基于云模型的装备研制阶段技术风险评估模型
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摘要
针对装备研制阶段技术风险评估,基于云模型理论建立一种装备研制阶段技术风险评估模型。归纳评估指标与技术风险之间的定性知识规则,根据知识规则集对关键技术风险指标进行映射器设计,得到了技术风险指标与技术风险之间的非线性映射关系,建立技术风险概率和影响评估模型,通过模型对关键技术的风险概率和影响进行评估,发现同一风险的概率值和影响值之间存在差异,说明了对风险概率和影响分别讨论和评估的必要性。研究结果表明:该模型实现了对技术风险概率和影响的量化评估,对装备研制技术风险防范和处置具有指导意义。
Aiming at the technical risk assessment in the development stage of the equipment, based on the cloud model theory, the qualitative knowledge rules between the induction and evaluation index and the technical risk are summarized, and the mapping agent of the key technology risk index is designed based on the knowledge rule set, got the non-linear mapping relationship between technical risk index and the technical risk, established technical risk probability and influence assessment model. Through the model, the risk probability and influence of the key technology are evaluated, and it is found that there is a difference between the probability value and the influence value of the same risk, and the necessity of discussing and evaluating the risk probability and influence separately is explained. The research results show that the model realizes the quantization evaluation of technical risk probability and influence, and it can guides the equipment development technology risk prevention and treatment.
Aiming at the technical risk assessment in the development stage of the equipment, based on the cloud model theory, the qualitative knowledge rules between the induction and evaluation index and the technical risk are summarized, and the mapping agent of the key technology risk index is designed based on the knowledge rule set, got the non-linear mapping relationship between technical risk index and the technical risk, established technical risk probability and influence assessment model. Through the model, the risk probability and influence of the key technology are evaluated, and it is found that there is a difference between the probability value and the influence value of the same risk, and the necessity of discussing and evaluating the risk probability and influence separately is explained. The research results show that the model realizes the quantization evaluation of technical risk probability and influence, and it can guides the equipment development technology risk prevention and treatment.
引文
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[6]YANG B,TIAN Y Q,ZHU Z Y.Generalization-based discovery of spatial association rules with linguistic cloud model[J].Systems Engineering and Electronics,2004,15(4):728-734.
[7]傅新平,胡伶俐.基于云模型的综合交通系统服务水平评价[C].2007年海峡两岸智能运输系统学术研讨会,2007.
[8]HAN X J,YAN Y,CHENG C,et al.Monitoring of oxygen content in the flue gas at a coal-fired power plant using cloud modeling techniques[J].IEEE Transactions on Instrumentation and Measurement,2014,63(4):953-963.
[9]JIN B,WANG Y,LIU Z Y,et al.A trust model based on cloud model and bayesian networks[J].Procedia Environmental Sciences,2011,11(1):452-459.
[10]张国英,沙云,刘旭红.高维云模型及其在多属性评价中的应用[J].北京理工大学学报,2004,24(12):1065-1069.
[11]刘琪,刘晓青.正态云隶属度函数确定的FSM方法[J].自动化仪表,2012,33(2):16-18.
[12]LIU X N,PENG Z H,DENG F,et al.A threat assessment method based on cloud model and particle swarm optimization[C]//Proc.of the 2013 IEEE 25th Chinese Conference on Control and Decision.Guiyang,China:IEEE Press,2013:3560-3564.
[13]杨柳,吕英华.基于云模型的网络风险评估技术研究[J].计算机仿真,2010,27(10):95-98.
[14]吴晓庆.基于传输时延的网络控制系统中云模型控制器的研究[D].南通:江苏科技大学,2007.
[15]YIN G Y,ZHOU S L,ZHANG W G.A threat assessment algorithm based on AHP and principal components analysis[J].Procedia Engineering,2011,(15):4590-4596.
[16]DU X Y,YIN Q J,HUANG K D,et al.Transformation between qualitative variables and quantity based on cloud models and its application[J].Systems Engineering and Electronics,2008,30(4):772-776.
[17]Risk management guide for DoD acquisition[Z].Defense System Management College Press,2003.
[18]TIAN Y Q,LI Z,ZHU Z Y.Building a tax predictive model based on the cloud neural network[J].Systems Engineering and Electronics,2003,14(3):81-86.
[19]张伟.基于云模型的雷达辐射源威胁评估与干扰决策研究[D].烟台:海军航空工程学院,2014.
[20]卜广志.武器装备体系的技术成熟度评估方法[J].系统工程理论与实践,2011,31(10):1994-2000.