基于鲁棒DEA的新能源电力系统投入产出效率评价研究
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摘要
针对可再生能源发电大规模接入后的新能源电力系统在规划建设过程中的经济性分析和评价问题,文章提出了基于新能源电网投资与运行收益间非线性关系模型的投入产出效率评价模型,为新能源电力系统建设和投资规划提供有效准确的经济性指导;研究了新能源电力系统中可再生能源发电输电线路、变配电设备等基础设施投入与运行经济效益之间的非线性关系,建立了基于DEA决策算法的产出效率评价模型;针对可再生能源发电波动、政策变化、全社会用电量、线损率、供电可靠率等不确定性对新能源电力系统建设投资收益的影响,建立了考虑综合不确定性的产出效率鲁棒评价模型。采用我国部分省级电网的新能源电力系统投入产出数据样本,对建立的鲁棒DEA投入产出效率评价模型进行仿真验证,结果表明,文章提出的新能源电网投入产出效率评价模型能够对电网的投入产出情况作出较为有效的评价。
In view of the economic analysis and evaluation of the new energy power system after large-scale access to renewable energy power systems in the planning and construction process,this paper proposes an input-output efficiency evaluation based on the nonlinear relationship model between investment and operating income of renewable energy power systems. The model provides effective and accurate economic guidance for renewable energy power systems construction and investment planning. To study the nonlinear relationship between infrastructure input and operating economic benefits such as renewable energy power generation transmission lines and power distribution equipment in renewable energy power systems, and establish a production efficiency evaluation model based on DEA decision-making algorithm. The impact of policy changes, total social electricity consumption, line loss rate, power supply reliability and other uncertainties on the investment income of renewable energy power systems construction, a robust evaluation model of output efficiency considering comprehensive uncertainty is established. Some provinces in China The input and output data samples of the new energy power system of the grid are simulated and verified by the robust DEA input-output efficiency evaluation model. The results show that the proposed renewable energy power systems input-output efficiency evaluation model can be put effectively into production.
In view of the economic analysis and evaluation of the new energy power system after large-scale access to renewable energy power systems in the planning and construction process,this paper proposes an input-output efficiency evaluation based on the nonlinear relationship model between investment and operating income of renewable energy power systems. The model provides effective and accurate economic guidance for renewable energy power systems construction and investment planning. To study the nonlinear relationship between infrastructure input and operating economic benefits such as renewable energy power generation transmission lines and power distribution equipment in renewable energy power systems, and establish a production efficiency evaluation model based on DEA decision-making algorithm. The impact of policy changes, total social electricity consumption, line loss rate, power supply reliability and other uncertainties on the investment income of renewable energy power systems construction, a robust evaluation model of output efficiency considering comprehensive uncertainty is established. Some provinces in China The input and output data samples of the new energy power system of the grid are simulated and verified by the robust DEA input-output efficiency evaluation model. The results show that the proposed renewable energy power systems input-output efficiency evaluation model can be put effectively into production.
引文
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[8] P Chitkara. A data envelopment analysis approach to evaluation of operational inefficiencies in power generating units:a case study of Indian power plants[J].Power Systems, IEEE Transactions on, 1999, 1(2):419-425.
[9]龙望成.基于DEA模型评价电网投入产出效率方法研究[J].山东电力技术,2014,2014(3):21-24.
[2]许丹,王斌,张加力,等.特高压直流外送风光火电力一体化调度计划模型[J].电力系统自动化,2016(6):25-29.
[3]许丹,姜曼,郑晓雨,等.含多端柔性直流电网的调度计划优化建模[J].电力系统自动化,2017(23):28-34.
[4]王海燕.基于数据包络分析的地区电网投入产出效率评价研究[J].四川电力技术,2016(12):78-84.
[5]胡婷.DEA在电网企业投入产出绩效评价中的应用研究[J].管理观察,2014(8):88-91.
[6] Alexander Vaninsky.Efficiency of electric power generation in the United States:analysis and forecast based on data envelopment analysis[J].Energy Economics,2006(2):326-338.
[7]王恩创,任玉珑,朱春波.基于模糊DEA的配电网投入产出综合效率评估[J].工业工程与管理,2009(4):81-87.
[8] P Chitkara. A data envelopment analysis approach to evaluation of operational inefficiencies in power generating units:a case study of Indian power plants[J].Power Systems, IEEE Transactions on, 1999, 1(2):419-425.
[9]龙望成.基于DEA模型评价电网投入产出效率方法研究[J].山东电力技术,2014,2014(3):21-24.