比赛情境因素对中超联赛技战术表现指标影响的实证研究
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摘要
采用文献资料法、专家访谈法、数理统计法等,对比赛场地(主场和客场)、球队实力(上游球队和下游球队)、对手实力(上游球队和下游球队)、赛事阶段(赛季上半阶段和赛季下半阶段) 4种比赛情境因素对2012—2016赛季中超联赛1 188场比赛技战术表现指标的影响进行了研究。研究结果表明:1)主场球队射门、射正、传中、传球等16项射门及进攻组织相关技战术指标均高于客场球队(P <0. 05),在犯规、黄牌和红牌3项指标上低于客场球队(P <0. 05); 2)上游球队射门、射正、传球、越位等11项技战术指标均高于下游球队(P <0. 01);仅向前传球占比1项技战术指标低于下游球队(P <0. 01),犯规、被犯规、黄牌、红牌4项防守相关变量不存在显著性差异(P介于0. 089和0. 712); 3)相对于面对下游球队,当面对上游球队时,参赛球队完成更少的射门、射正、角球、传中、全场控球率、在对方半场控球率、传球、向前传球、向前传球成功率、攻入对方前场、攻入对方禁区、对抗成功率(P <0. 01),但完成了更多的向前传球占比、黄牌、红牌(P <0. 01),射正率、传球成功率、犯规、被犯规、越位等相关变量不存在显著性差异(P介于0. 15和0. 77); 4)赛季前半阶段仅犯规、被犯规2项指标高于赛季后半阶段(P <0. 01),而射正、射正率、传球、传球成功率、向前传球成功率、向前传球占比、攻入对方前场7项指标低于赛事后半阶段(P <0. 05)。结论:比赛地点、球队实力、对手实力、赛事阶段这4种比赛情境因素对中超联赛球队的技战术指标有影响,显示出比赛情境因素应纳入足球技战术分析体系之中,这对于完善足球分析理论体系、推动中超各队足球技战术分析与实战结合具有一定的现实意义,同时也指明了借助大数据挖掘技术和新的统计方法对足球技战术指标进行研究的新的方向。
By using the methods of literature review,expert interviewand mathematical statistics,this paper analyzed the influence of match situation variables on technical and tactical performance indicators of 1188 matches in China Football Association Super League( CSL) of the 2012—2016 seasons. The match situation variables are competition location( home and away),team strength( upper-ranked team and lower-ranked team),opponent team strength( upper-ranked team and lower-ranked team),competition stage( the first half of the season and the second half of the season). Results: 1) teams in home matches achieved higher values in 16 indicators like shot,shot on target,pass and cross than in away matches( P <0. 05),lower values in foul,yellowcards and red cards than in away matches( P < 0. 05); 2) upper-ranked teams achieved higher values in 11 indicators like shot,shot on target,pass,offside than lower-ranked teams( P < 0. 01); lower values in forward pass ratio than lower-ranked teams( P < 0. 01); there is no significant difference between the two kinds of teams in4 defensive related variables of foul,fouled,yellowcards and red cards( 0. 089 < P < 0. 712); 3) compared with matches against lower-ranked opponents,teams in matches against upper-ranked opponents,achieved less shots,shots on target,corners,crosses,ball possession,ball possession in opponent half,passes,forward passes,forward pass success rate,front court entries,penalty area entries,and confrontation success rate( P < 0. 01),but can complete more forward pass rate,yellowcards and red cards( P < 0. 01). There is no significant difference in correlation variables of target rate,pass rate,foul,fouled and offside( 0. 15 < P < 0. 77); 4) 2 indicators of foul and fouled in the first half of the season are higher than those in the second half of the season( P < 0. 01),while 7 indicators of shots on target,target rate,pass,pass rate,forward pass rate,forward pass proportion and front court entries are lower than those in the second half of the season( P < 0. 05). Conclusions: The 4 situation factors of competition location,team strength,opponent team strength and competition stage can influence the technical and tactical performance indicators of Chinese Super League teams and it is necessary to include the situation factors in the football technique and tactics analysis system,which is of practical significance for improving the theoretical system of football analysis and promoting the combination of football technical and tactical analysis and practice of Chinese Super League teams. Meanwhile,it also points out a newdirection of studying football technical and tactical indicators with the help of big data mining technology and newstatistical methods.
By using the methods of literature review,expert interviewand mathematical statistics,this paper analyzed the influence of match situation variables on technical and tactical performance indicators of 1188 matches in China Football Association Super League( CSL) of the 2012—2016 seasons. The match situation variables are competition location( home and away),team strength( upper-ranked team and lower-ranked team),opponent team strength( upper-ranked team and lower-ranked team),competition stage( the first half of the season and the second half of the season). Results: 1) teams in home matches achieved higher values in 16 indicators like shot,shot on target,pass and cross than in away matches( P <0. 05),lower values in foul,yellowcards and red cards than in away matches( P < 0. 05); 2) upper-ranked teams achieved higher values in 11 indicators like shot,shot on target,pass,offside than lower-ranked teams( P < 0. 01); lower values in forward pass ratio than lower-ranked teams( P < 0. 01); there is no significant difference between the two kinds of teams in4 defensive related variables of foul,fouled,yellowcards and red cards( 0. 089 < P < 0. 712); 3) compared with matches against lower-ranked opponents,teams in matches against upper-ranked opponents,achieved less shots,shots on target,corners,crosses,ball possession,ball possession in opponent half,passes,forward passes,forward pass success rate,front court entries,penalty area entries,and confrontation success rate( P < 0. 01),but can complete more forward pass rate,yellowcards and red cards( P < 0. 01). There is no significant difference in correlation variables of target rate,pass rate,foul,fouled and offside( 0. 15 < P < 0. 77); 4) 2 indicators of foul and fouled in the first half of the season are higher than those in the second half of the season( P < 0. 01),while 7 indicators of shots on target,target rate,pass,pass rate,forward pass rate,forward pass proportion and front court entries are lower than those in the second half of the season( P < 0. 05). Conclusions: The 4 situation factors of competition location,team strength,opponent team strength and competition stage can influence the technical and tactical performance indicators of Chinese Super League teams and it is necessary to include the situation factors in the football technique and tactics analysis system,which is of practical significance for improving the theoretical system of football analysis and promoting the combination of football technical and tactical analysis and practice of Chinese Super League teams. Meanwhile,it also points out a newdirection of studying football technical and tactical indicators with the help of big data mining technology and newstatistical methods.
引文
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[8]谢军,刘鸿优.比赛情境因素对中国足球超级联赛技战术表现的影响[J].北京体育大学学报,2017,40(2):108-111.
[9]刘鸿优,彭召方.中国足球超级联赛致胜关键指标探析[J].中国体育科技,2016,52(3):104-109.
[10] Liu H,Gómez M,Gon9alves B,et al. Technical performance and match-to-match variation in elite football teams[J]. Journal of Sports Sciences,2016,34(6):509-518.
[11]Bush M,Barnes C,Archer D T,et al. Evolution of match performance parameters for various playing positions in the English Premier League[J]. Human Movement Science,2015,2(39):1-11.
[12]赵刚,陈超.足球比赛表现研究方法和评价指标体系研究[J].体育科学,2015,35(4):72-81.
[13]Boyko R. H.,Boyko A. R.,&Boyko M. G. Referee bias contributes to home advantage in English premiership football[J]. Journal of Sports Sciences,2007,25(11):1185-1194.
[14] Polard R. Home advantage in football:A current review of an unsolved puzzle[J]. The Open Sports Sciences Journal,2008(1):12-14.
[15]刘鸿优,易清,康辉.欧洲足球冠军联赛主场优势的判别分析[J].武汉体育学院学报,2014,48(11):91-95.
[2] Liu H. Evaluation on match performances of professional football players and teams under different situational conditions[M]. Madrid:Faculty of Physical Activity and Sport Sciences,Technical University of Madrid,2015.
[3] Coutts AJ. Evolution of football match analysis research[J]. Journal of Sports Sciences,2014,32(20):1829-1830.
[4]Carling C,Williams AM,Reilly T. Handbook of soccer match analysis[M]. Abingdon,UK:Routledge,2007.
[5]Liu H,Yi Q,Gimenez J,et al. Performance profiles of football teams in the UEFA Champions League considering situational efficiency[J]. International Journal of Performance Analysis in Sport,2015,15(1):371-390.
[6]Gomez MA,Lago-penas C,Pollard R. Situational variables,in Routledge handbook of sports performance analysis[M]. Mcgarry T,O’donoghue P,Sampaio J,editors. Routledge:London,2013:259-269.
[7]刘鸿优.不同比赛情境条件下高水平足球运动队标准化比赛表现档案的创建[J].体育成人教育学刊,2015,31(4):35-38.
[8]谢军,刘鸿优.比赛情境因素对中国足球超级联赛技战术表现的影响[J].北京体育大学学报,2017,40(2):108-111.
[9]刘鸿优,彭召方.中国足球超级联赛致胜关键指标探析[J].中国体育科技,2016,52(3):104-109.
[10] Liu H,Gómez M,Gon9alves B,et al. Technical performance and match-to-match variation in elite football teams[J]. Journal of Sports Sciences,2016,34(6):509-518.
[11]Bush M,Barnes C,Archer D T,et al. Evolution of match performance parameters for various playing positions in the English Premier League[J]. Human Movement Science,2015,2(39):1-11.
[12]赵刚,陈超.足球比赛表现研究方法和评价指标体系研究[J].体育科学,2015,35(4):72-81.
[13]Boyko R. H.,Boyko A. R.,&Boyko M. G. Referee bias contributes to home advantage in English premiership football[J]. Journal of Sports Sciences,2007,25(11):1185-1194.
[14] Polard R. Home advantage in football:A current review of an unsolved puzzle[J]. The Open Sports Sciences Journal,2008(1):12-14.
[15]刘鸿优,易清,康辉.欧洲足球冠军联赛主场优势的判别分析[J].武汉体育学院学报,2014,48(11):91-95.