状评价量表测试结果分析[J].中国公共卫生,2017,33(5):703-706.
[29]刘德海,鲍雪言,王谢宁.恐怖袭击事件中悲观/乐观情绪如何影响博弈均衡结果[J].中国管理科学,2017,25(10):80-88.
[30]刘天卓,王敏,焦慧芳.风险信息、风险感知与火灾防范行为---以古建筑火灾为例[J].华南理工大学学报(社会科学版),2017,19(1):80-96.
[31]McCarthy J J,Canziani O F,Leary N A J,et al.Climate change 2001:Impacts,adaptation and vulnerability.Contribution of Working Group II to the third assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change(IPCC)[M].Cambridge:Cambridge University Press,2001.
[32]Fink A,Ulbrich U,Engel H.Aspects of the January1995flood in Germany[J].Weather,1996,51:34-39.
[33]International Commission for the Protection of the Rhine(ICPR).Non structural flood plain management:Measures and their effectiveness[R].Koblenz,2002.
[34]Kunreuther H.Even Noah built an ark[J].The Wharton Magazine(Summer),1978:28-35.
[35]Prentice-Dunn S,Rogers R W.Protection motivation theory[J].Health Behavior Research,1986,1(3):153-161.
[36]Floyd D L,Prentice-Dunn S,Rogers R W.A metaanalysis of research on protection motivation theory[J].Journal of Applied Social Psychology,2000,30(2):407-429.
[37]Mulilis J P,Lippa R.Behavioral change in earthquake preparedness due to negative threat appeals:A test of protection motivation theory[J].Journal of Applied Social Psychology,1990,20(8):619-638.
[38]McGuire W J.Attitudes and attitude change[M]//Lindzey G,Aronson E.Handbook of social psychology.New York:Random House,1985:233-346.
[39]Zimbardo P G,Leippe M R.The psychology of attitude change and social influence[M].New York:McGraw-Hill Companies,1991:313.
[40]Schwarzer R,Fuchs R.Self-efficacy and health behaviors[M]//Conner M,Norman P.Predicting health behaviour:Research and practice with social cognition models.Buckingham,UK:Open University Press,1996.
[41]Federal Emergency Management Agency.Preparedness in America[R].2014.8.