全球价值链视角下中国国内价值链分工测算研究
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摘要
本文通过构建一个包含国内省际投入产出模型的国际投入产出模型,拓展了关于贸易增加值的WWZ分解方法,提出国内省份对外贸易(出口、省际调出)分解的统一框架,分析国内不同区域参与全球价值链和国内价值链的状况;通过价值链参与的国际国内比较总结了相关的典型化事实。根据这些研究本文发现:改革开放以来中国的区域分工形成了一种类似于"哑铃型"分工模式;国内价值链与全球价值链具有较强的正相关关系;三大增长极对周边地区的辐射带动作用十分明显;垂直专业化指数同发展水平之间呈"倒U"型关系。
By compiling an international input-output model which includes the domestic inter-provincial input-output model,this paper proposes a uniform framework of decomposition of external trade( including international export and inter-provincial export) by expanding the WWZ decomposition method of trade in value added. Based on this framework,this paper investigates the participation of domestic provinces in global value chains and domestic value chain. According to the empirical result,the paper draws the following conclusions:the regional specialization in China is characterized by"dumbbell-shaped"; the spillover effect of provincial international export is positively correlated with its DVC participation; the three economic circles( Jing Jin Ji Area,Yangtze River Delta and Pearl River Delta)have significant spillover effects on the surrounding areas; andthe VS index and per capita show an "inverse U"relationship.
By compiling an international input-output model which includes the domestic inter-provincial input-output model,this paper proposes a uniform framework of decomposition of external trade( including international export and inter-provincial export) by expanding the WWZ decomposition method of trade in value added. Based on this framework,this paper investigates the participation of domestic provinces in global value chains and domestic value chain. According to the empirical result,the paper draws the following conclusions:the regional specialization in China is characterized by"dumbbell-shaped"; the spillover effect of provincial international export is positively correlated with its DVC participation; the three economic circles( Jing Jin Ji Area,Yangtze River Delta and Pearl River Delta)have significant spillover effects on the surrounding areas; andthe VS index and per capita show an "inverse U"relationship.
引文
[1]UNCTAD,World Investment Report 2013:Global Value Chains-Investment and Trade for Development[EB/OL].unctad.org/en/Publications Library/wir2013_en.pdf,2013
[2]张少军,李善同.中国省际贸易的演变趋势、特征与展望:1987-2007[J].财贸经济,2013,(10):100-107
[3]Koopman R.,Wang Z.,Wei S.Tracing Value-added and Double Counting in Gross Exports[J].American Economic Review,2014,104(2):459-494
[4]Yi K.Can Vertical Specialization Explain the Growth of World Trade?[J].Journal of Political Economy,2003,111(1):52-102
[5]Koopman R.,Wang Z.,Wei S.Estimating Domestic Content in Exports When Processing Trade Is Pervasive[J].Journal of Development Economics,2012,99(1):178-189
[6]Wang Z.,Wei S.,Zhu K.Quantifying International Production Sharing at the Bilateral and Sector Levels[R].NBER Working Paper,2013
[7]王直,魏尚进,祝坤福.总贸易核算法:官方贸易统计与全球价值链的度量[J].中国社会科学,2015,(9):108-127
[8]潘文卿,李跟强.垂直专业化,贸易增加值与增加值贸易核算---全球价值链背景下基于国家(地区)间投入产出模型方法综述[J].经济学报,2014,1(4):188-207
[9]柴斌锋,杨高举.高技术产业全球价值链与国内价值链的互动---基于非竞争型投入占用产出模型的分析[J].科学学研究,2011,29(4):533-540
[10]张少军,刘志彪.国内价值链是否对接了全球价值链[J].国际贸易问题,2013,(2):14-27
[11]Meng B.,Wang Z.,Koopman R.How are Global Value Chains Fragmented and Extended in China’s Domestic Production Networks?[R].IDE Discussion Papers,2013
[12]苏庆义.中国省级出口的增加值分解及其应用[J].经济研究,2016,51(1):84-98
[13]李跟强,潘文卿.国内价值链如何嵌入全球价值链:增加值的视角[J].管理世界,2016,(7):10-22
[14]李善同.2007中国区域扩展投入产出表[M].北京:经济科学出版社,2016
[15]Hummels D.,Ishii J.,Yi K.The Nature and Growth of Vertical Specialization in World Trade[J].Journal of International Economics,2001,54:75-96
(1)2007年全球投入产出表来源于欧盟资助全球投入产出表项目编制全球投入产出表数据库2013版,详见www.wiod.org。
(2)世界银行编,胡光宇等译,《2009年世界银行发展报告:重塑世界经济地理》,清华大学出版社,2009年。
[2]张少军,李善同.中国省际贸易的演变趋势、特征与展望:1987-2007[J].财贸经济,2013,(10):100-107
[3]Koopman R.,Wang Z.,Wei S.Tracing Value-added and Double Counting in Gross Exports[J].American Economic Review,2014,104(2):459-494
[4]Yi K.Can Vertical Specialization Explain the Growth of World Trade?[J].Journal of Political Economy,2003,111(1):52-102
[5]Koopman R.,Wang Z.,Wei S.Estimating Domestic Content in Exports When Processing Trade Is Pervasive[J].Journal of Development Economics,2012,99(1):178-189
[6]Wang Z.,Wei S.,Zhu K.Quantifying International Production Sharing at the Bilateral and Sector Levels[R].NBER Working Paper,2013
[7]王直,魏尚进,祝坤福.总贸易核算法:官方贸易统计与全球价值链的度量[J].中国社会科学,2015,(9):108-127
[8]潘文卿,李跟强.垂直专业化,贸易增加值与增加值贸易核算---全球价值链背景下基于国家(地区)间投入产出模型方法综述[J].经济学报,2014,1(4):188-207
[9]柴斌锋,杨高举.高技术产业全球价值链与国内价值链的互动---基于非竞争型投入占用产出模型的分析[J].科学学研究,2011,29(4):533-540
[10]张少军,刘志彪.国内价值链是否对接了全球价值链[J].国际贸易问题,2013,(2):14-27
[11]Meng B.,Wang Z.,Koopman R.How are Global Value Chains Fragmented and Extended in China’s Domestic Production Networks?[R].IDE Discussion Papers,2013
[12]苏庆义.中国省级出口的增加值分解及其应用[J].经济研究,2016,51(1):84-98
[13]李跟强,潘文卿.国内价值链如何嵌入全球价值链:增加值的视角[J].管理世界,2016,(7):10-22
[14]李善同.2007中国区域扩展投入产出表[M].北京:经济科学出版社,2016
[15]Hummels D.,Ishii J.,Yi K.The Nature and Growth of Vertical Specialization in World Trade[J].Journal of International Economics,2001,54:75-96
(1)2007年全球投入产出表来源于欧盟资助全球投入产出表项目编制全球投入产出表数据库2013版,详见www.wiod.org。
(2)世界银行编,胡光宇等译,《2009年世界银行发展报告:重塑世界经济地理》,清华大学出版社,2009年。