新兴农业技术扩散的时空规律——以农用无人机专利技术为例
|
摘要
在农业现代化进程中,新兴农业技术的开发、扩散与推广应用起着至关重要的作用。农用无人机技术在我国新兴农业技术中有着代表性的意义,在此以其为例,探索新兴农业技术扩散的时空规律。空间维度,建构拟合技术扩散规律的BASS、MI和SWMI模型;时间维度,建构拟合技术发展生命周期的Logistic模型;时空维度,进行新兴农业技术在空间维的分布规律与时间维的演化规律。研究结果表明:新兴农业技术的空间扩散机制受到外部和内部的双重影响,呈现出较为显著的空间聚集效应;率先开展农用无人机技术开发的省市主要是东中部地区,西部地区在该技术领域相对薄弱;新兴农业技术在时间维的扩散机制遵循萌芽期、成长期、成熟期和衰退期的生命周期规律,而且我国新兴农业技术扩散的生命周期较短。根据研究结论,提出三点政策建议,对于我国更好地统筹与协调省际间新兴农业技术扩散具有启示作用。
The development,diffusion and popularization and application of emerging agricultural technologies is important to agricultural modernization. Since agricultural drones can be representative to the emerging agricultural technologies,it is taken to be an example for exploring space-time laws of emerging agricultural technology diffusion. From space dimension,BASS,MI and SWMI models were constructed to fit the laws; From time dimension,Logistic model was used to develop its life cycle.From space-time perspectives,the distribution and evolution laws of emerging agricultural technologies were discovered. The results showed that: internal and external factors influenced the space diffusion mechanism and made the emerging agricultural technologies spatially gathering; the provinces from east and middle regions initiatively developed patent technologies of agricultural drones while the provinces from west region were weak in this field; the time diffusion laws can be described as a life cycle including stages of germination,growth,maturity and recession,and this cycle was relatively short. Three policies were presented according to these conclusions to provide enlightenment for better planning and coordinating the diffusion of emerging agricultural technologies between provinces.
The development,diffusion and popularization and application of emerging agricultural technologies is important to agricultural modernization. Since agricultural drones can be representative to the emerging agricultural technologies,it is taken to be an example for exploring space-time laws of emerging agricultural technology diffusion. From space dimension,BASS,MI and SWMI models were constructed to fit the laws; From time dimension,Logistic model was used to develop its life cycle.From space-time perspectives,the distribution and evolution laws of emerging agricultural technologies were discovered. The results showed that: internal and external factors influenced the space diffusion mechanism and made the emerging agricultural technologies spatially gathering; the provinces from east and middle regions initiatively developed patent technologies of agricultural drones while the provinces from west region were weak in this field; the time diffusion laws can be described as a life cycle including stages of germination,growth,maturity and recession,and this cycle was relatively short. Three policies were presented according to these conclusions to provide enlightenment for better planning and coordinating the diffusion of emerging agricultural technologies between provinces.
引文
[1]喻登科,彭静,涂国平,等.我国农业技术扩散环境的评价研究[J].数学的实践与认识,2018,48(6):43-57.
[2]喻登科,彭静,刘彦宏,等.国内外农业技术扩散研究的趋势分析与热点比较[J].农业图书情报学刊,2018,30(2):6-17.
[3]杨陆强,果霖,朱加繁,等.我国农用无人机发展概况与展望[J].农机化研究,2017,39(8):6-11.
[4]李健康,许四洋,张政宝.九个常用中国专利检索网站比较研究[J].图书馆论坛,2010,30(6):191-200.
[5]向希尧,蔡虹.Bass模型族有关技术扩散社会化过程的研究:从社会资本角度的认识[J].科技管理研究,2008,28(11):34-35,39.
[6]孙德忠,周荣,喻登科.高校与非高校上市公司专利技术扩散网络模型[J].科学学与科学技术管理,2014,35(1):57-65.
[7]黄玮强,庄新田.复杂社会网络视角下的创新合作与创新扩散[M].北京:中国经济出版社,2012.
[8]LOTFI A.Forecasting technology diffusion:A new generalisation of the logistic model[J].Technology analysis&strategic management,2014,26(8):943-957.
[9]TRAPPEY C V,WU H Y.An evaluation of the time-varying extended logistic,simple logistic,and Gompertz models for forecasting short product lifecycles[J].Advanced engineering informatics,2008,22(4):421-430.
[10]OLSON J A.Generalized least squares and maximum likelihood estimation of the logistic function for technology diffusion[J].Technological forecasting&social change,1982,21(3):241-249.
[11]武增海,李涛.高新技术开发区综合绩效空间分布研究:基于自然断点法的分析[J].统计与信息论坛,2013,28(3):82-88.
[12]付敏杰.市场化改革进程中的财政政策周期特征转变[J].财贸经济,2014,35(10):17-31.
[13]黄鲁成,蔡爽.基于专利的技术跃迁实证研究[J].科研管理,2009,30(2):64-69.
[14]李小帆,付书科,金明浩,等.专利分布不均衡与区域经济集聚增长:基于长江经济带的实证[J].商业经济研究,2017(23):153-156.
[15]程妮,刘航.基于专利引文的农业知识转移研究现状——2011年中国“收获和割草”专利分析[J].现代情报,2014,34(6):79-86,91.
[2]喻登科,彭静,刘彦宏,等.国内外农业技术扩散研究的趋势分析与热点比较[J].农业图书情报学刊,2018,30(2):6-17.
[3]杨陆强,果霖,朱加繁,等.我国农用无人机发展概况与展望[J].农机化研究,2017,39(8):6-11.
[4]李健康,许四洋,张政宝.九个常用中国专利检索网站比较研究[J].图书馆论坛,2010,30(6):191-200.
[5]向希尧,蔡虹.Bass模型族有关技术扩散社会化过程的研究:从社会资本角度的认识[J].科技管理研究,2008,28(11):34-35,39.
[6]孙德忠,周荣,喻登科.高校与非高校上市公司专利技术扩散网络模型[J].科学学与科学技术管理,2014,35(1):57-65.
[7]黄玮强,庄新田.复杂社会网络视角下的创新合作与创新扩散[M].北京:中国经济出版社,2012.
[8]LOTFI A.Forecasting technology diffusion:A new generalisation of the logistic model[J].Technology analysis&strategic management,2014,26(8):943-957.
[9]TRAPPEY C V,WU H Y.An evaluation of the time-varying extended logistic,simple logistic,and Gompertz models for forecasting short product lifecycles[J].Advanced engineering informatics,2008,22(4):421-430.
[10]OLSON J A.Generalized least squares and maximum likelihood estimation of the logistic function for technology diffusion[J].Technological forecasting&social change,1982,21(3):241-249.
[11]武增海,李涛.高新技术开发区综合绩效空间分布研究:基于自然断点法的分析[J].统计与信息论坛,2013,28(3):82-88.
[12]付敏杰.市场化改革进程中的财政政策周期特征转变[J].财贸经济,2014,35(10):17-31.
[13]黄鲁成,蔡爽.基于专利的技术跃迁实证研究[J].科研管理,2009,30(2):64-69.
[14]李小帆,付书科,金明浩,等.专利分布不均衡与区域经济集聚增长:基于长江经济带的实证[J].商业经济研究,2017(23):153-156.
[15]程妮,刘航.基于专利引文的农业知识转移研究现状——2011年中国“收获和割草”专利分析[J].现代情报,2014,34(6):79-86,91.